CAPIS Morning Note – 07/01/26: Stocks Take a Breather

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.79% at 7499.36 from Monday higher by 1.18% at 7440.43. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7300. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400 S&P 500 hit […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.79% at 7499.36 from Monday higher by 1.18% at 7440.43.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7300. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400
  • S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.463% from 4.367% .

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks were in a two-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.93% in the last week. That ended this past week.
  • U.S. moves into Week 19 of its attack on Iran. Is the deal really a deal and a conclusion to the war going to really happen this week or just another week of kicking the can down the road?
  • There were four down -1% days in June which is now over. Will this trend continue in July?
  • 2 Day Winning Streak on the S&P 500. Three days?

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

  • Economic news of note.
  • Weekly –
    • MBA Mortgage Applications out at 7:00 a.m. EDT
    • Crude Oil Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • Monthly-
    • ADP Employment Report, Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing Index of note this morning.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Fed Chairman Warsh at 9:00 a.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Heads to North Dakota.
    • Participates in the Freedom 250 Train Ride and Welcome Ceromony at 1:10 p.m. EDT in Medora, ND.
    • Delivers Remarks at 3:15 p.m. EDT from the Burning Hills Ampitheater.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: STZ +0.24, PRGS +0.13 and NKE +0.08 of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Winners From After The Close: BE +8.5%, LUNR +6.7%, STZ +4%, FLY +3.2%, ALSN +2.90%,

Losers From After The Close: FLZH -7.4%, PZZA -4.9%, NKE -4.4%, ABR -2.2%, FAC -2.20%

After The Close: None of note.

Executive, Corporate Changes: None of note.

Buybacks of Note: None of note.

Dividend Calendar:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Thursday: PWR CMCSA BMY GD ITUB RSG SYY RGLD BRX ESE SSD ESAB CPB HASI ABM ATHM TWO of note.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 -8.50, NASDAQ 100 -93, Dow Jones -100. Europe is mixed and Asia is also mixed. Bond yield is at 4.469% from 4.367% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $58,627 from $59,245.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Technology, Industrials and Materials were higher.
  • Daily Materials, Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Utilities, Healthcare and Energy were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close:

 

  • Thursday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: MSM +0.15 of note.
  • Missed: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: FDS GIS UNF of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
  • Mixed – None of none.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth remains in good shape

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: CTNM +9.2%, BE +8.8%, MSM +8.4%, LUNR +7.3%, FMC +6.9%, AIOT +6.3%, ALSN +4.7%, SITC +4.3%, FLY +3.9%, ARX +3.5%, ALVO +3%, TALO +2.6%, ICFI +2.3%, STZ +2% of note
  • Gap Down: CAST -15%, PZZA -5.6%, AA -5.3%, FLZH -3.4%, NKE -3.4%, NIO -2.8%, FAC -2.5%, PRGS -2%

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • Will return tomorrow.

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh speaks at 9:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Heads to North Dakota.
    • Participates in the Freedom 250 Train Ride and Welcome Ceromony at 1:10 p.m. EDT in Medora, ND.
    • Delivers Remarks at 3:15 p.m. EDT from the Burning Hills Ampitheater.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • MBA Mortgage Applications out at 7:00 a.m. EDT.
      • Crude Oil Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly
      • June ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 112,000 from 122,000.
      • May Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.4%.
      • June ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 53.80% from 54%.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 66% from 88% of Equities are Positive, and 64% from 24% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • HC Wainwright Cell Therapy Conference
    • Goldman Sachs Global Copper Week
    • Bank of America Convertible Bond Investor Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: AIDX of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • International Congress of Children’s Bone Health

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations.

Upgrades: ABVX CHKP CRM DLO FSUN LMT MUSA NOW TALO  of note.

Downgrades: WRB of note.

Initiations:   Buys: AMPL CARL FDXF KZIA SER STRZ of note.  Sells: MKL of note.