CAPIS Morning Note – 05/14/26: Stocks Higher As China Summit Continues.

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.58% at 7444.25 from Tuesday lower by -0.16% at 7400.96. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7300. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400. S&P 500 hit […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.58% at 7444.25 from Tuesday lower by -0.16% at 7400.96.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7400 from 7300. Resistance is now at 7500 from 7400. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7400.
  • S&P 500 hit its 16th All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Monday.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +19 higher by +0.25% at 7488.75 on the SP 500 at 6:15 a.m. EDT.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.457% from 4.465%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks had a sixth up week, with the S&P 500 gaining 16.17% in the last six weeks. We are now up 6.03% since the peak in January on the S&P 500 as of last Friday’s close.
  • U.S. moves into Week 12 of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is to see if an end to the war can be negotiated before Trump heads to China.
  • Trump continues meetings in China and continues meetings with Xi and his team.
  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly – Jobless Claims and Natural Gas of note.
    • Monthly – Retail Sales and Import/Export Prices of note.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today:  Hammack 1:00 p.m. EDT, Barr 5:30 p.m. EDT, Williams 5:45 p.m. EDT and Barr 7:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Treasury 30 Year Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in a State Banquet with the President of the People’s Republic of China [Local: 6:00 PM] at 6:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Executive Time [Local 8:00 p.m.] at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Greeting and Friendship Photo with the President of the People’s Republic of China [Local: 11:30 AM 5/15] at 11:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in  a Bilateral Tea with the President of the People’s Republic of China [Local: 11:40 AM 5/15] at 11:40 a.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats:  FNV +0.27, MAZE +0.13, NXT +0.13, REZI +0.05, ATRO+0.03, BGS +0.03, RZLT +0.02 of note. 
  • Misses: ANDG -0.41, QXO -.02, KRM -0.01 of note. 
  • Flat: RGTI of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: AVLN BWGC PS RIKU SBMT of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: IPOs Ahead This Week: Cerebras Systems said to target up to $4 billion raised in IPO.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • PDFS announces launch of public offering of common stock.
    • USAR files for 32,514,143 share common stock offering, relates to warrants.
    • KGS announces proposed public offering for $750 mln of common stock.
    • OKLO enters equity distribution agreement, dated as of May 13, 2026; may offer up to $1 billion of common stock.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
    • WLFC announces its intention to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $175.0 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2031 in a public offering registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Private Placements:
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • USAR files for 94,362,903 share common stock offering by selling stockholders.
    • CTRI files for 3,488,372 share common stock offering by selling stockholders.
    • NEXT files for 19,730,742 share common stock offering by selling stockholders.
    •  INTA files for 23,176,442 share common stock offering by selling securityholders.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • KGS files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • INTA files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • RLMD files mixed securities shelf offering. 
    • MIST files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering. 

After The Close:

  • Cisco (CSCO) blows it out. Beats on earnings and revenues and guides higher.
  • SharkNinja (SN) will replace Flowers Foods (FLO) in the S&P MidCap 400, and Flowers Foods will replace CSG Systems Intl (CSGS) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, May 18
  • F&G Annuities & Life (FG) will replace Mister Car Wash (MCW) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Tuesday, May 19.
  • Delay in 10-Q Filings: SPWR  

Wednesday’s Winners: GO +17.2%, STAA +16.9%, CSCO +16.5%, FOSL +14.1%, STUB +12.5%, AQST +9.7%, PGEN +4.8%, ARX +4.2%, OMER +3.7%, EQPT +2.5%.

Wednesday’s Losers: DOCS -19.4%, ALMU -15.1%, ENVX -10.8%, PBH -5.5%.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • JACK appoints Mark King as Executive Chairman and Interim Chief Executive Officer.
  • TOL announced that Seth Ring will succeed Robert Parahus as President and Chief Operating Officer effective June 30, 2026. 

Buybacks:

  • THG approves a new share repurchase program for up to $700 mln of common stock.
  • KEY authorizes new $3 bln share repurchase program.
  • KWR repurchase up to an aggregate of $250 million of its common stock.

Dividend Announcements:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Thursday: DAL EXE LPX LN PBF RMD SFD TJX WAL FANG HTGC POOL VNOM ZION of note.
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Friday:  of note.
  • PAG announces increased quarterly cash dividend to $1.42/share from $1.40/share 
  • MCHB increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.70/share from $0.40/share.
  • MFC increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.485/share from $0.35397/share.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:45 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 +, NASDAQ 100 + , Dow Jones + . Europe is higher while Asia is higher ex Japan and Shanghai. Bond yield is at 4.457% from 4.465% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $79,577 higher by +0.08% and 62 from $80.807 higher by +0.04% up by $31.

Sector Action: 

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive were higher. 
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Financials, Real Estate and Industrials were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None of note.

  • Thursday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beat: DDS +0.57, VSNT +0.41, CSIQ +0.11, YETI +0.08, CLBT +0.07, NIQ +0.05, WWW +0.03 of note. 
  • Missed: BLSH -4.00, FRMI -0.27, BTDR -0.22, WYFI -0.03, GOOS -0.03 of note. 
  • Flat:  None of note.
  • Still to Report: Several of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning –  YETI CSCO of note.
  • Mixed – None of none.B
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – CSIQ DOCS of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%): 

  • Gap Up:  PGEN +27.6%, GO +17.3%, CSCO +16.8%, STAA +13.9%, STUB +13.6%, FOSL +11.8%, CPA +11.2%, YETI +9.5%, AQST +7.7%, JACK +6.7%, SN +5.2%, PSIX +4.7%, ARX +4.5%, MRVL +3.9%, PAG +3.9%, ALGT +3.7%, FG +3.3%, EQPT +3.3%, CSIQ +3.2%, SEV +3.1%, WWW +3%, HMC +2.7%, ELE +2.7%, HPE +2.6%, NUVB +2.4%, LWAY +2.4%, AHRT +2.2% of note.
  • Gap Down: DOCS -22.5%, ALMU -15.6%, PDFS -10.8%, ENVX -8.5%, PBH -7.5%, KGS -5.5%, OKLO -3.9%, MFC -2.8% of note.
  • of note.

Insider Action: TKO ZTS sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  KHC see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history:  None of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Xi’s Warning To Trump Highlights Tensions Behind Beijing Summit. (WSJ)
  • NY Times Lead Story: Why Xi Does Not Need A Deal With Trump. (NYT)
  • USA Today:  Grocery Prices Are Up. How to Save. (USA Today)
  • Bloomberg: Trump Invites Xi to Visit White House in September. (Bloomberg)
  • META is preparing to cut about 10% of staff on May 20, nearly 8,000 people. It has also forcibly moved at least 1,000 top engineers into a new Applied AI Engineering unit.
  •  RUBIO TO NBC: ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN NOT PROMINENT IN CHINA TALKS. 

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Hammack spoke at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Federal Reserve New York President Williams speaks at 5:45 p.m. EDT.
    • Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • President Trump arrives in Beijing, China.
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Greeting with Chinese President Xi at 10:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Bilateral Meeting with Chinese President Xi at 10:15 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly –
      • Natural Gas Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT of note.
      • Jobless Claims are due out at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly –
      • April Retail Sales ares due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 0.4% from 1.70%.
      • April Import/Export Prices are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 0.8% and 1.60%.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 90% from 93% of Equities are Positive, and 4% from 0% Bonds are Positive. 

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BAC Healthcare Conference
    • BAC Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference
    • BAC Industrials, Transportation & Airlines Conference
    • BMO Global Farm to Market Conference
    • DB Global Solar & Clean Tech Conference
    • Houlihan Lokey Global Conference
    • MS Innovation & Impact Summit
    • Needham Technology, Media, & Consumer Conference
    • Oppenheimer MedTech Bus Tour
    • WFC Financial Services Investor Conference
    • Wolfe Badishkanian Small Group May Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: APPN CRVS DXCM FISV FRSH LFUS RGNX SCHW VOXR of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: BBBY CLF CVS F FLS JBLU KEY LVS MO MS T TSCO YUM of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • ASGCT

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades:  CMC SBUX  of note.
Downgrades: MAA DKNG of note.