CAPIS Morning Note – 07/14/26: Stocks Mixed, Warsh Head to The Hill

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.79% at 7515.34 from Friday higher by 0.42% at 7575.39. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7500 from 7400. Resistance is now at 7600 from 7500. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7500. S&P 500 hit […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.79% at 7515.34 from Friday higher by 0.42% at 7575.39.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7500 from 7400. Resistance is now at 7600 from 7500. In the last four months, support has moved from 6300 to 7500.
  • S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2/26.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.618% from 4.573%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks are now in a three-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.23% in the last week, ended 7/10.
  • U.S. moves into Week 21 of its attack on Iran, almost six months. Fighting has broken out on both sides and there is no deal.
  • 2 Day Winning Streak on the S&P 500 ended Monday.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly –
      • API Petroleum Institute Data of note.
    • Monthly-
      • CPI and NFIB Small Business Optimism out today.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Multiple Speakers see below.  Main is Kevin Warsh 10:00 a.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Greets the Prime Minister of the Republic of Iraq at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a  Swearing-In Ceremony with Senator Tim Sheehy at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a  Pre-Tape Interview with Trey Yingst at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News:
    • YPF Energía Eléctrica files IPO prospects with the SEC.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • QTTB launches $200 million public offering of common stock, pre-funded warrants.
    • ERAS launches $500 million common stock offering.
    • CVKD: Form S-3..  2,942,400 Shares of Common Stock.
    • LYEL: Form S-3.. 1,100,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • NNBR: FORM S-3 – 24,509,804 Shares of Common Stock.
    • NXTS – Form S-1..2,572,874 Shares of Common Stock.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • Honeywell (HON) starts exchange offer for up to $16.0 billion of registered notes.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
    • PENG proposes $650 million convertible notes offering due 2031, plans note exchanges and debt paydown. 
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • NNBR files for 24,509,804 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • WHF also files for 3,976,258 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • LYEL files for 1.1 million share common stock offering by selling shareholder. 
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ERAS files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • WHF files for $240.9 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • HYFT: Form F-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • MVIS: FORM S-3 – $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • USEA: FORM F-3 – $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Winners From Monday: TREX +4.6%

Losers From Mpnday: MBX -11.7%, PENG -6.7%, RPT -6.9%, QTTB -4.8%, CSGP -3.5%,  SSTK -2.1%

After The Close:

  • TREX announces the realignment of its North American distribution network; Issues upside Q2 and FY26 revenue guidance.
  • Chipotle (CMG) opens first Mexico restaurant, plans more Nuevo León sites this year. Chipotle expects to open 350 to 370 restaurants globally in 2026 and now operates more than 4,100 locations worldwide.
  • D. E. Shaw increased passive stake in Cracker Barrel (CBRL) to 7.3% from 5.1%.
  • Biogen (BIIB) and Eisai win FDA approval for subcutaneous LEQEMBI initiation dosing in early Alzheimer’s disease. 

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • TARS says Chief Commercial Officer Aziz Mottiwala is departing; Neera Clase named interim CCO.
  • MBX names Steve Hoerter CEO, appoints John Smither CFO. 
  • BFB ticking lower as CEO Lawson Whiting, who has led the company since 2019, plans to step down once a successor has been appointed.
  • SSTK CEO Hennessy steps down; CFO Rik Powell named interim CEO.
  • CSGP names Robin Rossmann CFO, effective July 31, 2026.
  • CEVA and COO Michael Boukaya mutually agree that Mr. Boukaya would resign as COO, effective Aug 1.

Buybacks of Note: None of note.

Dividend Calendar:

  • CMI raises quarterly dividend to $2.20 per share from $2.00 per share.
  • AMX RPM VTMX UTF of note Ex-Div for Tuesday.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 -16.50, NASDAQ 100 +88.75, Dow Jones -467 Europe is lower while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.619% from 4.579% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $62,694 from $62,987.

Sector Action:

  • Daily  Energy, Materials, Technology, Real Estate and Industrials were higher.
  • Daily Communication Services,Financials, Healthcare and Consumer Cyclicals were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None of note.
  • Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: GS +6.47, JPM +2.11, WFC +0.28 and BAC +0.08 of note.
  • Missed: None of note.
  • Flat: FAST of note.
  • Still to Report: C of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning –  None of note.
  • Mixed – None of none.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth remains in good shape.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: DHT +2.5%, GROY +2.3%, CEVA +2.3%, QNT +2.1% of note
  • Gap Down: SPRO -6.9%, QTTB -6%, LYEL -3.8%, PENG -3.7%, CSGP -3.5%, MBX -3.4%, SSTK -2.7%, TARS -2.7%, NNBR -2.6%, ERAS -2.2%, RPT -2% of note.

Insider Action: None sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • Oil Reflects Bet That Strait Won’t Go Back to Normal. (WSJ)
  • Holden Caufield Turns 75. (NYT)
  • June Inflation Report as Fed Chair Speaks to Congress. (USA Today)
  • JP Morgan Bags Record Profit on $6 Billion Stock-Trading Haul. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: US Stocks Slip Ahead of CPI and Warsh as IBM Sinks. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:

  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 1:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Greets the Prime Minister of the Republic of Iraq at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a  Swearing-In Ceremony with Senator Tim Sheehy at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a  Pre-Tape Interview with Trey Yingst at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • API Petroleum Institute Data of note
    • Monthly
      • June NFIB Small Business Optimism is due out at 6:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 95.6 from 95.3 in May.
      • June CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to -01.% from 0.50%.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 53% from 87% of Equities are Positive, and 0% from 8% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Leerink Partners Therapeutics Forum
    • RJ Private Data Forum
  • Top Analyst, Investor: ADIG SNDX of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: DCOY GOSS RENT of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • AAIC
    • Citizens Tech Forum
    • ISTH

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.  None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: ATR ESS FCEL NEM TKO UDR ULS of note.

Downgrades: AAPL CRCL GEF OI of note.

Initiations:   Buys: CCJ CWEN ENLT EOSE LEU NXT AMBQ ARWR BELFA COLB of note.  Sells: None of note.