CAPIS Morning Note – 04/08/26: 2 Week Ceasefire. Stocks Rally

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.08% at 6616.85 from Monday higher by 0.44% at 6611.83. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6600 from 6500. Resistance is now at 6700 from 6600. A gain of one level from last Thursday. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.08% at 6616.85 from Monday higher by 0.44% at 6611.83.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6600 from 6500. Resistance is now at 6700 from 6600. A gain of  one level from last Thursday.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +178 at 6835 on the SP 500 at 6:40 a.m. EDT.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.244% from 4.341%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks finally had an up week, 3.36%, after having lost -4.63% in the last five weeks and -9.09% since the peak in January on the S&P 500. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • U.S. moves into Week Seven of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is if the ceasefire holds.
  • We have written in Erlanger Research and Market Rebellion Squeeze Play Pro about an A B C formation. Until last Tuesday morning, we were in a A Wave to the downside and then moved into a B Wave to the upside. The past five days have seen the S&P 500 move higher by 4.31% and are still in the B Wave. 

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still backed up due to the government shutdown, but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly –  Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly – March FOMC Minutes are out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Daly – 1:05 p.m. EDT.
  • 10 Year Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Meeting with the Secretary of Agriculture at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an interview at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Meeting with the Secretary General of NATO at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Freedom250 Reception at 5:00 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: PXED +0.24, LEVI +0.05 of note. 
  • Misses: GBX -0.35 of note.
  • Flat:  None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • ARTL: FormS-1..UP TO 9,820,294 Shares of Common Stock.
    • EQ: Form S-3.. 18,878,101 Shares of Common Stock.
    • LGN – Pricing of Upsized Secondary Underwritten Public Offering of Class A Common Stock.
    • VBIX: Form S-3.. 1,472,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • VERU: FORM S-3 – 23,800,000 Shares Common Stock.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
    • STNG – Proposed Offering of Convertible Senior Notes and Concurrent Stock Repurchase.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • EQ files for 18,878,101 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • TBN files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • KEEL files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • LAND: Form S-3.. $1,000,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • BY files mixed securities shelf offering .

News After The Close: 

  • 10K or 10Q Delays – None of note.
  • U.S. and Iran agree to a 2-week ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz to be opened to travel.
  • Rigetti (RGTI) announces general availability of its 108-qubit quantum computing system, Cepheus-1-108Q.
  • Jefferies (JEF)  discloses gross mark-to-market loss of $42.8 million associated with Market Financial Solutions during Q1.
  • GD awarded a $450 mln agreement for next phase in advanced reconnaissance vehicle competition.
  • Diebold (DBD) will replace Sealed Air Corp. (SEE) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Friday, April 10.

Buybacks: 

  • NTNX authorizes an increase of $750 million of common stock to company’s existing share repurchase program; Total authorization now stands at approximately $779 million. 

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • KRUS announces that Jeff Uttz, CFO and Treasurer, will depart from the company effective April 28, 2026; Hajime Uba, President and CEO, will serve as Interim CFO 

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Today: BBDO BBD ZTO BEKE TIGO GAP YMM IDCC MSM GNTX MAIN of note.
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Thursday:  MA ORCL CRM TD ACN BBVA INTU JD KRG BRC of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 +181, NASDAQ 100 +833, Dow Jones +1250. Europe is higher while Asia is high.  Bond yield is at 4.244% from 4.345% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $71,606 up by 4.18% higher by $2,887 from $68,266 lower by -2.11% by $-1479.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: All others were higher led by Communications Services, Energy and Technology.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive and Consumer Cyclical were lower. 
  • One Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: APLD STZ PSMT of note.

  • Thursday Before The Open: NEOG SMPL WLTH of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: RPM +0.22, DAL +0.06 of note.
  • Missed:  None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – DAL of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: LEVI +10.7%, OSCR +10.4%, KDK +9.1%, AEHR +8.6%, PONY +8.2%, RGTI +7.9%, ATAI +7.8%, NNE +7.4%, APP +5.9%, GRAL +5.8%, VALE +5.4%, MESO +5.4%, SMCI +5.3%, LITE +5.2%, ECX +5%, GTX +5%, DBD +4.8%, WLTH +4%, UMC +3.9%, NTNX +3.7%, YOU +3.7%, IWM +3.6%, BLRX +3.5%, QQQ +3.4%, NRIX +3.2%, SPY +2.6%, LGN +2.6%, DIA +2.4%, INSM +2.1% of note.
  • GapDown: TBN -22.6%, USO -11.8%, LXU -9.6%, VET -7.5%, PSX -5.6%, GBX -5.5%, KRUS -5.5%, XOM -5.2%, XLE -4.7%, BP -3.7%, SHEL -3.6%, TTE -3.5%, HAL -3.3%, SLB -2.9%, SLB -2.9% of note.

Insider Action: FUL see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: The Day Trump’s Iran Threat Gripped The World. (WSJ)
  • Bloomberg Lead:. Iran and Gulf States Report Attacks After Ceasefire Deal. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks soar as relief rally takes hold and oil drops. (Bloomberg)
  • NY Times Lead Story: Fragile Ceasefire Takes Hold as Iran and U.S. Both Claim Victory. (NYT)
  • USA Today: Iran Will Peace Last. (USA Today) 

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: Daly – 1:05 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Meeting with the Secretary of Agriculture at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an interview at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Meeting with the Secretary General of NATO at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Freedom250 Reception at 5:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly –
      • Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly –
      • March FOMC Meeting Notes are due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 67% from 60% of Equities are Positive, and 40% from 32% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • GS Private Company Software & Internet Conf
    • Jefferies Latin American Summit
    • Jefferies Nuclear Conference
    • JPM Retail Round Up Forum
    • Stifel Targeted Oncology Day
    • UBS Future of Healthcare Private Company Symposium
    • WFC Private Biopharma Symposium
  • Top Analyst, Investor: AUTL MESO PRQR of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: KYN LEN PLAB SLB  of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • Brazil Investment Forum
    • Nutanix Next

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: FRPT GATX LPLA RELX TMUS of note.
  • Downgrades COIN of note.