CAPIS Morning Note – 06/30/23: Markets Await Latest PCE Core & Personal Income Data at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Stocks Higher Into Data.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4396.44 higher by 0.45% from Wednesday at 4376.86 lower by -0.04%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4452.50 at 6:15 a.m. EDT while the low was high at 4434.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 18 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is […]

Overnight Summary:  The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 4396.44 higher by 0.45% from Wednesday at 4376.86 lower by -0.04%. Overnight ranges saw the high hit at 4452.50 at 6:15 a.m. EDT while the low was high at 4434.75 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The range overnight was 18 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 19.50 from 20.  The average for May was 21.63. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 15.25 points and is up by +0.34% at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: SGH +0.26, PRGS +0.16, ACCD +0.10 of note
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: NKE (0.02) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

   

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • INTS: Pricing of Upsized Initial Public Offering – 3,900,000 shares @$5.
    • Mira Pharmaceuticals (MIRA) files for IPO in busy week for deals. (MarketWatch)
    • VTMX: Announces Pricing Of Initial Public Offering Of Us$387.5 Million (Gross Proceeds) Of Adss.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • AENT: Announces Pricing of Public Offering and Nasdaq Listing.. 1,335,000 shares of Alliance Entertainment’s Class A common stock at a price to the public of $3.00 per share.
    • BDTX: Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock.. 15M @$5.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • TCN: Prices $416 Million Securitization at Weighted Average Yield of 5.86%, Further Reducing Floating Rate Debt.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ACXP: Filed Form S-1.. 2,666,666 Shares of Common Stock.
    • FLEX: Announces Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares in Offering of Class A Common Stock.
    • KRBP: Form S-1 Filed Offering.
    • MDVL: Filed Form S-3.. 99,626,396 Shares Common Stock.
    • MVIS: announced last night completion of at-the-market equity facility.
    • OTRK: Form S-1 Filed Offering.
    • POET: “At-the-Market” Public Offering in the United States and Canada.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BTE: Files for 168,891,994 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
    • DRIO: Form S-3 Filed ..6,583,890 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
    • BTE: Form F-3 Filed .. 168,891,994 Common Shares Offered by the Selling Shareholders.
    • LUNR: Files for 4,885,057 shares of common stock by selling shareholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CRMT: Files $400 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • PWOD: Form S-3 Filed $85,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • TRVI: Files $200 million mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • CGC: Announces Equitization of C$12.5 Million of Notes due in July 2023.
    • TCOM: Announces Completion of the Repurchase Right Offer for Its 1.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2027.
  • Tender Offer:
    • SSYS: Unanimously Rejects Nano Dimension’s Revised Partial Tender Offer.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • MOMO: Announces the Results of the Repurchase Right Offer for its 1.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025.
    • NAAS: Announces US$30 Million Private Placement of Convertible Note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: ACCD +17%, AUPH +11%, INDI +4%, MRUS +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: ROOT -16% of note.
  • News After The Close:
    • Nike (NKE) posts first earnings miss in three years as lower margins hit sports apparel giant. (CNBC)
    • Progress Software (PRGS) stock rises after earnings beat Street, outlook hiked. (MarketWatch)
    • Merus (MRUS) stock jumps 10% after FDA’s action on cancer drug. (MarketWatch)
    • FDA approves BioMarin’s (BMRN) gene therapy drug for hemophilia. (MarketWatch)
    • US, Dutch Set To Hit China’s Chipmakers With One-Two Punch. (RTRS Sources)
    • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Bostic: Unambiguous That Inflation Has Fallen Considerably -Signals More Ambiguous In The Last Six Months.
    • Brazil Sets Continuous Inflation Target, Keeps Goal At 3%.
    • VSE Corp (VSEC) awarded $565 million U.S. Air Force contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AbbVie (ABBV) elects Robert Michael as COO. (MarketWatch)
    • BRC Inc. (BRCC) Announces CFO Greg Iverson will step down; Mark Weinsten to serve as interim CFO; Chris Mondzelewski assumes COO responsibilities.
    • Colony Bank (CBAN) Names Derek Shelnutt Chief Financial Officer.
    • Dollar General Corporation (DG) Expands Board of Directors.
    • Edgio (EGIO) Completes Restatement of Previously Issued Financials and Files Annual Report on Form 10-K for Fiscal Year 2022.
    • Enovix (ENVX) Announces Farhan Ahmad as Chief Financial Officer. (MarketWatch)
    • FARO Techs (FARO) names Peter Lau as CEO.
    • 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (FLWS) Announces Leadership Change.
    • Home Bancorp (HBCP) COO Jason P. Freyou resigned.
    • Yum! Brands (YUM) promotes Sean Tresvant to Taco Bell Division CEO.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Autoliv (ALV) Retires Repurchased Shares, Decreases Number of Issued Shares.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • ATXG trading r/s price.
    • DOMA: 1-for-25 Reverse Stock Split to Become Effective on June 29, 2023.
    • EVLO trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: PINS CFO $1.6 million, BBY Chairman Emeritus $20 million

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +16, Dow Jones +87,  NASDAQ +70, and Russell 2000 +11. (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex the Nikkei and Europe is higher. VIX Futures are at 15 from 15.45 yesterday.  Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.88% from 3.749% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $30,776 from $30,725 yesterday, higher by 0.77%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Financial, Basic Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks ended mostly higher Thursday, getting a boost from the financial sector, on positive tones from the banking sector and the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 269 points, or 0.8%, ending near 34,122. The S&P 500 index ended 0.5% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite Index closed virtually unchanged. The S&P 500’s financial sector was a standout, climbing 1.7%, a day after 23 of the nation’s biggest banks passed annual “stress tests,” designed to model their ability to withstand a severe global recession scenario.  (MarketWatch – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: STZ +0.08 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: RAD, ACCD, PRGS of note.
  • Negative Guidance: BRCC, D of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: GOGN +16%, AUPH +15%, ACCD +13%, BDTX +9%, MRUS +6%, BGCP +4%, SGH +4%, LUNR +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: ROOT -17%, CRMT -5% of note.

Insider Action: OKE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens On Friday. (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: US States Once Awash In Cash See Their Fortunes Suddenly Reversed. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: A $100 Billion Wealth Migration Tilts US Economy’s Center of Gravity South (Bloomberg)
  • US Stocks Futures Gain, Bonds Decline Before Price Data: Market Wrap (Bloomberg)
  • Apple (AAPL) eyes a $3 trillion valuation. (Bloomberg)
  • Indiana Jones hits box office for one last adventure. (CNBC)
  • Markets’ Monster 2023 Rally has defied all expectations. (WSJ)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score almost hits 100% from 88%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 3:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route to Fort Lesley J. McNair and then Camp David, 4:00 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • May Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to remain at 0.4%.
  • May PCE Core is due out also at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.4%.
  • Chicago PMI 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • Farm Prices 3:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • CIRCOR International (CIR) Enters into Amended Definitive Merger Agreement with KKR at $56.00 Per Share in Cash.
  • Donaldson (DCI) acquires Univercells Technologies.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • Stifel Europe, European Healthcare Summit (06/29/23-06/30/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: