CAPIS Morning Note – 06/15/26: Stocks On Fire As War Could Be Coming To An End

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 0.50% at 7431.46 from Thursday higher by 1.75% at 7394.30. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7300. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400 S&P 500 hit its 25th […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 0.50% at 7431.46 from Thursday higher by 1.75% at 7394.30.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7300. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400
  • S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Tuesday.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +93.75 (+1.25%) at 7590.75 on the SP 500 at 6:55 a.m. EDT.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.441% from 4.459%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks started a new week winning streak, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.65% in the last week. We are now up 6.50% since the peak in January on the S&P 500 as of last Friday’s close.
  • U.S. moves into Week 17 of its attack on Iran. Is the ceasefire and a conclusion to the war going to really happen this week or just another week of  kicking the can down the road?
  • Short Interest Shares Short continues to move higher but dollars short drops $600 billion in last 45 days (last three reports).

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly –  None of note.
    • Monthly – Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index of note.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Blackout period.
  • President Trump’s schedule: 
    • Is in the air this morning flying to the Evian Resort in Evian-les-Baines, France.
    • Participates in a Bilateral Meeting at 11:30 a.m. EDT with The President of the French Republic [5:30 PM Local] at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an Official Greeting at 1:00 p.m. EDT  with G7 Leaders [7:00 PM Local] at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a G7 Leaders’ Working Dinner at 1:30 p.m. EDT [7:30 PM Local]

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note: None.

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • AIIO: Form F-1..  UP TO 35,000,000 CLASS B ORDINARY SHARES
    • ATOS – Closing of Registered Direct Offering of up to $16.5 Million in Gross Proceeds
    • BIAF: Form S-1.. 2,631,579 Shares of Common Stock
    • CLYM files prospectus supplement related to an open market sales agreement; may offer up to $100 mln of common stock.
    • FRHC launches common stock offering 
    • LGCB: Form F-3.. Up to 833,333 Class A Ordinary Shares
    • LTRN: Form S-1.. 2,242,719 Shares of Common Stock
    • MVIS: Form S-3..Up to $42,000,000 Common Stock
    • SBEV: Form S-1.. 10,000,000 Shares of Common Stock
    • SLE: Form S-3.. 1,072,900 Shares of Common Stock
    • XXII: Form S-3.. Up to 3,019,586 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Warrants
    • VENU discloses that it entered into an ATM sales agreement; may offer up to $250 mln of common stock discloses that it entered into an ATM sales agreement; may offer up to $250 mln of common stock.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement:
    • RKDA – Closing of $4 Million Private Placement Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules
  • Direct Offering: None of note
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • STI files for 8,629,516 share common stock offering by selling securityholders
    • SLXN: Form S-3..  Up to 859,609 Ordinary Shares by the Selling Shareholders
    • TVGN: Form S-3.. Up to 375,000 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholder
    • HSP also files for 13,029,338 common share offering by selling securityholder.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AMTB files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering.
    • AMH: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf
    • BRKR: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf
    • IRT files mixed securities shelf offering
    • IPM: Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf
    • MX files for $50 mln mixed securities shelf offering.
    • HKPD: Form F-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf
    • HSP files for $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering

After The Close:

  • Avista (AVA) pauses processing of energy service request from 500 MW data center developer while seeking broader policy and community alignment. 
  • Air Canada (ACDVF) welcomes the ratification of a new collective bargaining agreement with Unifor.
  • Paramount Skydance (PSKY) trading higher after hours following report that the Justice Department cleared its acquisition of Warner Bros. (Politico)
  • LMT awarded a $2.29 bln Navy contract.
  • SpaceX (SPCX) coming to your Index. How worried should you be? (WSJ)
  • World Cup’s $10 Billion Betting Boom Fuels Market “Gamification”. (Bloomberg)

Last Week’s Winners:  

  • TGTX (47.82 +19.07%),  FWRD (12.52 +20.85%), DLTH (4.71 +41.87%), CBRL (44.74 +33.39%), CECO (95.95 +22.98%), SFIX (4.19 +22.51%), NWL (4.41 +18.41%), ANF (88.28 +17.18%), PLAY (12.93 +15.45%), ICHR (75.4 +19.85%), KLAC (2309.95 +19.74%), UCTT (97.39 +18.66%), VECO (68.76 +17.64%), AMAT (529.12 +16.8%), CASY (905.42 +18.83%), ELF (58.05 +17.1%)

Last Week’s Losers:

  • TNDM (15.66 -19.03%), ARRY (7.00 -13.54%), OMCL (37.3 -13.26%), SA (25.82 -12.25%), PRIM (92.64 -23.97%), OXM (35.54 -19.46%), DAN (31 -12.37%), SAIL (14.44 -20.83%), ORCL (177.82),  -16.78%), HIMX (17.01 -15.29%), GWRE (115.43 -15.17%), AKAM (129.27 -13.43%), FIVN (20.55 -12.63%), STI (25.55 -28.47%).

Executive, Corporate Changes:

Dividend Calendar:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Monday: META UNH KO MRK TMO GILD MO VRT BN JCI ICE DLR PSA CVE AME DVN XEL GRMN STRD STRC CCI AIG TKO IRM EXR VG TECK PBA CW VRSK BCE TROW PKG OVV LDOS BNT DTM DOC ARCC AEG RNR AMH PSKY ALLE DPZ DCI SCI EMN VLY UGI NEU PB MAC EXP BYD WH GATX RRR M of note.
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Tuesday: None of note.

Buybacks:

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +97, NASDAQ 100 +619 Dow Jones +541. Europe is higher as is Asia. Bond yield is at 4.441% from 4.459% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,5244 from $63,764.

Sector Action: 

  • Daily Positive Sectors:  All others were the leaders.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare led the way lower.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None of note
  • Monday Before The Open: None of note

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beat: None of note. 
  • Missed: None of note. 
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
  • Mixed – None of none.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth improved on Thursday.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%): 

  • Gap Up: KEP +9.3%, NBIS +9.1%, OUST +7.2%, FRVO +7.0%, FSM +6.0%, ATS +6.0%, SPCX +5.7%, LEU +5.4%, MAX +5.3%, RACE +5.1%, TSEM +5.1%, CLDT +5.1%, PSKY +4.5%, AMD +4.4%, NTLA +3.7%, RYTM +3.5%, TLN +3.2%, AVAV +2.9  of note
  • Gap Down: RDY -15.0%, PRGO -7.0%, IPAR -6.6%, GLBE -6.6%, IMOS -5.8%, ENOV -5.5%, DOLE -5.2%, ANF -4.4%, EC -2.9%, NCDL -2.8%, TDAY -2.7%, VOD -2.7%, CF -2.6%  of note.

Insider Action: FBIN ECL RYAN STEP TMCI ALL sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: VIA of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Trump’s Iran Deal Raises Questions Set to Dominate G-7. (WSJ)
  • NY Times Lead Story: US and Iran Framework Brings Relief, but Challenges Loom. (NYT)
  • USA Today: Trump Brings a Bloody, On-Brand Birthday Bash to White House. (USA Today)
  • Bloomberg: US and Iran Agree to Open Hormuz This Week. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks Rally as Oil and Bond Yields Fall. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve Black Out Period
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Is in the air this morning flying to the Evian Resort in Evian-les-Baines, France.
    • Participates in a Bilateral Meeting at 11:30 a.m. EDT with The President of the French Republic [5:30 PM Local] at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an Official Greeting at 1:00 p.m. EDT  with G7 Leaders [7:00 PM Local] at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a G7 Leaders’ Working Dinner at 1:30 p.m. EDT [7:30 PM Local]
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • None of note.
    • Monthly
      • June Empire Manufacturing Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 12.5 from 19.60.
      • May Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 0.20% from 0.70%.
      • June NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to stay at 37.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 76% from 76% of Equities are Positive, and 58% from 68% Bonds are Positive.

  

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BAC Commodity Research Conference
    • FBN Technology Conference
    • H.C. Wainwright Neuro Perspectives Expert Summit
    • MS National Security Innovation Summit
    • Roth AdTech Summit
    • Singular Research Invitational Conference
    • Stifel Summer Solstice Conference
    • UBS Cape Cod Healthcare Summit
  • Top Analyst, Investor: IRON of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: DDOG HUBS UAVS of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • Databricks Data + AI Summit
    • HP Enterprise Discover
    • Nephron Healthcare Services Summit

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: DDOG HAWK PAYX SVM of note.
Downgrades: ODFL RWAY of note.