CAPIS Morning Note – 08/25/26: Stocks Rebound As Yields Drop.

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.29% at 7652.86 from Friday higher by 0.43% at 7674.47. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7600 from 7700. Resistance is now at 7700 from 7600. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7600. The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.29% at 7652.86 from Friday higher by 0.43% at 7674.47.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7600 from 7700. Resistance is now at 7700 from 7600. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7600.
  • The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index ETF) sees support now at 700 from 710. Resistance is now at 710 from 720 as the QQQ closed lower by -1.00% at 706.32.
  • Bond Market is flat today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.71% from 4.71%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks move into a one-week losing streak from a three-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 falling -1.43% in the last week, ended 8/21.
  • U.S. moves into Week 27 of its attack on Iran, six months. Now we will try economic sanctions this week.
  • The S&P 500 is now on a 1-day losing streak. 
  • Bitcoin was on fire last week and continues higher this morning.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly – API Petroleum Institute Data of note.
    • Monthly – Consumer  Confidence and New Home Sales of note.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Pre-Tape Interview at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Signing Time at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Fed and Other Speakers of Note:  None of note.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News: due out this week:
    • Aggreko, Inc. files prospectus with SEC for an IPO; Number of shares offered and expected price range not yet determined.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • ELPW: Form F-1.. Up to 2,583,496 Class A Ordinary Shares Issuable Upon Exercise of the Warrants.
    • GRCE: Form S-3.. Up to 4,761,904 Shares of Common Stock.
    • NXXT: Form S-1.. 112,946,708 Shares of Common Stock.
    • POLA: Form S-1.. Up to 8,488,774 Shares of Common Stock.
    • SER: Form S-1.. 12,500,000 Shares of Common Stock.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement:
    • Nebius (NBIS) closes $5.75 billion private convertible notes offering. 
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • SNDA files prospectus supplement; relates to the offer and resale of up to 18,710,689 shares of common stock by selling securityholders.
    • CODX: Form S-3.. 3,404,724 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • TTD files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • OSS: Form S-3.. $100 million Mixed Shelf.
    • PH files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • WSFS files mixed securities shelf offering.

AFTER THE CLOSE:

Earnings After The Close:
    • Beats: None of note.
    • Misses: None of note.
    • Flat: None of note.
Movers From Last Week:
    • Winners: REAX +10%, KURA +4.6%, SVRA +3.4%, PH +2.9% of note.
    • Losers: GRRR -9.2%, LOPE -4.1%, AMRZ -2.1% of note.
News after the close:
    • The previously announced business combination between The Real Brokerage and RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX) has closed, creating Real REMAX Group Inc (REAX).
    • BA awarded a $131.2 bln ceiling IDIQ Air Force contract for the F-15 Eagle Crest in support of the F-15 Program Office.
    • HUBG Delays 10-Q.
Executive, Corporate Changes:
  • ORKA names former Arcutis CCO Todd Edwards as chief commercial officer.
  • LOPE places CFO Daniel Bachus on administrative leave; Lori Browning named interim CFO.
  • LPLA names Jonathan Lewis chief technology and information officer.
  • AMRZ names Sam Poletti CFO, succeeding Baris Oran.
  • HRL names Tyson Foods’ Ash Bhumbla CFO, effective Sept. 8.
Buybacks of Note:
  • PLXS authorizes new $100 mln share repurchase program.
  • REAX authorizes up to $450 mln share repurchase.
Dividend Changes & Ex-Dividend Stocks:
  • Stocks Going Ex-Dividend Tuesday: JNJ: $1.34 | PBR.A: $0.53 | PBR: $0.53 | PRU: $1.40 | CRS: $0.20 | MKSI: $0.25 | CDW: $0.63 | RBA: $0.33 | WLK: $0.53 | RHI: $0.59 | PLUS: $0.27 | SPB: $0.47 | CRAI: $0.57
  • Stocks Going Ex-Dividend Wednesday: SPGI: $0.96 | VOYA: $0.47 | CCS: $0.32 | DHS: $0.22 | USFR: $0.18 | PHYIX: $0.03 | BAGIX: $0.03 | HL: $0.0038

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +33.25, NASDAQ 100 +261.50, Dow Jones +233. Europe is higher while Asia is higher ex Hang Sang Index. Bond yield is at 4.672% from 4.71% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $79,362 from $77,588.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Consumer Staples, Financials, Utilities and Real Estate led the way higher.
  • Daily: Technology, Communicaton Services, Energy, Industrials were lower.
  • One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, B, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close

  • Wednesday Before The Open

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beat: BMO +0.19, BNS +0.18 of note.
  • Missed: DKS -0.23 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note
  • Mixed –None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: DKS of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market::

  • Gap Up: SGML +4.8%, NVT +4.5%, ACAD +2.3% of note
  • Gap Down: AAOI -12.4%, CTKB -2.5%, BABA -2.3%, REAX -1.9% of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e., “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • Oura and Dunkin Get Ready to Join IPO Bonaza. (WSJ)
  • Study Finds 1 in 4 NFL Players Get Brain Disease. (NYT)
  • OpenAI annualized revenues top $40 billion ahead of the IPO. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks churn as US threats against Iran lift the price of crude. (Bloomberg)
  • UAL CEO interviewed on CNBC has added 10 new European destinations.

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: None of note.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Pre-Tape Interview at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Signing Time at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Monthly
      • August Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 90.6 from 90.80.
      • July New Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 620,000 from 628,000..
    • Weekly
      • API Petroleum Institute Data out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 40% from 53% of Equities are Positive, and 47% from 20% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Communications Technology Conference
    • Stifel Tech Executive Summit
  • Top Analyst, Investor: SPAI of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: APPS ASNS HELE LZB of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.  None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: AMD  of note.

Downgrades: DQ RLI of note.

Initiations:  Buys: AWI FBIN KNF OC QXO SHW VMC WMS CURB of note.  Sells: POOL of note.