CAPIS Morning Note – 04/09/26: Stocks Lower. The Masters Starts Today With War Still Weighing on Sentiment

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 2.51% at 6782.81 from Tuesday higher by 0.08% at 6616.85. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6700 from 6600. Resistance is now at 6800 from 6700. A gain of one level from Tuesday. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 2.51% at 6782.81 from Tuesday higher by 0.08% at 6616.85.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6700 from 6600. Resistance is now at 6800 from 6700. A gain of  one level from Tuesday.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -24 at 6800 on the SP 500 at 6:50 a.m. EDT.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.287% from 4.244%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks finally had an up week, 3.36%, after having lost -4.63% in the last five weeks and -9.09% since the peak in January on the S&P 500. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • U.S. moves into Week Seven of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is to see if the ceasefire holds.
  • Master’s Picks? Scottie, Rory, Bryson or Tommy to win.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still backed up due to the government shutdown, but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly – Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. EDT and Natural Gas Inventories at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly –  Personal Income, PCE Core and Q4 GDP are out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Daly – 1:05 p.m. EDT.
  • 30 Year Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Receives Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Policy Meetings at 1:30 p.m. EDT and 2:00 p.m. EDT as well as 5:00 p.m. EDT and 6:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Roundtable on MAHA a4 4:00 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: STZ +0.19, PSMT +0.05 of note. 
  • Misses: APLD -0.21 of note.
  • Flat:  None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
    • AACP – Closing of $172.5 Million Initial Public Offering.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • FBRX commences public offering of common stock; Amount of offering not disclosed.
    • NUAI commences stock offering from existing shelf.
    • ALBT: Form RW Filed, Form S-1.. Up to 19,436,278 Shares of Common Stock.
    • PLRZ – Closing of $3.5 Million Registered Direct and Private Placements.
    • SDST: Form RW Filed.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

News After The Close: 

  • 10K or 10Q Delays – None of note.
  • President Trump may pull forces from NATO countries that did not support U.S. in Iran.
  • NASDAQ (NDAQ) reports monthly volumes for March 2026; U.S. equity options volume of 393 million contracts compared to 327 million in March 2025.
  • Costco (COST) reports March adjusted comparable sales of +6.2%.
  • LMT awarded a $105 million Air Force task order.
  • Nebius Group (NBIS) ticking lower on report it’s in talks to buy Israeli AI startup AI21.

Buybacks: 

  • AGX approves increase in existing share repurchase program from $150 million to $200 million.
  • VOYA entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement to acquire $150 million of common stock during 2Q26.

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • CAT announces that CFO Andrew Bonfield has elected to retire and that Kyle Epley has been appointed CFO effective May 1, 2026.
  • ULH that Michael Rogers has been appointed CFO and Treasurer, effective June 1, 2026.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Today: MA ORCL CRM TD ACN BBVA INTU JD KRG BRC of note.
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Friday: VZ T GD MRVL HLN DRI IHG GIS TOL VIPS LNC SAIC BKU AAP AEO of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 -28, NASDAQ 100 -85, Dow Jones -231. Europe is lower while Asia is lower ex Australia.  Bond yield is at 4.287% from 4.244% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $71,177 lower by -0.14% down $89 from $71,606 up by 4.18% higher by $2,887.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: All others were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy was lower. 
  • One Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: WDFC of note.

  • Thursday Before The Open: None of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: NEOG +0.03 of note.
  • Missed:  None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: SMPL of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – NEOG of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – STZ of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: STAA +22.6%, RELL +11.6%, WSR +10.9%, RGP +8.8%, FBRX +5.1%, RCEL +4.4%, ICFI +2.6%, CMRC +2.6%, MRAM +2.1%, TFPM +2.1%, BETR +2%, FSM +2%, of note.
  • GapDown: APLD -4%, RXST -3.8%, AGX -3.4%, ASRT -3.3%, VNDA -2.7%, BTI -2%, FRHC -2%, INTC -1.8%, NBIS -1.8% of note.

Insider Action: LW NMM see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Trump Allies, U.S. Officials Fear Iran Victory Lap is Premature. (WSJ)
  • Bloomberg Lead:. Iran Says All Ships Must Get its Army’s Go-Ahead For Hormuz. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks fall as US-Iran doubts push up oil prices. (Bloomberg)
  • NY Times Lead Story: Fragile Cease Fire Takes Hold as Both Iran and US Claim Victory. (NYT)
  • USA Today:  Master’s Updates and Leaderboard. (USA Today) 

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: Daly – 1:05 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Receives Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Policy Meetings at 1:30 p.m. EDT and 2:00 p.m. EDT as well as 5:00 p.m. EDT and 6:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Roundtable on MAHA at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly –
      • Natural Gas Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
      • Jobless Claims are 8:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly –
      • February Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.4%.
      • February PCE Core is also due out at 8:30 am. EDT and expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.4%.
      • Q4 GDP (final estimate) is due out at 8:30 and expected to stay at 0.7% with the deflator still at 3.8%.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: AssertioTherapeutics (ASRT) to be acquired by Garda Therapeutics for $18/share in cash.

Moving Average Table: 93% from 67% of Equities are Positive, and 60% from 40% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • GS Private Company Software & Internet Conf
    • Gabelli Waste & Environmental Services Symposium
    • Stifel Targeted Oncology Day
  • Top Analyst, Investor: ATEX DAKT of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: DOW TOVX of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: CNI DDOG STAA TXN UL of note.
  • Downgrades CRCL KOS ZS of note.