CAPIS Morning Note – 09/15/26: FOMC Starts Meeting, Stocks Lower, Bond Rates Higher

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.48% at 7619.98 from Friday higher by 0.86% at 7656.98. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7600 from 7500. Resistance is now at 7700 from 7600. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7500. The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.48% at 7619.98 from Friday higher by 0.86% at 7656.98.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7600 from 7500. Resistance is now at 7700 from 7600. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7500.
  • The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index ETF) sees support now at 700 from 710. Resistance is now at 710 from 720 as the QQQ closed lower at 709.18
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.967% from 4.967%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks move into a one-week losing streak with the S&P 500 falling -0.80% in the last week, ended 9/11.
  • U.S. moves into Week 30 of its attack on Iran, six months. Iran is attacking U.S. assets in the Gulf.
  • The S&P 500 is now on a 1-day losing streak. 

Key Geopolitical Events of Note

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly – API Petroleum Institute Data of note.
    • Monthly- Empire State Manufacturing of note.
  • Treasury Auctions:
    • 42-Day Bill (6-Week): Auction closes at 11:30 AM EDT (Settlement: Thursday, September 17)
    • 20-Year Bond Reopening (US Treasury Bond): Auction closes at 1:00 PM EDT (Settlement: Friday, September 18)
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Photo Opportunity at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Press Briefing by the Attorney General of the United States, Todd Blanche at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Fed and Other Speakers of Note: 
    • Federal Reserve Speakers are in blackout through September 15th.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News: due out this week: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • PMTS closes 2.69 million-share secondary offering priced at $21.50 per share; over-allotment fully exercised.
    • SYY launches $1.0 billion common stock offering.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BNTC files for $200 million mixed securities shelf offering.

AFTER THE CLOSE:

  • Earnings After The Close:
    • Beats: None of note.
    • Misses: PLAY -0.54 of note.
    • Flat: None of note.
  • Movers from last night:
    • Pops: RLGT +9.5%.
    • Drops: ENVA –18.9%, PLAY -12.9%, CTNM -3.8%
  • News After The Close
    • Guardant Health (GH) Shield blood test wins EviCore coverage for colorectal cancer screening.
    • Veracyte (VCYT) acquires Convergent Genomics for $150 mln upfront, adds UroAmp bladder cancer platform.
    • Revolution Medicine (RVMD) had FDA grant Breakthrough Therapy Designation for RASONQUE (daraxonrasib) with gemcitabine and nab-paclitaxel in treatment-naive metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma.
    • Enova International (ENVA) announces it has withdrawn its applications with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System related to the proposed acquisition of Grasshopper Bancorp, Inc.
    • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) outlines restructuring with 90 role cuts, closure of two Maryland labs.
    • Leidos (LDOS) wins $875 mln Navy option-year award on enterprise network contract.
    • Tempus AI (TEM) CEO backs Anthropic’s Dario Amodei in call to slow AI development. (Bloomberg)
    • Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang spoke with President Trump by phone about recent AI concerns. (Axios)
    • LMT awarded a $1.2 bln Army contract for the Precision Strike Missile Increment 2 Early Operational Capability.
  • Executive Changes of Note:
    • QMCO names Mike Heuer CIO.
    • CCI names Kris Hinson CFO effective April 1, 2027; CFO Sunit Patel to retire. 
    • DXCM promotes CFO Jereme Sylvain to COO.
    • FDXF names Michael Rodgers chief commercial and technology officer.
    • TGT names former Hilton marketing chief Mark Weinstein as chief marketing and guest experience officer.
    • CSGP names former Immoweb and Immowelt CEO Felix Kusch president of Homes.com which is a unit of CoStar. 
  • Dividends Going Ex
    • Dividends Going Ex on Tuesday: XEL: $0.59 | KO: $0.53 | ARCC: $0.48 | DVN: $0.32 | BN: $0.27 | FISI: $0.32
    • Dividends Going Ex on Wednesday: MSI: $1.21 | FNF: $0.52 | AIG: $0.50 | OLED: $0.50 | NMFC: $0.25 | WU: $0.235 | DIN: $0.19 | GAB: $0.15 | HRZN: $0.06
  • Buybacks of Note:
    • ENVA intends to accelerate our share repurchase activity for the remainder of 2026.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500-21, NASDAQ 100 -81 and Dow Jones -197. Europe is lower and Asia is lower. Bond yield is at 5.008% from 4.969% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $76,996 from $77,793.

Sector Action:

  • One-Month Winners: Energy and Communication Services of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Healthcare and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Communication Services of note.
  • Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, Technology, Materials, Industrials, Financials and Healthcare of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before The Open: None of note.

Insider Activity: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:  

  • Beat: None of note.
  • Missed: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: None of note
  • Mixed –None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Line Chart:

Economic & Geopolitical

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve Speakers are in blackout through September 15th.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Photo Opportunity at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Press Briefing by the Attorney General of the United States, Todd Blanche at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an Ambassador Credentialing Ceremony at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly – API Petroleum Institute Data of note.
    • Monthly- September Empire State Manufacturing will be out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 14.10 from 20.60.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Pre-Market Changes:

  • Higher:  RLGT +13.5%, AGMB +1.6%, HOS +1.4%, DHT +1.1%, CSGP +1%, VIV +1%, BCE +0.9%, PBF +0.8%, NVDA +0.7%, OUST +0.7%
  • Lower: ENVA -16.2%, PLAY -11.5%, KMTS -8.7%, TRMD -6.3%, ENRD -4.2%, SION -2.9%, SANM -2.9%, CTNM -2.8%, SYY -2.4%, INGM -2.4%

Moving Averages Summary: Stocks are at 26% from 47% above their respective moving averages and Bonds at 0% still unchanged.

Rags & Mags:

  • Iranian Foreign Minister heads to China. (CNBC)
  • CNBC Survery: Fed will hike two times over the next year. (CNBC)
  • Hedge Funds Are The Wild Card In Turbulent Bond Market. (WSJ).
  • Warsh Set For a Showdown With Trump on Rates. (NYT)
  • 10-Year At Highest Since 2007. (Bloomberg)

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Barclays Financial Services Conference
    • BAC Global CEO Real Estate Conference
    • Baird Healthcare Conference
    • GS Global Consumer & Retail Conference
    • H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
    • Jefferies Healthcare Services and Technology Conference
    • Jefferies Fintech Conference
    • Morgan Stanley Latin America Conference
    • Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
    • Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference
    • Oppenheimer Fintech Leaders Conference
    • Piper Growth Frontiers Conference
    • TD Cowen FutureHealth
  • Top Analyst, Investor: CTVA, HLIT, WK, JKHY, NXGL, RGP, SCHW, BHAV note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: HLIT RGP SCHW of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.  None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: CRDF LLY NYT  of note.

Downgrades: RPD of note.