CAPIS Morning Note – 07/24/23: Big Week Ahead With Central Bank Action, Economic Data and More Earnings.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.03% at 4536.34 from Thursday lower by -0.68% at 4534.87. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4577 at 5:20 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4560 at 2:10 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 17 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.03% at 4536.34 from Thursday lower by -0.68% at 4534.87. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4577 at 5:20 a.m. EDT while the low was hit at 4560 at 2:10 a.m. EDT. The range overnight was 17 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 13.70 from 14.90 yesterday.  The average for May/June average was 19.94 from 21.63 in May. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by  +6.25 points and by 0.14% at 7:10 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Cannabis pharma Mira Pharmaceuticals (MIRA) ups IPO size. (MarketWatch)
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Allurion Technologies, Inc. and Compute Health Acquisition Corp. (CPUH) Announce Updated Terms to Warrant Agreement Amendment.
    • Priveterra Acquisition Corp. (PMGM) Announces Completion of Business Combination with AEON Biopharma, Inc.
    • Vahanna Tech Edge Acquisition I Corp. (VHNA) Announces Extension of Deadline to Complete Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AREB: Filed Form S-1.. 1,372,998 Shares of Common Stock.
    • AQMS: Closing of $20 Million Public Offering of Common Stock, Including Full Exercise of Over-Allotment Option.
    • BIOL: Filed Form S-1.. Common stock and warrant offering.
    • CTGO: Announces Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • JNJ: Announces its intention to split-off at least 80.1% of the shares of Kenvue (KVUE) through an exchange offer.
    • IMTX: Announces $35M Equity Investment from Bristol (BMY) purchased 2.42M shares at $14.46 per share. Additionally, Bristol has the right to appoint a member to the Immatics Scientific Advisory Board.
    • NRSN: Filed Form F-1.. 3,000,000 Ordinary SharesOrdinary Warrants to purchase up to 3,000,000 Ordinary Shares.
    • SLNO: Filed Form S-1.. 22,598,870 Shares of Common Stock Underlying Warrants.
    • SNES: Filed Form S-1.. $7,500,000 Up to Shares of Common Stock and Accompanying Series D Warrants to Purchase up to Shares of Common Stock and Series E Warrants to Purchase up to Shares of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • AUR: Files for 222,222,216 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • CASA: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 11,907,973 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: EVLO 220.2%, SFBS 34.3%, BLUE 33.4%, SNBR 25.7%, PKX 22.2%, AKBA 20.8%, CVNA 20.2%, CDXS 19.7%, PACW 19.7%, CERS 19.6%, OFG 19.4%, HMST 18.6%, ATRO 18.3%, RBBN 18.2%, CPS 17.3%, RGEN 16.9%, PNFP 16.7%, MPAA 16.4%.
    • Trading Down: APLS -59.2%, MASI -23.3%, FGEN -17.8%, SIMO -14.8%, AAOI -13.5%, OMCL -12.6%, MRTX -12.2%, COMM -12.2%, FTCH -11.9%, DFS -11.4%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • DJIA sports a 10 day winning streak.
    • AMC Entertainment (AMC) exploding, up over +80%, while AMC Preferred Equity units (APE) sinks, down over -30%, after AMC was blocked by a Delaware judge from converting its APE units into common stock. (CourtOpinion) (MarketWatch)
    • Spotify (SPOT) to raise prices for premium service. (WSJ)
    • US Bank Deposits Fell To $17.289 Trillion From $17.368 Trillion In Prior Week.
    • Pfizer (PFE): Syros Pharma says it received notice from Pfizer that it will terminate license and collaboration agreement.
    • Boeing (BA) awarded a $393 million US Army contract modification.
    • Cummins (CMI) awarded a $347 million US Army contract for V903 Cummins series 600 and 675 horsepower diesel engines.
    • Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) settles with DOJ for $377.5 million to resolve previously disclosed civil investigation. (MarketWatch)
    • KBR Awarded $1.9B Contract to Plan, Train, Fly NASA Human Spaceflight Programs.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • ‘Barbie’ wins box office crown and ‘Oppenheimer’ soars in historic blockbuster weekend as both brought in $235 million. (MarketWatch)
    • Russia Defies Sanctions by Selling Oil Above Price Cap. (WSJ)
    • Retail bets on zero day options are growing, but they may come at a price. (CNBC)
    • Musk Says Twitter Will Change Logo to X, ‘Bid Adieu’ to the Blue Bird. (Bloomberg)
    • Hedge Funds Brawl Over Battered Commercial Real Estate. (WSJ)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: STZ, GS, MSFT, ROK, EMR, ETN, TT, APH, KEYS, GWW of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • The Alkaline Water Company (WTER) Receives Nasdaq Notice on Late Filing of Its Form 10-K.
    • Atento (ATTO) Announces Delisting from NYSE; Delisting expected in Restructuring Plan.
    • Arch Capital (ACGL): Arch Reinsurance announces Jonathan Schriber will join the company as President.
    • Biodexa (BDRX) Regain Compliance with NASDAQ Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Cian (CIAN) Announces Final Decision of NYSE Committee Following Appeal of NYSE Delisting Determination.
    • CVX: Announced its CFO Pierre Breber will retire in 2024 after 35 years Eimear Bonner currently CTO will succeed Breber as CFO effective March 1st 2024 Chevron also waived its mandatory retirement age of 65 for its CEO Mike Wirth who turns 63 this year.
    • INNOVATE Corp (VATE) announces the untimely passing of CEO Wayne Barr.
    • Knightscope (KSCP) Receives Letter of Compliance from NASDAQ.
    • MEI Pharma (MEIP )Announces Results of Special Meeting of Stockholders. (Release)
    • Neptune (NEPT) Announces Receipt of NASDAQ Notification.
    • NextPlay Technologies (NXTP) Receives Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Quarterly Report.
    • Tiziana Life Sciences Ltd. (TLSA) Receives Nasdaq Deficiency Notice.
    • ViewRay (VRAY) Announces Commencement of Nasdaq Delisting Proceedings: Common Stock Expected to Begin Trading on the OTC Markets.
    • VOD appoints former SAP exec as CFO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News: 
    • BJDX trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:
    • Bank of America (BAC): President, Regional Banking sold 77806 shares at $31.485 worth ~$2.45 million.
    • Morgan Stanley (MS): Deputy CFO sold 13500 shares at $92 worth ~$1.24 million.
    • Morgan Stanley (MS): CEO sold 125000 shares at $92.00-93.58 worth ~$11.5 million.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +8, Dow Jones +29,  NASDAQ +39, and Russell 2000 +1. (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia higher ex the ASX 200 (Australia) while Europe lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.70 unchanged from Friday.  Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher as well as Natural Gas. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.804% from 3.839% Friday. The U.. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $29,306 from $29,754 yesterday, lower by -2.74%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Healthcare, Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Financials, Real Estate, Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out its tenth-straight daily gain Friday, overcoming an earnings-day selloff in American Express (AXP) shares with gains from a range of blue-chips, including Intel (INTC), Procter & Gamble (PG), Nike (NKE) and Chevron (CVX).  It is the Dow’s longest winning streak in nearly six years and shows how the rally in stocks is spreading from a few chip makers and highflying tech firms into other corners of the economy, such as healthcare, airlines, energy and banking.  Utility, Healthcare, Finance and Energy stocks have been the worst-performing sectors in the S&P 500 in 2023, but so far this month they have led the rally. Healthcare and Financial stocks this week pushed into positive territory for the year. Energy and Utility shares inched closer to break-even performance. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DPZ +0.02, PHG +€0.02, HOPE +0.02, BOH +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: CVX of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: AMC +47%, BDX +7%, ALNY +5%, EXEL +4%, VOD +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: KOD -48%, VRCA -11%, PHG -5%, DPZ -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: AMC, DPZ, TSLA, MAT, AXP, UPS, SHOP, CVX (CNBC)
  • Five Things to Know Before The Stock Market Opens This Morning (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Housing Market Rebound Poses Challenges For Fed’s Inflation Fight. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: The Bear Market Has Nearly Been Erased, Fewer Than 20 Months After it Began. (Bloomberg)
  • Bonds Gain, Stocks Muted After Weak European Data: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • China holds off on major stimulus as it signals property easing, (Bloomberg)
  • Big week ahead for Fed, ECB and BOJ as all make their latest rate announcements. (CNBC)
  • 10 year U.S. home rally could be coming to an end. (CNBC)
  • Goldman Sachs expects record high oil demand to spur large deficits, boosting prices. (CNBC)
  • Apple (AAPL) aims to keep iPhone shipments steady despite 2023 turmoil. (Bloomberg)
  • Kodiak Sciences (KOD) shares drop 56% as discontinues wet AMD treatment. (MarketWatch)
  • NPR Most Recent Business Podcast: We got retail sales and housing data this past week, and there’s some optimistic news. Are these signs of a “soft landing”? The Federal Reserve hasn’t said — nobody wants to jinx it. We’ll examine the data and what it means for a potential Fed rate hike next week.  (Listen)
  • New York Times The Daily Show: One man blockade against the U.S. military, U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). (Listen)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes to 77% from 88%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 3:30 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Chicago Fed Activity Index 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • July S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 46.30.
  • July S&P Global US Services is also due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 54.40.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • The Fed Blackout Period has begun. No Fed speakers between now and the FOMC Wed. 07/26/23.
  • The Fed Announces A July 27 Meeting To Discuss The Proposed Bank Rules.

M&A Activity:

  • Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) enters into agreement to acquire New England Excess Exchange.
  • Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) to Acquire Sculptor Capital Management (SCU).

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: