CAPIS Morning Note – 04/07/26: Iran Deadline Looms, Decimation Ahead?

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.44% at 6611.83 from Thursday higher by 0.11% at 6582.69. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6600 from 6500. Resistance is now at 6700 from 6600. A gain of one level from Thursday. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.44% at 6611.83 from Thursday higher by 0.11% at 6582.69.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6600 from 6500. Resistance is now at 6700 from 6600. A gain of  one level from Thursday.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -22.50 at 6628.50 on the SP 500 at 7:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.341% from 4.368%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks finally had an up week, 3.36%, after having lost -4.63% in the last five weeks and -9.09% since the peak in January on the S&P 500. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • U.S. moves into Week Seven of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is the conflict the 8:00 p.m. deadline tonight.
  • We have written in Erlanger Research and Market Rebellion Squeeze Play Pro about an A B C formation. Until last Tuesday morning, we were in a A Wave to the downside and then moved into a B Wave to the upside. The past four days have seen the S&P 500 move higher by 4.23% and are still in the B Wave. 

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still backed up due to the government shutdown, but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly –  API Petroleum Data at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Monthly – Durable Orders and Consumer Credit out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and 3:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Goolsbee – 12:30 p.m. EDT, Musalem – 12:35 p.m. EDT and Jefferson  – 5:50 p.m. EDT.
  • 3 Year Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Dinner with the U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of India at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note. 
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat:  None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
    • AACP – Pricing of $150 Million Initial Public Offering.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • AIDX: Form S-1.. 10,105,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • LBRX: Form S-1.. Up to 4,778,491 Shares of Common Stock.
    • MNR – Pricing of Secondary Public Offering of Common Units.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • URG: Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close: 

  • 10K or 10Q Delays – None of note.

Buybacks: None of note.

Executive, Corporate Changes: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Today: BNS EIX DG ERIE SFD MTCH GBCI CUZ WLY SLVM PFBC UPBD of note.
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Wednesday: BBDO BBD ZTO BEKE TIGO GAP YMM IDCC MSM GNTX MAIN of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 -28, NASDAQ 100 -133, Dow Jones -182. Europe is mixed while Asia is mixed.  Bond yield is at 4.345% from 4.362% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $68,266 lower by -2.11% by $-1479 from $69,689 higher by +3.47% up $2344.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: All others were higher led by Consumer Defensive, Financials and Communications Services.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Materials and Healthcare were lower. 
  • One Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: LEVI GBX of note.

  • Wednesday Before The Open: DAL RPM of note.

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: None of note.
  • Missed:  None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: SLNO +29.9%,  of note.
  • GapDown: WW -2.2%,  of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Hope Fades For Deal With Iran. (WSJ)
  • Bloomberg Lead:. US Conducted Strikes on Kharg Island. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks Drop and Oil Climbs. (Bloomberg)
  • NY Times Lead Story:  Trump Says Iran Proposal Is Not Enough. (NYT)
  • USA Today: Iran Will be Decimated. (USA Today) 

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: Goolsbee – 12:30 p.m. EDT, Musalem – 12:35 p.m. EDT and Jefferson  – 5:50 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Dinner with the U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of India at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly –
      • API Petroleum Institute Data is out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Monthly –
      • Durable Orders for February is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.50% from 0.00%.
      • February Consumer Credit is due out at 3:00 p.m. EDT and is expected to fall to $7.0 billion from $8.1 billion.
      • ADP Payroll at 8:15 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 60% from 57% of Equities are Positive, and 32% from 40% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Jefferies Latin American Summit
    • Stifel Targeted Oncology Day
    • UBS Future of Healthcare Private Company Symposium
  • Top Analyst, Investor: COO of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: ASO CUE NTNX ZENA of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • Brazil Investment Forum
    • Nutanix Next

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: ANET AX EWBC FBK MELI MS PNFP WING of note.
  • Downgrades FIBK KBH LEN NVR PHM TMHC of note.