CAPIS Morning Note – 08/21/23: Stocks Rebound After S&P 500 Drops Last Three Weeks.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.01% at 4369.71 from Thursday lower by -0.77% at 4370.36. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4406.50 at 6:10 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4375.75 at 2:15 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 31 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.01% at 4369.71 from Thursday lower by -0.77% at 4370.36. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4406.50 at 6:10 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4375.75 at 2:15 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 31 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 27.70 from 26.80 Friday.  The average for May/June/July average was 18.81 from 19.94 in May/June. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +17.50 points and by +0.40% at 7:20 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: PANW +0.15 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

    

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Atlantic Coastal Acquisition Corp. (ACAH) Will Redeem Its Public Shares and Will Not Consummate an Initial Business Combination.
    • SDCL EDGE Acquisition Corporation (SEDA) announces Letter of Intent for a business combination with Magnet Joint Venture GmbH and certain assets of KME SE Comprising the KME Specialty Aerospace Business.
    • TradeUP Acquisition Corp. (UPTD) Announces Extension of the Deadline for an Initial Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ASST: Filed Form S-1.. 999,450 Shares of Class B Common Stock.
    • COSM: Filed Form S-3.. 1,935,485 Shares of Common Stock.
    • EDBL: Filed Form S-1.. Common Stock Offering.
    • FOA: Filed Form S-3.. 33,893,666 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • LICY: Filed Form F-3.. $200,000,000 Common Shares.
    • SLGG: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering. (Aegis bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering:
    • JAN: Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BIVI: Filed Form S-3.. Primary Offering of $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf Up to 311,002 Shares of Class A Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
    • EXR: Files for 1,674,748 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • IKNA: Filed Form S-3..5,954,091 Shares Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • AEON: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 46,921,469 Shares of Common Stock Up to 5,280,000 Private Placement Warrants.
    • APP: Entered into an agreement to repurchase 15 mln shares of its Class A common stock beneficially owned by KKR Denali Holdings in a private transaction at a price per share of $36.85, for an aggregate purchase price of $552.75 million.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BVXV: Filed Form F-3..$150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • OSS: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • TKLF: Filed Form F-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • Johnson Controls (JCI) Announces Early Results of Its Cash Tender Offers for Its Senior Notes.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • NKLA: Entered into $325 million senior convertible notes Securities Purchase Agreement with investors.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: ABEO 27.1%, GRPN 18.6%, GLT 12.2%, HRB 11.6%, BOOM 11.0%, BLMN 10.7%, DLB 10.6%, MERC 9.8%, ANF 9.6%, IMGN 9.5%, PHG 9.4%, TGI 8.8%, SFL 8.8%, PFGC 8.7%, MRCY 8.5%, BLUE 8.1%, CRON 7.2%, PLCE 7.2%.
    • Trading Down: HE -57.2%, FTCH -49.7%, MNK -34.2%, EVLO -29.8%, TUP -29.5%, ALLK -28.1%, ATRA -27.8%, RAD -27.5%, TWOU -26.4%, TPIC -25.3%, COHR -23.2%, NKTR -21.6%, CREE -21.2%, CDXS -21.1%, OMER -19.1%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • China consumes about 60% of the world’s copper, nickel and aluminum, and half of the world’s zinc. (Nikkei)
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) shares rise on earnings beat, surprising investors who worried about a Friday report. (MarketWatch)
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) +8.6% after hours Friday following earnings.
    • Napco Security Systems (NSSC) plummeting by over -25% in after hours following bearish Q4 revenue guide.
    • Nikola’s Carey Mendes, president of energy, resigns. (MarketWatch)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • The Score: HE, X, TGT, DHI, CVS (WSJ)
    • Bond Investors Brace for Supply Freight Train Before Fed Confab. (Bloomberg)
    • Rising yields put S&P 500 on pace for biggest monthly loss of 2023 as investors brace for Fed Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. (MarketWatch)
    • Japan To Increase Minimum Pay By Record As Inflation Takes Hold.(Bloomberg)
    • China Urges Brics To Become Geopolitical Rival To G7. (FinancialTimes)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: MSFT, NVDA, ADBE, MRVL, MRNA, BNTX of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Agrify (AGFY) Receives Nasdaq Notification of Non-Compliance with Listing Rule 5250(c)(1).
    • Axonics (AXNX) Announces CFO Retirement and Appoints Successor.
    • Arcutis (ARQT) Appoints Interim Chief Financial Officer (CFO).
    • Aurinia (AUPH) Appoints Two New Board Directors with Deep Experience in BioPharma Leadership, Commercial Strategy, Mergers and Acquisitions and Advancing Therapeutic Pipelines.
    • Capstone Green Energy (CGRN) Receives Notification of Deficiency from Nasdaq Related to Delayed Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
    • DZS Inc. (DZSI) Receives Nasdaq Notice Regarding Late Form 10-Q Filing.
    • Edgio, Inc. (EGIO) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Late Filing of Form 10-Q.
    • FOXO Technologies Inc. (FOXO) Announces Receipt of Second Notice of Non-Compliance from NYSE American.
    • Kontoor Brands’ (KTB) CFO to retire.
    • Metalpha (MATH) Receives Notification of Deficiency from Nasdaq, Relating to Delayed Filing of Annual Report on Form 20-F.
    • Pinterest (PINS) approves transition of Benjamin Silbermann from Executive Chair to non-executive Chair.
    • TuSimple (TSP) Receives Expected Notice from Nasdaq Related to Delayed Filing of Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • BayCom Corp (BCML) Adoption of Stock Repurchase Program. (see Dividend)
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • BQ trading r/s price.
    • SMX trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • BayCom Corp (BCML) Announces Cash Dividend.
    • Cable ONE (CABO) increase its quarterly dividend 3.5% to $2.95 per share.
    • Digital Media Solutions (DMS) Announces 1-for-15 Reverse Stock Split and Favorable Amendment of Credit Agreement.
    • Equinor (EQNR) announced an ordinary dividend of $0.30 per share (unchanged) and an extraordinary dividend of $0.60 per share for Q1.
    • NAPCO (NSSC) Declaration of Increased Dividend.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:
    • Aflac (AFL): SVP, Global CRO sold 7649 shares at $76.10 worth ~$582K.
    • Global Payments (GPN): Senior Vice President and CIO sold 14502 shares at $124.47 worth ~$1.805 million.
    • Teradata (TDC): Chief Product Officer sold 26049 shares at $44.53 worth ~$1.16 million.
    • Timken (TKR ) CEO sold 24000 shares at $76.52-77.21 worth ~$1.84 million.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +21, Dow Jones +122,  NASDAQ +97, and Russell 2000 +6.  (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex Australia and Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 17.99 from 19.10 Friday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.298% from 4.223% Friday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $25,940 from $26,394 Friday, lower by -5.40%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Defensive, Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, Healthcare Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Industrials, Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Major U.S. stock indexes shed more than 2% this week, deepening their August slump, while Treasury yields touched their highest levels in years.   U.S. government bond yields on Friday fell back from Thursday’s multiyear highs, but remained lofty enough to make investors think twice about betting on stocks to maintain this year’s surprising rally.  The Nasdaq, packed with rate-sensitive technology stocks, fell 0.2% on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 26 points, less than 0.1%, while the S&P 500 declined less than 0.1%. Every segment of the S&P 500 ended the week lower.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: 

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: NSSC of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: BIVI +35%, PANW +12%, CALT +6%, CABO +5%, ZS +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: NSSC -33%, FOA -4%, NKLA -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  WSC, SEAC sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest premarket moves: PANW, ESTE, PR, NVDA, TSLA, NSSC, VMW, XPEV, FTCH (CNBC)
  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Why Xi Jinping is Letting China’s Economy Fail. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Borrowers With $39 Billion in Student Loans Finally See Relief. (Bloomberg) 
  • US Futures signal bounce after three-week slump: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S., Japan and South Korea expand mutual security agreements. (NY Times)
  • China Central Bank trims 1-year rate but leaves 5-year unchanged unexpectedly. (CNBC)
  • China is on edge as fallout from its real estate crisis spreads. (NYT)
  • China encouraging banks to increase lending to boost recovery. (Bloomberg)
  • Airline close calls happen far more often than previously known. (NYT)
  • Hawaii Electric (HE) was warned of system issues prior to wildfires. (NYT)
  • NPR Marketplace: It’s been a summer of record-breaking heat. Today, we’ll head to Houston to hear how a sizzling heat wave is impacting the health of its most vulnerable workers. Also on the show: The 10-year Treasury yield is climbing, as are 401(k) balances. Plus, are American tourists ready for a museum about the economy? (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News: California prepares for Hilary’s arrival. (Podcast) 
  • NY Times The Daily: Inside the sputtering campaign of Ron DeSantis. (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg: Methane leaks are the low-hanging fruit of Climate Change. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Bonds look extremely undervalued. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 20%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The First Lady arrive in Reno, Nevada, 4:15 a.m. EDT
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart Reno, Nevada en route to Maui, Hawaii, 11:40 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady arrive in Maui, Hawaii, 5:10 P.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady depart Maui, Hawaii en route to Reno, Nevada, 11:25 P.m. EDT

Economic:  None of note.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell To Speak At Jackson Hole Economic Symposium On August 25 At 10:05 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News:

  • Marsh (MMC) to acquire Honan Insurance Group.
  • Permian Resources (PR) to Acquire Earthstone Energy (ESTE) in All-Stock Transaction, Creating a $14 Billion Premier Delaware Basin Independent E&P.
  • VMware (VMW): UK CMA clears Broadcom’s (AVGO) deal to buy VMware.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • Santander 23rd Annual Brazil Conference 2023 (08/17/23-08/23/23)
      • Truist Atlanta Bank Summit
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: DBGI
  • Fireside Chat: IPW
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: KTRA.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: