Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.45% at 7551.75 from Tuesday lower by -0.45% at 7585.73.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 7500 from 7600. Resistance is now at 7600 from 7700. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7500.
- The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index ETF) sees support now at 700 from 710. Resistance is now at 710 from 720 as the QQQ closed higher at 704.72.
- Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.967% from 4.967%.
Executive Summary:
- Stocks move into a one-week losing streak with the S&P 500 falling -0.80% in the last week, ended 9/11.
- U.S. moves into Week 30 of its attack on Iran, six months. Iran is attacking U.S. assets in the Gulf.
- The S&P 500 is now on a 3-day losing streak.
Key Geopolitical Events of Note
- Economic news of note.
- Weekly – Jobless Claims, Natural Gas Inventories of note.
- Monthly- Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Index and Pending Home Sales of note.
- Treasury Auctions:
- 10-Year TIPS Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
- President Trump’s schedule:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Receives his Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
- Signs Executive Orders at 5:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Tele-Rally at 6:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Rose Garden Dinner at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
- Fed and Other Speakers of Note:
- Blackout Period is over.
Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:
- IPO Filings & News: due out this week: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- BCBP launches common stock offering.
- JILL files for 5,000,000 share common stock offering; also files for 7,338,933 share common stock offering by selling stockholder.
- Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
- Peabody (BTU) to redeem all 3.250% convertible senior notes due 2028.
- HALO proposes $1.05 billion convertible senior notes offering due 2033.
- Private Placement: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders:
- DSP files prospectus supplement; relates to 8.5 million offering by selling stockholder.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- BUSE files mixed securities shelf offering.
AFTER THE CLOSE:
- Earnings After The Close:
- Beats: None of note.
- Misses: LEN -0.05 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Movers from last night:
- Pops: GNRC+35.0%,
- Drops: FLNC -16.8%, DSP -11.2%, BCBP -3.8%, LEN -2.6%, HALO -2.3%.
- News After The Close
- Bitdeer (BTDR) mined 1,310 bitcoins in August, up 249% from a year earlier, while AI Cloud annual recurring revenue rose to about $86 million from about $76 million in July.
- AGNC will be added to the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the open on Monday, Sept. 21, as part of S&P Dow Jones Indices’ September quarterly rebalance.
- Amer Sports (AS) raises Q3 revenue growth view, reiterates 5-year algorithm.
- CACI wins USCENTCOM contract with $1.5 billion ceiling.
- President Trump posts on Truth Social that rates should be “1% or less” because the U.S. has “best credit in the world”.
- Pan American Silver (PAAS) reports 2026 reserves of 511.1 million oz silver and 6.3 million oz gold.
- Banks raise prime rate to 7.00% from 6.75%.
- Exxon (XOM) nearing potential oil-field investment deal in Venezuela.
- Generac (GNRC) enters long-term supply deal with Amazon tied to up to $8 billion of generator purchases.
- Executive Changes of Note: None of note.
- Dividends Going Ex
- Dividends Going Ex on Thursday: HD: $2.33 | FDS: $1.16 | MC: $0.65 | EXPE: $0.48 | CRM: $0.44 | CHMG: $0.32 | OTCM: $0.30 | KRO: $0.05 | PSEC: $0.045
- Dividends Going Ex on Friday: QSR: $0.65 | IFF: $0.40 | SUNB: $0.30 | ESP: $0.25 | QCRH: $0.15 | TPB: $0.08
- FAF increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.61 per share from $0.55 per share.
- Buybacks of Note:
- APA increases share repurchase authorization by 40 million shares.
What’s Happening This Morning:
Futures S&P 500 +62.50, NASDAQ 100 +310.50 and Dow Jones +377. Europe is higher and Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.984% from 4.983% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold and Silver are lower with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $76,274 from $75,889
Sector Action: Healthcare, Biotech, Technology, Semiconductors rose on Wednesday.
- One-Month Winners: Energy and Communication Services of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Healthcare and Energy of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Communication Services of note.
- Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Healthcare of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Thursday After the Close: None of note.
- Friday Before The Open: None of note.
Insider Activity: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: None of note.
- Missed: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: None of note
- Mixed –None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.
Advance/Decline Line Chart: Hits a new multi-month low, last seen in April.
Economic & Geopolitical
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
- Out of the blackout period.
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Receives his Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
- Signs Executive Orders at 5:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Tele-Rally at 6:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Rose Garden Dinner at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly – Jobless Claims and Natural Gas Inventories of note.
- Monthly-
- August Housing Starts is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 1,325,000 from 1,239,000.
- September Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to drop to 35 from 47.40.
- August Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to improve to 0.5% from -2.3%.
M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.
Pre-Market Changes:
- Higher: GNRC +34.1%, VICR +11.8%, GFL +8.0%, NOK +6.1%, TSEM +6.0%, CEPU +5.2%, BTDR +4.4%, IQMX +3.6%, SNAP +3.5%, VITL +3.2%, INTC +2.7%, SKHY +2.6%, COIN +2.4%, AMD +2.3%, GLOB +2.3%, HOOD +2.3%, APO +2.2%, AEM +2.2%, PAAS +2.0%,
- Lower: FLNC -21.9%, DSP -7.9%, YETI -5.0%, IPHA -4.0%, UIS -2.4%, BCBP -2.4%, LEN -2.2%
Moving Averages Summary: Stocks are at 23% from 26% above their respective moving averages and Bonds are still at 0%, unchanged.
Rags & Mags:
- President Trump planning to meet Gulf leaders next week. (Axios)
- President Trump is set to convene with key leaders from Gulf Cooperation Council nations next week to discuss regional security frameworks, energy trade stability, and joint economic investments.
- EU restricts social media access for children. (Release)
- European regulators have rolled out stringent new digital safety rules requiring social media platforms to implement strict age verification and curb algorithmic recommendation feeds targeted at minors.
- Bank of England left rates unchanged. (CNBC)
- The Bank of England held its benchmark interest rate steady today, opting for a wait-and-see stance as policymakers balance persistent services inflation against cooling labor market momentum
- Mark Walter sells stake in Chelsea Soccer Club. (CNBC)
- Guggenheim Partners CEO Mark Walter has agreed to divest his minority ownership stake in Chelsea FC to fellow co-owners, consolidating the Premier League club’s control within Clearlake Capital and Todd Boehly’s group.
- Warsh Takes Hawkish Turn. (WSJ)
- Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a more aggressive monetary stance following a rate increase, citing persistent energy shocks and indicating policy remains insufficiently restrictive to curb inflation.
- Global Economy Running Out of Wiggle Room. (NYT)
- Rising public debt, persistent trade tensions, and escalating geopolitical shocks are leaving central banks and governments with minimal fiscal and monetary flexibility to manage an unexpected downturn.
- Treasuries Gain As Confidence in Warsh Grows. (Bloomberg)
- Sovereign bond markets rallied as fixed-income investors welcomed Chairman Warsh’s resolute commitment to price stability, betting that proactive policy tightening will successfully anchor long-term inflation expectations.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Citizens Ophthalmology Summit
- dbAccess Healthcare Summit
- Goldman Sachs Americas Financial Technology Conference
- Keybanc Energy Transition Symposium
- Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference
- Needham’s Defense Tech
- Oppenheimer Targeted Radiopharmaceutical Therapies in Oncology Summit
- TD Cowen Forest Products & Packaging Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor: AS, DCO, KOP, NVST, YETI, EAT, HUBS, THG, INTU, BAM note.
- Shareholder Meetings: LVO SNGX TTWO of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- Salesforce Dreamforce (CRM)
- StoneX TMT One-on-One Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Upgrades: HAE HAWK SUNB of note.
Downgrades: FLNC MWA of note.