CAPIS Morning Note – 07/02/26: Happy 250th To the United States of America!! Jobs Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.22% at 7483.23 from Tuesday higher by 0.79% at 7499.36. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7300. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400 S&P 500 hit […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.22% at 7483.23 from Tuesday higher by 0.79% at 7499.36.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7300. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400
  • S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.495% from 4.463%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks were in a two-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.93% in the last week. That ended this past week.
  • U.S. moves into Week 19 of its attack on Iran. Is the deal really a deal and a conclusion to the war going to really happen this week or just another week of kicking the can down the road?
  • There were four down -1% days in June which is now over. Will this trend continue in July?
  • 2 Day Winning Streak on the S&P 500 ended yesterday.

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

  • Economic news of note.
  • Weekly –
    • Jobless Claims out at 8:30 a.m. EDT
    • Natural Gas Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • Monthly-
    • Jobs Data and Factory Orders of note this morning.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Federal Reserve SF President Daly at 7:45 a.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Receives his Intelligence Briefing at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Pre-Tape Interview at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 6:00 p.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • QXO files for 19,352 share common stock offering, relates to TopBuild acquisition
    • AVR files for 5,385,000 share common stock offering, relates to warrants.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note..
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • KODK files for 4,426,268 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CBIO: Files for $500 million mixed securities shelf offering.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: GBX +0.00 of note.

Winners From After The Close: FIZZ +7.5%, CEPT +3.1%, BTGO +2.3%, AVAV +2.1%

Losers From After The Close: FC -22.6%, CMCO -2%

After The Close:

  • Resideo (REZI) announces the Board of Directors has approved the planned spin-off of its ADI Global Distribution business.
  • Cantor Equity Partners II, Inc (CEPT): Securitize completes business combination.
  • Softbank (SFTBY) reopens talks on $10 billion OpenAI-backed loan.
  • Apple (AAPL) makes lobbying push to buy Chinese-made memory chips. (Bloomberg)
  • Apple (AAPL) gears up to launch re-imagined base-model MacBook Pro and next-gen iPad Pro for 2027. (Bloomberg)
  • Whirlpool (WHR) files for 19,352 share common stock offering, relates to TopBuild acquisition.
  • AeroVironment (AVAV) awarded a $500 million Army contract for the procurement of commercial counter-unmanned aerial systems and counter small-unmanned aerial systems capabilities.
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded a $347.5 million Army contract for development, fabrication and testing of improvements to prototype air and missile defense system.
  • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) awarded a $400 million Defense Logistics Agency contract for grain oriented electrical steel.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • INGN announces John R. Linker as Executive Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer, effective as of July 1, 2026.
  • CMCO announces the appointment of Andy Reding as Chief Operating Officer.
  • AEOS announces that CFO Mike Mathias will transition to serve as a strategic advisor to CEO Jay Schottenstein; names Ravi Thanawala as next CFO and reaffirms guidance.

Buybacks of Note: None of note.

Dividend Calendar:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Thursday: PWR CMCSA BMY GD ITUB RSG SYY RGLD BRX ESE SSD ESAB CPB HASI ABM ATHM TWO of note.
  • Bank of Ozark (OZK) ups dividend by 2.30%.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 -0.25, NASDAQ 100 -88, Dow Jones +90. Europe is higher and Asia is also mixed. Bond yield is at 4.495% from 4.469% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $61,264 from $58,627.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate and Healthcare were higher.
  • Daily Technology, Industrials, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Energy were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before The Open: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: LNN +0.39 of note.
  • Missed: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
  • Mixed – None of none.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth remains in good shape.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: FIZZ +7.6%, HCM +5.1%, ABVX +4.4%, AVAV +3.5%, TEN +3.2%, KODK +2.7%, NBIX +2.4%, AZN +2.1% of note
  • Gap Down: ELTX -22.4%, FC -21.2%, OUST -6.7%, CVEO -5.2%, CWT -4.1%, FPS -2.1%, GRDN -2%

Insider Action: RH see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • Jobs Data Looks to Extend Its Growth Streak. (WSJ)
  • The Many Ways Trump is Trying To Tip The Scales in Mid Terms. (NYT)
  • Kroger (KR) let’s consumers use gas rewards for groceries. (USA Today)
  • Susquehana says it lost millions to insider traders in options. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks at 7:45 a.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Receives his Intelligence Briefing at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Pre-Tape Interview at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 6:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • Jobless Claims out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
      • Natural Gas Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly
      • June Nonfarm Payrolls are out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 110,000 from 172,000.
      • The June Unemployment Rate is also out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to remain at 4.30%.
      • May Factory Orders are out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 1.50% from 4.80%.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 66% from 66% of Equities are Positive, and 64% from 64% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Convertible Bond Investor Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: BKR of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: PRPL RNAZ of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.  None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: ADBE PLTR of note.

Downgrades: AGNT SKYW of note.

Initiations:   Buys: CRNX INFQ JFB of note.  Sells: None of note.