CAPIS Morning Note – 09/01/22: Stocks Weak Again, Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. EDT and Job’s Friday Tomorrow Lead End of Week

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3955 (lower by -0.78%) from 3986.16 (lower by -1.10%) from Tuesday. The overnight high of 3961.50 was hit at 4:45 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3921 at 4:45 a.m. EDT, a range of 40 points high to low which is near the recent range of…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 3955 (lower by -0.78%) from 3986.16 (lower by -1.10%) from Tuesday. The overnight high of 3961.50 was hit at 4:45 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3921 at 4:45 a.m. EDT, a range of 40 points high to low which is near the recent range of 45. At 7:20 a.m. EDT the current price was 3932.25 which is -0.61% and -24.25 points. Currently, at 8:00 a.m. EDT the S&P 500 is now down by -12 points.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: GEF +0.35, OKTA +0.20, AI +0.12, PSTG +0.10, MDB +0.05, S +0.05, SMTC +0.02, VEEV +0.02.
  • Flat: CRDO +0.00.
  • Misses: NTNX (0.08), COO (0.04), FIVE (0.04).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ATXI: Filed Form S-1 — Files to Sell Units.
    • BANF: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Files to sell common stock.
    • MKFG: Filed Form S-3.. 4,100,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • QTNT: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 8,494,595 Ordinary Shares.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • HEI: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 576,338 Class A Common Stock by selling shareholder.
    • PAR: Files for 162,917 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • ZFOX:  Files for 16,213,430 share common stock offering, relates to warrants; also files for 118,148,438 share common stock offering by selling shareholders, relates to warrants.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AVDL: Filed Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • AZYO: Filed Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • STRM: Filed Form S-3.. $25 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • COLD: Enters into Floating to Fixed Interest Rate Swaps.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: NTNX +22%, PSTG +6%, ZFOX +5%, ARCT +5%, AMRX +5%, FIVE +5%.
    • Trading Down: ANAB -17%, AI -16%, MDB -13%, OKTA -11%, VEEV -11%, SMTC -7%, AVDL -4%, NVDA -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: OKTA, NTNX, FIVE, DIS, PSTG, MDB (CNBC)
    • SP 500 loses 4.24% in August — Nasdaq down -5.22%.
    • Netflix (NFLX) Seeking Top Dollar for Brands to Advertise on Its Service. (WSJ)
    • Disney (DIS) Explores Membership Program Like Amazon Prime to Offer Discounts and Perks. (WSJ)
    • ‘Prepare for an epic finale’: Jeremy Grantham warns ‘tragedy’ looms as ‘superbubble’ may burst. (MarketWatch)
    • Boeing (BA) awarded $2.2 billion modification contract by U.S. Air Force.
    • Boeing (BA) awarded $927 million U.S. Air Force undefinitized contract action for four KC-46A aircraft for Israel.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Deere (DE): Joshua A. Jepsen, will be Chief Financial Officer (CFO).
    • Dexcom (DXCM) promotes former CTO Jake Leach to COO.
    • MorphoSys (MOR) Appoints Tim Demuth as New Chief Research and Development Officer, Following the Retirement of Malte Peters.
    • MarketWise (MKTW) CFO Dale Lynch to resign to pursue another professional opportunity.
    • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) announces that CFO is departing.
    • Wash. Federal (WAFD) appoints Kelli Holz as CFO, effective January 1, 2023.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • TECH to seek approval to implement 4:1 split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Brady (BRC) raises annual dividend to $0.92 per share, a $0.02 increase.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -13, Dow Jones -91 , NASDAQ -66, and Russell 2000 -10 (as of 8:11 a.m. EDT). Europe lower and Asia lower.  VIX Futures are at 26.17 from 25.49 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 25.87 from 26.21 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower with Natural Gas lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.20% from 3.142% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $20,002 from $20,305.17  yesterday morning and is lower by -1.03% this morning.

Sector Action – 08/31/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  Basic Materials, Energy, Financial, Technology, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical note.
  • One Month Winners:  Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Energy, Basic Materials, Financials, and Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, and Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Fourth day of losses as the indexes pullback.  USO down 3.13% to 73.11.  SLV down 2.24%.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: AVGO, LULU, SMAR, OXM, CVGW, SPWH, JOAN, NCNO of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: DOOO of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: MOMO +0.47, GCO +0.33, GMS +0.18, SIG +0.09, SAIC +0.07, SCWX +0.04, BRC +0.02, WB +0.01.
  • Flat: CPB +0.00.
  • Misses: OLLI (0.11), FLWS (0.09), PDCO (0.06), CIEN (0.01), HRL (0.01).
  • Still to Report: TTC.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: PSTG, OKTA, NTNX, S, GEF, IOT, MOMO, CPB of note.
  • Negative Guidance: STX, FIVE, COO, AI, HRL, FLWS, GCO, SCWX of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 08/31/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: NTNX +15%, TRQ +13%, LQDA +6%, CRDO +6%, PSTG +5%, ARCT +5%, STRY +5%.
  • Gap Down: ZFOX -21%, MDB -17%, ANAB -15%, AI -14%, OKTA -14%, VEEV -11%, SMTC -10%, AVDL -5%, NVDA -5%.

Insider Action: GNTY, AAT sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 08/31/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: HRL CPB CIEN OKTA SIG LE (CNBC)
  • Five Things To Know Before Market Opens Thursday. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: U.S. Jobs Data to push Fed towards third jumbo hike. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Trump Documents bear hallmarks of closest held secrets. (Bloomberg)
  • China locks down Chengdu over Covid-19 cases on the rise. (Bloomberg)
  • Finland gives $800 million to consumers over power bills. (Bloomberg)
  • Fourth graders had the worst drop in math and reading scores in decades. Blamed on remote learning and pandemic. (WSJ)
  • G-7 will discuss a cap on Russian oil. (Bloomberg)
  • Meta (META) to introduce more paid features. (Verge)
  • AMD (AMD) told by U.S. to stop selling AI chips in China. (Reuters)
  • T-Mobile (TMUS) to cut jobs in engineering and networking. (WSJ)
  • Hong Kong looking to end hotel quarantine by November on Covid-19 which remains a negative for casinos. (Bloomberg)
  • Indian regulators see a merger between Sony (SONY) and Zee would be a negative. (Reuters)
  • Robinhood Snacks: Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) goes through a cash crunch as raises money, closes stores and lays off workers. Snap (SNAP) slashes workforce.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes to 2% with the $MID being the last hold out with the 50 day moving average.  Updated 08/31/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart the White House en route Joint Base Andrews and Philidelphia, 5:50 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers a primetime speech on the continued battle for the Soul of the Nation, 8:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart Philadelphia, Pennsylvania en route Joint Base Andrews and Whitehouse, 9:25 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • Challenger Job Cuts August Job Cuts Announced by U.S. Employers 20,485, Up 30% Vs Year-Ago — Challenger Gray *August Job Cuts Announced by U.S. Employers Down 21% Vs July.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Productivity and Costs 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • PMI Mfg Index 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • August ISM Manufacturing Indexis due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 52% from 52.80%.
  • July Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to -0.1% from -1.1%.              
  • EIA natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Research Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 3:30 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • Avient (AVNT) Completes Acquisition of DSM Protective Materials (Dyneema).
  • Equifax (EFX) Completes Acquisition of Lawlogix.
  • 3M (MMM) Announces Preliminary Results of Split-Off Exchange Offer; Intends to Accept Tendered Shares and Expects Closing of the Neogen Transaction Today.
  • Turquoise Hill (TRQ) Announces Agreement in Principle with Rio Tinto for Transaction at C$43 per share in Cash.
  • WPP plc (WPP) announces that it is acquiring Newcraft.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Sustainability and Circular Materials Day 2022
    • Barclays Technology Media and Communications Conference 2022
    • Deutsche Bank dbAccess European Technology, Media and Telecommunication Conference 2022 (09/01/22-09/02/22)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Mizuho 4th Annual Storage and AI Virtual Series
        • Deutsche Bank Technology Conference 2022 (08/31/22-09/01/22)
        • Morgan Stanley Virtual Asia TMT Conference 2022 (08/31/22-09/02/22)
        • UBS Japan in Focus 2022 (08/30/22-09/01/22)
  • Company Meetings: CTEK, XFOR
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALL, CMBM, HON, VXRT
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • HP Global (HPQ) Partner Roadshow in Amsterdam.
    • VMware (VMW) Explore US 2022. (08/29/22-09/01/22)
    • Cenntro Electric Group (CENN) at Annual Sustainable Fleet Show (08/30/22-09/01/22)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Skilled Nursing News RETHINK Conference 2022
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • 14th International Conference on Osteogenesis Imperfecta 2022 (08/30/22-09/02/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: