Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Tuesday lower by -0.45% at 7585.73 from Monday lower by -0.48% at 7619.98.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 7500 from 7600. Resistance is now at 7600 from 7700. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7500.
- The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index ETF) sees support now at 700 from 710. Resistance is now at 710 from 720 as the QQQ closed lower at 704.54.
- Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.967% from 5.00%.
Executive Summary:
- Stocks move into a one-week losing streak with the S&P 500 falling -0.80% in the last week, ended 9/11.
- U.S. moves into Week 30 of its attack on Iran, six months. Iran is attacking U.S. assets in the Gulf.
- The S&P 500 is now on a 1-day losing streak.
Key Geopolitical Events of Note
- Economic news of note.
- Weekly – Crude Oil Inventories of note.
- Monthly- Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices and NAHB Housing Market Index of note.
- Treasury Auctions:
- 17-Week Bill: Closes at 11:30 AM EDT (Settlement: Tuesday, September 22)
- President Trump’s schedule:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Photo Opportunity at 1:30 p.m. EDT and 2:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in Signing Time at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
- Heads to Gaston, North Carolina to Deliver Remarks at 7: 00 p.m. EDT.
- Fed and Other Speakers of Note:
- The latest FOMC Rate Decision is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT and Fed Chairman Warsh speaks at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:
- IPO Filings & News: due out this week: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- BBNX launches $125 million common stock offering.
- Notes Filed Or Priced:
- AXON – Pricing of $1.0 Billion Offering of 0% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2031.
- EXE – Announces Pricing of Senior Notes Offering.
- NVT – Prices $800.0 Million Senior Notes Offering.
- SABR – Pricing of Upsized Senior Secured Notes Offering.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note
- Private Placement:
- MYSZ – $2.5 Million Private Placement Priced At-the-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders:
- MGY files for 32,203,000 share common stock offering by selling stockholders.
- HOS also files for 154,998,859 share common stock offering by selling stockholders.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- HOS files mixed securities shelf offering.
AFTER THE CLOSE:
- Earnings After The Close:
- Beats: TCOM +1.33 of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Movers from last night:
- Pops: FTAI +2.6%.
- Drops: BBNX -8.8%.
- News After The Close
- Germany’s Federal Ministry of the Interior awarded Planet (PL) a Satellite Services tender for exclusive access to a dedicated satellite constellation and a European-hosted Earth observation platform.
- SPX Technologies (SPXC) acquires FIS Water for about $410 million cash.
- Worthington Enterprises (WOR) announces plans to host an Investor and Analyst Day on November 10, its first Investor Day since October 2023.
- US wants Mexico to tighten rules on Chinese AI hardware exports. (WSJ)
- Executive Changes of Note:
- Jamie Anderson has been promoted to president of FFBC and the Bank.
- RTX names Jill Albertelli president of Pratt & Whitney, effective Jan. 1.
- Dividends Going Ex
- Dividends Going Ex on Wednesday: MSI: $1.21 | FNF: $0.52 | AIG: $0.50 | OLED: $0.50 | NMFC: $0.25 | WU: $0.235 | DIN: $0.19 | GAB: $0.15 | HRZN: $0.06
- Dividends Going Ex on Thursday: HD: $2.33 | FDS: $1.16 | MC: $0.65 | EXPE: $0.48 | CRM: $0.44 | CHMG: $0.32 | OTCM: $0.30 | KRO: $0.05 | PSEC: $0.045
- Buybacks of Note:
- FTAI authorizes $500 million share repurchase program.
- DHI authorizes additional $5.0 billion share repurchase program.
What’s Happening This Morning:
Futures S&P 500 +19.50, NASDAQ 100 +140 and Dow Jones +113. Europe is higher and Asia is higher. Bond yield is at 4.983% from 5.008% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $75,889 from $76,996.
Sector Action: Energy, Materials and Semiconductors rose on Tuesday.
- One-Month Winners: Energy and Communication Services of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Healthcare and Energy of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Communication Services of note.
- Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Healthcare of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Wednesday After the Close:
- Thursday Before The Open: None of note.
Insider Activity: GIII sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. FCEL sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: None of note.
- Missed: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: None of note
- Mixed –None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.
Advance/Decline Line Chart: Hits a new multi-month low, last seen in April.
Economic & Geopolitical
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
- The latest FOMC Rate Decision is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT and Fed Chairman Warsh speaks at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Photo Opportunity at 1:30 p.m. EDT and 2:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in Signing Time at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
- Heads to Gaston, North Carolina to Deliver Remarks at 7: 00 p.m. EDT.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly – Crude Oil Inventories of note.
- Monthly-
- August Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve from -0.60% to 0.90%.
- August Import and Export Prices are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and last month they came in at -0.40% and -1.30%.
- September NAHB Housing Market Index are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to drop to 34 from 35.
M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.
Pre-Market Changes:
- Higher: RLGT +13.5%,
- Lower: ENVA -16.2%,
Moving Averages Summary: Stocks are at 23% from 26% above their respective moving averages and Bonds are still at 0%, unchanged.
Rags & Mags:
- Canada invited to become first “Associate Member” of the European Union. (CNBC)
- Intel (INTC) and SK Hynix (SKYH) are discussing U.S. chip manufacturing. (CNBC)
- Saudis Say Houthis Targeted Mecca With Drones, Iran Says Houthis Did Not. (CNBC)
- Americans Have Spent $100 billion More on Fuel During Iran War. (WSJ).
- It’s Already Too Late To Stop The AI Threat, Ope-Ed By Thomas Friedman. (NYT)
- Nvidia President to Attend Dinner with President Trump and President Xi of China. (Bloomberg)
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Barclays Financial Services Conference
- BAC Global CEO Real Estate Conference
- Baird Marketing & Commerce Solutions Symposium
- Goldman Sachs Americas Financial Technology Conference
- H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
- Jefferies Healthcare Services and Technology Conference
- Jefferies Fintech Conference
- JP Morgan New England Utilities Mini-Forum
- Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
- Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference
- Piper Growth Frontiers Conference
- Truist Technology Symposium
- Top Analyst, Investor: OSCR, WPM, ABOS, KOP, ON, CRM, RNAZ, WAVE note.
- Shareholder Meetings: CRBG HLI LW SCHL of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- Salesforce Dreamforce (CRM)
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Upgrades: UNP of note.
Downgrades: AVAL BAK CLLS EXPE of note.