CAPIS Morning Note – 07/21/26: Stocks Higher But Can It Hold?

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.19% at 7443.28 with Friday lower by -1.01% at 7457.69. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7500. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7600. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400. S&P 500 hit […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.19% at 7443.28 with Friday lower by -1.01% at 7457.69.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7500. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7600. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400.
  • S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.592% from 4.562%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks are now in a one-week losing streak, with the S&P 500 dropping -1.55% in the last week, ended 7/17.
  • U.S. moves into Week 22 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Fighting has broken out on both sides and there is no deal. It is FUBAR.
  • 3 Day Losing Streak on the S&P 500 started on Thursday.
  • The S&P 500 had its first loss of more than -1%. for July. One more loss of greater than -1% and we could be clustering with another loss of -1%.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly –
      • API Petroleum Institute Data at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Monthly-
      • None of note.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today:  The Federal Reserve (FOMC) blackout period runs through Thursday, July 30, 2026.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Greets Athletes from Denison University at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Greets the President of the Republic of Lebanon at 11:00 a.m. EDT and then holds a Bilateral Meeting at 11:15 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Greets House GOP Members at 5:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • ATER: Form S-3.. 6,737,500 Shares of Common Stock.
    • BGDE: Form S-3.. Up to 10,924,527 Shares of Common Stock.
    • BNRG: Form F-3.. Up to 7,201,960 Ordinary Shares.
    • MGY Proposed Public Offering of Class A Common Stock.
    • SBFM: Form 8K – entered into an At-The-Market Issuance Sales Agreement.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • FTV files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • MGY files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • IONR files for $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: ZION +1.48, CCK +0.33, WRB +0.19, WTFC +0.16, MCRI +0.11, CALX +0.07, STLD +0.06 of note.
  • Misses: BOKF -0.09 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Winners From Monday: PKE +8%, TPC +4.3%, NBIS +4.2%, CBRL +4.1%, VVX +3.9%, CCK +3%,

Losers From Monday: CALX -13.5%, MGY -4.8%, GTLB -4.5%.

After The Close:

  • Ross Stores (ROST) opens 47 new locations in June and July, keeps pace for about 110 openings this year.
  • Cracker Barrel (CBRL) completes 26-store sale-leaseback, exits Maple Street Biscuit; raises FY26 profitability outlook.
  • FedEx (FDX) expects its MD-11 fleet to be fully returned to service by the end of calendar year 2026.
  • Planet Fitness (PLNT) exits minority stake as Franchise Equity Partners buys Australian franchisee Bravo Fit.
  • President Trump to impose additional 50% tariffs on certain goods of Canada.
  • RTX awarded a $1.8 billion modification to previously awarded Navy contract.
  • Krystal Biotech (KRYS) to join S&P MidCap 400; Tutor Perini (TPC) and V2X (VVX) added to S&P SmallCap 600.
  • 10Q Delays – None of note.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • HNVR appointed Kevin O’Connor as president, effective July 27, 2026.
  • STIM  names Axogen’s Nir Naor CFO; legal chief to step down.
  • GTLB names former New Relic executive Thomas Lloyd chief business and legal officer.

Buybacks of Note:

  • VALU renews $2 million stock repurchase program.

Dividend Info:

  • ITUB FDX VST DTE FTV BRKR MAIN OTF DX LTC ARCO GIII UTZ goes Ex-Div Tuesday.
  • APH CNQ STM ESLT QSR CINF WRB SGHC HTLD goes Ex-Div Wednesday.
  • MCB raises quarterly dividend to $0.35 per share from $0.25 per share.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +20, NASDAQ 100 +320, Dow Jones +120. Europe is higher while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.595% from 4.565% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and stronger against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,157 from $64,527

Sector Action:

  • Daily Technology, Materials, Industrials, Real Estate and Communication Services were higher.
  • Daily Consumer Defensive and Healthcare were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: NOC +0.86, SYF +0.45, VICR +0.39, GM +0.38, VMI +0.34, DHI +0.23, AUB +0.19, MMM +0.15, HAS +0.12, DHR +0.10, GPC +0.07, MRSH +0.06, EFX +0.05, KEY +0.02, HAL +0.01, of note.
  • Missed: FOR -0.11, MSCI -0.05, NVS -0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report:  ALLY SCHW WFRD of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning –  None of note.
  • Mixed – None of none.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – CALX of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth has weakened.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: HUT +9.3%,  of note
  • Gap Down: AGCC -5.9%,  of note.

Insider Action: None sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. CBIO see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: ARTV of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • American AI Execs Sound Alarm on Chinese Models. (WSJ)
  • Trump to Impose 50% Tariffs on Many Canadian Goods. (NYT)
  • Tropical Storm Bertha Takes Aim at Gulf Coast. (USA Today)
  • US Iran Strikes Extend to 10 Days as Houthis Threaten Ships. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks Rise as Rebounds Chipmakers Gathers Pace. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:  The Federal Reserve (FOMC) blackout period runs through Thursday, July 30, 2026.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Greets Athletes from Denison University at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Greets the President of the Republic of Lebanon at 11:00 a.m. EDT and then holds a Bilateral Meeting at 11:15 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Greets House GOP Members at 5:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • API Petroleum Institute Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Monthly
      • None of note.

M&A Activity & Daily: AdaptHelath (AHCO) to sell Diabetes Health business to Cardinal Health (CAH) for $235 million cash. Cardinal Health (CAH) to buy AdaptHealth’s diabetes business, Strive Medical for about $360 million cash.

Moving Average Table: 30% from 27% of Equities are Positive, and 3% from 32% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
  • Top Analyst, Investor: OCUL of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: RNTX of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • ASRS
    • Farnborough International Airshow

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.  None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: UDR of note.

Downgrades: ADBE PD RPD SPSC WDAY ZION of note.

Initiations:   Buys: AHR APPS FAF RERE STC  of note.  Sells: None of note.