CAPIS Morning Note – 09/04/26: Jobs Friday!

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 1.06% at 7747.71 from Wednesday higher by 0.46% at 7666.60. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7700 from 7600. Resistance is now at 7800 from 7700. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7700. The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 1.06% at 7747.71 from Wednesday higher by 0.46% at 7666.60.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7700 from 7600. Resistance is now at 7800 from 7700. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7700.
  • The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index ETF) sees support now at 710 from 700. Resistance is now at 720 from 710 as the QQQ closed higher by  0.23% at 709.24
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.762% from 4.788%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks move into a one-week winning streak from a one-week losing streak, with the S&P 500 rising 0.48% in the last week, ended 8/28.
  • U.S. moves into Week 28 of its attack on Iran, six months. Now we will try economic sanctions this week.
  • The S&P 500 is now on a 2-day winning streak. 

Key Geopolitical Events of Note

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly – Baker Hughes Rig of note.
    • Monthly –  Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Report of note.
  • 52- Week Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Signs Executive Orders at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Departs for Bedminster, NJ at a time to be determined.
  • Fed and Other Speakers of Note: 
    • Barr at 9:05 a.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News: due out this week:
    • Oura Inc. files IPO prospectus with the SEC; Number of shares offered and expected price range not yet determined.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • BTBT: Form RW.
    • GCL: Form F-3.. Up To 2,201,665 Ordinary Shares.
    • KFY: Form S-3ASR.. 3,118,628 shares of Common Stock.
    • LHSW – Closing of an $11 Million Best-efforts Follow-on Public Offering.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • TME – Pricing of US$1,000 Million Notes Offering.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
    • BILI – Proposed Offerings of US$700 Million Convertible Senior Notes, Concurrent Equity Placement and Concurrent Share Repurchases.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • KFY files for 3,118,628 share common stock offering by selling stockholders
    • AMRX files for 28,942,098 share common stock offering by selling stockholders
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • EP files for $350 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • PHR files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • BROS: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • EP: Form S-3.. $350,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

AFTER THE CLOSE:

  • Earnings After The Close:
    • Beats: LULU +1.13, SWBI +0.12, ZS +0.10, DOCU +0.07, GWRE+0.06, PL +0.04, IOT +0.04, OXM +0.03, AMBA +0.01, ASAN +0.01 of note.
    • Misses: None of note.
    • Flat: PATH of note.
  • Movers From After The Close
    • Positive Movers: IOT +13.7%, SWBI +10.1%, PL +5.5%, DOCU +4.3%
    • Negative Movers: OXM -18.1%, LULU -17.9%, GWRE -15.8%, ASAN -11.9%, PATH -7%, AMBA -5.8%
  • News After The Close
    • lululemon athletica (LULU) prelim Q2 $2.92 vs $1.79 FactSet Consensus; revs $2.42 billion vs $2.46 billion FactSet Consensus.
    • lululemon athletica (LULU) sees Q3 $0.93-0.98 vs $2.40 FactSet Consensus; sees revs $2.29-2.32 billion vs $2.53 billion FactSet Consensus
    • lululemon athletica (LULU) sees FY27 $9.48-9.73 vs $10.84 FactSet Consensus; sees revs $10.35-10.50 billion vs $11.03 billion FactSet Consensus
    • Planet Labs (PL) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q3 revs below consensus; guides FY27 revs in-line.
    • Zscaler (ZS) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; provides Q1 (Mar) and FY27 guidance.
    • Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) reports trading volume for August 2026. (Release)
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) awarded $862.8 million IDIQ Army contract to manufacture, inspect, test, package and deliver M1156 precision guidance kits and variants.
    • TSLA (Tesla): Elon Musk says Tesla is likely to have more than 30,000 highpaying jobs at its Austin headquarters and manufacturing hub by 2028.
  • Executive Changes of Note:
    • TMUS names former Shell (SHEL) CFO Jessica Uhl as CFO designate,
    • WDFC hires former TerrAscend CFO Keith Stauffer as incoming finance chief.
    • RGP CFO Jennifer Ryu resigns; Jessica Block named interim CFO.
    • PATH promotes Hitesh Ramani to CFO, adds Yazdi Bagli to board.
    • RL names Halide Alagoz chief operating and product officer; COO Bob Ranftl to retire – 8-K filing.
    • ADBE names Anil Chakravarthy as next President and CEO; Shantanu Narayen to become Executive Chair on December 1, 2026.
    • PCVX announces the appointments of Luis Jodar, Ph.D. as Chief Medical Officer and David McAvoy, J.D. as Chief Legal Officer..
    • TD: announced senior leadership appointments aimed at accelerating the bank’s broader strategy.
  • Dividends Going Ex
    • Dividends Going Ex on Friday:  GOOG: $0.22 | BAC: $0.32 | PEP: $1.48 | TT: $1.05 | SU: $0.43 | GM: $0.18 | IMO: $0.63 | D: $0.67 | LHX: $1.25 | PYPL: $0.14 | EXC: $0.42 | KMB: $1.28 | NTRS: $0.88 | KHC: $0.40 | TPR: $0.46 | STE: $0.69 | AMCR: $0.65 | GPC: $1.06 | WY: $0.21 | CHRW: $0.63 | KIM: $0.28 | MLI: $0.17 | KNX: $0.20 | ORI: $0.32 | ONB: $0.14 | CBSH: $0.28 | AAON: $0.10 | HWC: $0.50 | OTEX: $0.28 | FLG: $0.01 | OUT: $0.33 | GOLF: $0.26 | SLM: $0.13 | UNF: $0.36 | CRC: $0.41 | LBRT: $0.09 | VGNT: $0.13 | EXPO: $0.31 | FRME: $0.37 | PHIN: $0.30 | STRA: $0.60 | ICFI: $0.14 | MBWM: $0.40
    • Dividends Going Ex on Tuesday: SWK: $0.84 | ITT: $0.39 | MOV: $0.35 | RNP: $0.136
  • Buybacks of Note: None of note

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +6.75 , NASDAQ 100 +154 , and Dow Jones -49 . Europe is higher ex FTSE and Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.766% from 4.774% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $81,041 from $77,843.

Sector Action:                      

  • One-Month Winners: Technoogy, Communication Services, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, B, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close:
  • Tuesday Before The Open:

Insider Activity: PRTA, TSM see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:  

  • Beat: CIEN+0.38, DOO +0.31, MOMO +0.27, VSXY +0.18, BRC +0.01 of note.
  • Missed: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: CPB, TTC and WLY of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: None of note
  • Mixed –None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Line Chart:

Economic & Geopolitical

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • G20 today in Asheville, NC.
    • Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks at 9:05 a.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Signs Executive Orders at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Departs for Bedminster, NJ at a time to be determined.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Monthly
      • August Global U.S. Service PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and last month came in at 56.80.
      • August ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to remain at 54.10%.
    • Weekly
      • Baker Hughes Rig Count due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Pre-Market Changes:

  • Higher: AOUT +24.9%, BBCP +17.7%, IOT +14%, SWBI +13.5%, PL +10.8%, CURV +8.5%, PDEX +7.1%, NX +5.6%, AVXL +4.9%, BETR +4.3%, TTD +3.8%, UMC +3.5%, AMBA +2.6%, BSVN +2.5%, BETA +2.1%,
  • Lower: EGAN -21.7%, LULU -19.4%, GWRE -15.2%, OXM -13.9%, ASAN -12%, PATH -8.3%, BILI -3.7%, ADBE -3.1%, ZS -3%, BALY -2.6%,

Moving Averages Summary: Stocks are at 37% from 22% above their respective moving average and Bonds at 0% still.

Rags & Mags:

  • Jobs Report Due Out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
  • World’s Biggest Soveriegn Wealth Fund to Cut U.S. Treasury holdings. (CNBC)
  • Volkswagen to cut 50,000 jobs due to tariffs. (CNBC)
  • Nvidia investments grow to $99 billion. (CNBC)
  • Global bond sell-off not over says Mohamed El-Erian. (CNBC)
  • Citi: expects U.S. natural gas production to increase and lowered its Q3 2026  Henry Hub forecast to $2.90/MMBtu. The call points to expectations for stronger supply and continued pressure on natural-gas prices.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Klotho Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: None of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: JAGX of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.  None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: SFNC, SNDA of note.

Downgrades: None of note.