CAPIS Morning Note – 06/25/26: Look Up In The Sky, It’s A Bird, It’s A Plane, It’s Micron Earnings To Save The Day

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.10% at 7358.22 from Tuesday lower by -1.44% at 7365.46. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7300 from 7400. Resistance is now at 7400 from 7500. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7300 S&P 500 hit its 25th […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.10% at 7358.22 from Tuesday lower by -1.44% at 7365.46.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7300 from 7400. Resistance is now at 7400 from 7500. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7300
  • S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday, 6/2.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.41% from 4.483%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks are now in a two week winning streak, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.93% in the last week. We are now up 7.49% since the peak in January on the S&P 500 as of last Thursday’s close.
  • U.S. moves into Week 18 of its attack on Iran. Is the deal really a deal and a conclusion to the war going to really happen this week or just another week of  kicking the can down the road?
  • There have been four down -1% or more days in June so the potential for clustering rises, in other words more -1% days until month end.
  • 3 Day Losing Streak comes to an end?
  • LOL LOL LOL LOL ???? …never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down, never gonna run around and desert you. Closing price on Wednesday $1048.51

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

  • Economic news of note.
  • Weekly –
    • Jobless Claims and Natural Gas Inventories of note.
  • Monthly-
    • Personal Income. PCE Core and Durable Orders of note.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: None of note.
  • 7-Year Notes Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:  
    • Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Meets with the Speaker of the House at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Tele-Rally at 6:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Rose Garden Club Dinner with American Farmers at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings & News:
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • TSHA announces it has commenced an underwritten public offering of $200 mln shares of its common stock.
    • CDNL – Pricing of Upsized Public Offering
    • HTZ – Pricing of Offering of 37,037,037 Shares of Common Stock
    • ISPC: Form S-1.. UP TO 1,544,402 SHARES OF COMMON STOCK
      PRE-FUNDED WARRANTS TO PURCHASE UP TO 1,544,402 SHARES OF COMMON STOCK
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • HTZ – Pricing of Upsized $350 Million of Exchangeable Senior First-Lien Secured PIK Notes
    • EXR – Pricing of $550 Million of 4.900% Senior Notes due 2032
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
  • Private Placement:
    • ALOY – Private Placement of Common Stock for Gross Proceeds of Approximately $100 Million
  • Direct Offering: None of note
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats:  MU +4.28, MLKN +0.03, FUL +0.01 of note.
  • Misses: JEF -0.14, WS -0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note: None.

Winners From After The Close:

  • QCOM +13%, MU +12.4%, KMX +3.7%, NTST +3.5%, CBAN +3.4%, CURR +3.2%.

Losers From After The Close:  

  • SPRY -24.7%,  TSHA -4.9%

After The Close:

  • Micron (MU) prelim Q3 $25.11 vs $20.83 FactSet Consensus; revs $41.46 bln vs $35.85 bln FactSet Consensus. Up 9%. Sees Q4 $30.00-32.00 vs $25.72 FactSet Consensus; sees revs $49.0-51.0 bln vs $43.58 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Oil-Dri (ODC) announces plans to raise prices on the majority of its product portfolio during the first quarter of fiscal year 2027.
  • Federal Reserve’s Annual Bank Stress Test confirms that large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and able to continue to lend to households and businesses. (Release)
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) sees Data Center revs above $15 bln by FY29
  • RTX awarded a $398.7 mln Air Force contract for Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles.
  • Netstreit (NTST) will replace ProAssurance Corp. (PRA) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, June 29. 

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • KYMR appoints Felix Baker as Chairman of the Board of Directors.
  • ATNI appoints Courtland Madock as President and CEO.

Dividend Calendar:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Thursday: PM SRE  INVH ZBH POR WFG MTN GTY.
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Friday: DHR MDT CP HUM KDP RL ELS VMI FLS TRNO IRT TOWN CTS PSEC.
  • BNY announces an increase of its quarterly cash dividend from $0.53/share to $0.63/share.
  • GS intends to increase common dividend from $4.50 to $5.00 per share beginning July 1, up 11% from current level and up 25% from prior year.
  • MS to increase quarterly common stock dividend to $1.15/share from $1.00/share.  
  • WFC to raise its quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.50/share.
  • STT announces planned 10% dividend increase to $0.92/share.
  • MS authorizes share repurchase program of up to $20 bln after Federal Reserve released CCAR 2026 results. 
  • USB plans to increase quarterly dividend 3.8% to $0.54/share.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +49.25, NASDAQ 100 +610, Dow Jones +116. Europe is higher while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.41% from 4.483% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $61,247 from $62,394.

Sector Action: 

  • Daily Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Cyclicals, Consumer Defensive and Industrials were higher.
  • Daily Energy, Materials, Financials, Communication Services and Technology were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None
  • Friday Before The Open: APOG

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beat: SNX +0.71, AYI +0.14, MKC +0.11, CMC +0.03,DRI +0.03, BB +0.01 of note. 
  • Missed: WGO -0.10 of note. 
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
  • Mixed – None of none.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth remains in good shape

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%): 

  • Gap Up:  TECH +21.4%, MU +17.9%, MEI +17.6%, PRQR +11.9%, QCOM +11.8%, BNED +9.1%, FRMI +6%, IBM +4.4%, MDA +4.3%, WKEY +3.5%, KMX +3.4%, CURR +3.2%, NTST +3.1%, MKC +3%, IMXI +2.9%, LAES +2.5%, NNE +2.5%, AYI +2.5%, CGNT +2.1%, CODI +2% of note
  • Gap Down: SPRY -21.8%, TCOM -12.6%, TSHA -8.5%, FUL -7.1%, ATNI -6.1%, MLKN -4.9%, GSL -3.6%, COF -2.8%, CWCO -2.8%, RDNT -2.5%, CDNL -2.2%, HTZ -2%  of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: AMS of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Micron’s Earnings Blockbuster Reignites Tech. (WSJ)
  • NY Times Lead Story: A Solution to Growing Power Demand: Homes. (NYT)
  • USA Today:. College Majors that pay off.  (USA Today)
  • Bloomberg: Venezuela Quakes kill at least 164.  (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • New York Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks at 3:40 p.m. EDT.
    • Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee speaks at 6:30 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Meets with the Speaker of the House at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Tele-Rally at 6:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Rose Garden Club Dinner with American Farmers at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • Jobless Claims out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
      • Natural Gas Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly
      • May Personal Income is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 0.30% from 0.00%.
      • May PCE Core is out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%.
      • May Durable Orders are out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to -3.2% from 7.9%.

M&A Activity & Daily:

Moving Average Table: 88% from 94% of Equities are Positive, and 24% from 56% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Guggenheim BioFrontier
    • Stifel European Healthcare Conference
    • TD Cowen Tools/Dx Revolution
  • Top Analyst, Investor: CASY COYA ELTX FIG IOT NXDT QCOM SITE TLSI of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: BB, DELL, KR, LIVE, MRVL, OWL, S, TEX, TROW of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: XYL of note.

Downgrades: PVH of note.

          Initiations

      • Buys MPLT TNXP EQBK FBK FFIN HWC INBK PNFP SMBK SPFI BDSX CSTL XGN BRUN CMPS CRWV GHRS WHWK
      • Sells INTC