CAPIS Morning Note – 09/10/26: Trump Promises $5K If GOP Wins, Imitating Pappy O’Daniel’s Need For A “Shot In The Arm”

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.48% at 7636.36 from Tuesday lower by -0.58% at 7673.52. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7600 from 7700. Resistance is now at 7700 from 7800. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7600. The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.48% at 7636.36 from Tuesday lower by -0.58% at 7673.52.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7600 from 7700. Resistance is now at 7700 from 7800. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7600.
  • The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index ETF) sees support now at 710 from 700. Resistance is now at 720 from 710 as the QQQ closed lower by -0.29% at 716.31
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.808% from 4.808%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks move into a two-week winning streak with the S&P 500 rising 0.09% in the last week, ended 9/04.
  • U.S. moves into Week 29 of its attack on Iran, six months. Iran is attacking U.S. assets in the Gulf.
  • The S&P 500 is now on a 3-day losing streak. 

Key Geopolitical Events of Note

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly – Crude Oil and Natural Gas Inventories along with Jobless Claims of note.
    • Monthly- PPI and Existing Home Sales
  • 30-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Tours the National Medal of Honor Museum at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Delivers Remarks at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a RNC Roundtable at 6:15 p.m. EDT.
    • Attends the RNC Mid Term Convention at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Gives Closing Remarks at 9:45 p.m. EDT.
  • Fed and Other Speakers of Note: 
    • Federal Reserve Speakers are in blackout through September 15th.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News: due out this week: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • HGTY announces secondary offering of 8.25 million Class A shares.
    • ENB launches C$2.6 billion bought-deal common share offering at C$66.85 per share.
    • PSQL for 17,333,333 ordinary share offering, relates to warrants.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • PSQL also files for 286,674,886 ordinary share offering by selling securityholders.
    • MPLT files for 13,181,055 share common stock offering by selling shareholder.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • INTU files mixed securities shelf offering.

AFTER THE CLOSE:

  • Earnings After The Close:
    • Beats: AEO+0.57, AVAV +0.37, COO +0.03, WLTH +0.02, NAVN +0.01 of note.
    • Misses: None of note.
    • Flat: None of note.
  • Movers After The Close
    • Positive Movers: KNTK +5.2%, GNLX +4%, AVAV +3.5%.
    • Negative Movers: COO -15%, NAVN -14.9%, AEO -9.5%, LMNR -5%, WLTH -3.7%.
  • News After The Close
    • Enbridge (ENB) to buy Tallgrass crude transportation business for $2.55 billion cash.
    • Cooper Companies (COO) completes review, keeps CooperSurgical and boosts buyback authorization to $3 billion from $2 billion.
    • Granite (GVA) wins $23.7 million Glacier National Park road rehabilitation contract.
  • Executive Changes of Note:
    • FBIN names Peter Clifford CFO.
  • Dividends Going Ex
    • Dividends Going Ex on Thursday:  ELV: $1.72 | TRV: $1.25 | OXY: $0.28 | FNV: $0.44 | PPL: $0.28 | TU: $0.14 | UMBF: $0.50 | BPOP: $0.90 | BTG: $0.02 | VCTR: $0.50 | G: $0.19 | YOU: $0.15 | MCY: $0.32 | VFC: $0.09 | ADT: $0.06 | CNO: $0.18 | INSW: $5.05 | VSH: $0.10 | MDU: $0.14 | AMBP: $0.10 | MPT: $0.09 | CASH: $0.05 | TRIN: $0.17
    • Dividends Going Ex on Friday: ADP: $1.70 | THG: $0.95 | WMB: $0.53 | PDI: $0.22 | FHN: $0.17 | JHS: $0.15 | NOV: $0.09
    • IDCC increases quarterly dividend to $0.75 per share from $0.70 per share.
  • Buybacks of Note:
    • MSI boosts share repurchase authorization by $2 billion.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +1, NASDAQ 100 -111, and Dow Jones +99. Europe is mixed and Asia is mixed as well. Bond yield is at 4.865% from 4.808% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $77,995 from $78,788

Sector Action: 

  • One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, B, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close:

  • Friday Before The Open:

Insider Activity: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. Nonesees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:  

  • Beat: LOVE+0.87, M +0.26 of note.
  • Missed: SHOE -0.11 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: MCFT of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: None of note
  • Mixed –None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Line Chart:

Economic & Geopolitical

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve Speakers are in blackout through September 15th.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Tours the National Medal of Honor Museum at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Delivers Remarks at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a RNC Roundtable at 6:15 p.m. EDT.
    • Attends the RNC Mid Term Convention at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Gives Closing Remarks at 9:45 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Monthly
      • August PPI is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.40% from 0.0%.
      • August Existing Home Sales are out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 4.03 million from 4.06 million.
    • Weekly
      • Crude Oil and Natural Gas Inventories as well as Jobless Claims are due out at 7:00 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Pre-Market Changes:

  • Higher: AVAV +6.8%, TORO +5.9%, YB +4.1%, BKD +3.8%, IRON +3.6%, SWMR +3.3%, CDLR +3.2%, KNTK +2.6%, WLTH +2.4%
  • Lower: SHOE -25%, COO-5.1%, NAVN -13.9%, BHVN -13.3%, AEO -12%, LMNR -9.6%, INDP -8.1%, HGTY -5.9%, AXGN -5%, GNLX -3.6%, LEU -3.1%, ENB -2.6%

Moving Averages Summary: Stocks are at 37% from 50% above their respective moving averages and Bonds at 0% from 12%.

Rags & Mags:

  • Macy’s Posts Strong Results, Turnaround Begins To Take Hold. (CNBC)
  • Trump Promises Americans $5,000 if Republicans keep House and Senate. (WSJ).
  • 25 Years after 9/11, Al Qaeda Still Has a Home in Afghanistan. (NYT)
  • Oil Rises Above $102. (Bloomberg)
  •  Market Wrap: US Stocks Eke Out A Gain Before PPI, Tech Earnings. (Bloomberg)

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference
    • Baird Marketing & Commerce Solutions Symposium
    • BAC Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference
    • Cantor Healthcare Conference
    • Citi TMT Conference
    • Citi Biopharma Back to School Conference
    • DB Aviation Forum: Airlines, Lessors, Manufacturers
    • Evercore Real Estate Conference
    • Gabelli Aerospace and Defense Symposium
    • GS Communacopia + Technology Conference
    • Jefferies Global Industrials Conference
    • Jefferies Renewables, Clean Energy & Construction Conference
    • UBS Materials Conference
    • WFC Healthcare Conference
    • Wolfe TMT Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: LH, SEDG, NHIC, OMDA of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: HLNE, KIDZ, OPTT, PLUS, PRSO, RFIL, RKDA, SDOT of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.  None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: CSR OBIO SRG of note.

Downgrades: None of note.