CAPIS Morning Note – 08/21/26: To The Moon Alice, Goes Bitcoin!

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.87% at 7641.16 from Wednesday higher by 0.21% at 7707.98. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7600 from 7700. Resistance is now at 7700 from 7600. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7600. The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.87% at 7641.16 from Wednesday higher by 0.21% at 7707.98.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7600 from 7700. Resistance is now at 7700 from 7600. In the last five months, support has moved from 6300 to 7600.
  • The QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index ETF) sees support now at 710 from 720. Resistance is now at 720 from 730 as the QQQ closed at 710.93.
  • Bond Market is flat today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.70% from 4.674%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks are now in a three-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 rising 0.36% in the last week, ended 8/14.
  • U.S. moves into Week 26 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Now we are back to negotiating a deal with Iran.
  • The S&P 500 is now on a 1-day losing streak. 
  • Bitcoin is on fire this week!!!

Key Geopolitical Events of Note

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly – Baker Hughes Rig Count of note.
    • Monthly – Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI of note.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Photo Opportunities at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 11:45 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Heads out of town on travel to South Carolina.
    • Delivers Remarks from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Fed Speakers of Note:  
    • None of note.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News: due out this week: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • ODYS – Pricing of $11 million Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • EDSA – Pricing of $25.0 Million Public Offering.
    • AVAH – Pricing of Secondary Offering of Common Stock.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • RCL – completion of offering of $1.25 billion senior unsecured notes due 2034.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • BKV: FORM S-3ASR – Up to 5,315,390 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholder.
    • PYXS: Form S-3.. Up to 39,200,306 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • EHC files mixed securities shelf offering.

AFTER THE CLOSE:

Earnings After The Close:
    • Beats: ROST +0.71 of note.
    • Misses: OSIS -0.53, FLO -0.01 of note.
    • Flat: None of note.
Movers after the close on Wednesday:
    • Winners: ROST +7.6% , AVEX +3% of note.
    • Losers: OSIS -13.8%, AVAH -9%, FLO -4.9% of note.
News after the close:
    • Ross Stores (ROST) prelim Q2 $2.66 vs $1.95 FactSet Consensus; revs $6.26 bln vs $6.16 bln FactSet Consensus.
    • Abbott (ABT) to pay about $670 mln to settle Gill NEC formula case and claims tied to ~2,000 other individuals.
    • James Hardie (JHX) agreed to divest its European walling and flooring business Fermacell, including the fermacell and Aestuver brands, to Holcim (HOLN) for €840M in cash.
    • Boeing (BA) awarded a $156.2 million Navy contract.
    • Everforth (EFOR) awarded a $147.8 million Army contract.
    • No stocks delay 10-Q.
Executive, Corporate Changes:
  • Boston Beer (SAM) Chief Financial Officer Diego Reynoso will be leaving the company on September 14 to accept a new opportunity. (see below)
  • Ingredion (INGR) appointed Diego Reynoso as chief financial officer effective October 1, 2026.
  • Globant (GLOB) discloses that it has appointed Fernando Matzkin as its Chief Operating Officer.
Buybacks of Note:
  • OSIS expands stock buyback authorization by 1 million shares.
  • SPOT  boosts share repurchase authorization by $1.5 billion.
  • HNI increases its share repurchase program by $200 million.
Dividend Changes & Ex-Dividend Stocks:
    • Stocks Going Ex-Dividend Friday: MSFT: $0.91 | AMAT: $0.53 | MAR: $0.73 | WPM: $0.20 | RMD: $0.66 | CNP: $0.24 | KGC: $0.04 | WWD: $0.32 | SBAC: $1.25 | TRU: $0.13 | SGI: $0.17 | WMG: $0.20 | LFUS: $0.80 | CGNX: $0.09 | GIL: $0.25 | ZWS: $0.11 | CHRD: $1.30 | ACT: $0.24 | LKQ: $0.30 | BC: $0.44 | MTRN: $0.14 | CON: $0.06 | AGO: $0.38 | COLM: $0.30 | LMAT: $0.25 | WD: $0.68
    • Stocks Going Ex-Dividend Monday: ATO: $1.00 | LYB: $0.69 | XYLD: $0.32 | GIC: $0.28 | GLNG: $0.25 | PRMB: $0.12 | XYLG: $0.11 | FSCO: $0.09 | HGLB: $0.09
    • ETD declares special cash dividend of $3 per share; reaffirms strong financial position and commitment to sustainable shareholder value.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +25.25, NASDAQ 100 +181, Dow Jones +179. Europe is higher while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.70% from 4.674% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $77,684 from $72,087.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Energy led the way higher.
  • Daily: Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Industrials were lower.
  • One-Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year-to-Date Winners: Energy, B, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close – None of note
  • Monday Before The Open – NSSC PDD of note

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beat: BJ +0.19, BKE +0.06 of note.
  • Missed: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note
  • Mixed –None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market::

  • Gap Up: ZKH +19%, ROST +8.7%, BEKE +3.6%, AERO +3.2%, CORZ +2.7%, EFOR +2.6%, AVAV +2.6%, AVEX +2.3%, JHX +2.1% of note
  • Gap Down: OSIS -14.3%, AVAH -8.6%, FLO -3.2%, SAM -2.8% of note.

Insider Action: RSG sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: WW BAER of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e., “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • Politicians Who Once Championed Data Centers Are Now Bashing Them. (WSJ)
  • Investing in Bonds? Be Careful. (NYT)
  • Trump to Allow Tariff Relief on Ground Beef. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks Rise as Bitcoin Rally Lifts Crypto Shares. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • None of note.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Photo Opportunities at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 11:45 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Heads out of town on travel to South Carolina.
    • Delivers Remarks from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Monthly
      • July Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 53.90.
      • July Global U.S. Services PMI  is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 54.60.
    • Weekly
      • Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 48% from 60% of Equities are Positive, and 28% from 68% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
  • Top Analyst, Investor: None of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: BOC of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.  None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades:  APA ETSY TH of note.

Downgrades: ALL of note.

Initiations:  Buys: ACOG CALC LWAY PRQR QNCX SITM TGB VVVV DRIO ZM of note.  Sells: AFL CRCT CRSR of note.