Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.72% at 6575.32 from Tuesday higher by 2.91% at 6528.52.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 6500 from 6300. Resistance is now at 6600 from 6400. A gain of two levels from Monday.
- S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
- Futures are lower this morning by -76 (-1.15%) at 6541 on the SP 500 around 6:15 a.m. EDT.
- Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.368% from 4.287%.
Executive Summary:
- Stocks have lost -4.63% in the last five weeks and -9.09% since the peak in January on the S&P 500. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”.
- U.S. moves into Week Five of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is the conflict making progress on a ceasefire.
- The S&P 500 is now clustering with multiple (6) drops of greater than -1%. We are in a new month and so far have 0 drops of more than -1%.
- Futures are awful (-76 points) after Trump disappointed in his speech to the nation last night.
- We have written in Erlanger Research and Market Rebellion Squeeze Play Pro about an A B C formation. Until Tuesday morning, we were in a A Wave to the downside and then moved into a B Wave to the upside. The past two days have seen the S&P 500 move higher by 3.65% and if today ends up being as ugly as it is in the futures, then we will enter the C Wave.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note is still backed up due to the government shutdown, but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
- Weekly – Jobless Claims out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Natural Gas Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
- Monthly – None of note.
- Fed Speakers of Note today: None of note
- President Trump’s schedule:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
- Signs Executive Orders at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: PENG +0.10 of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: None of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- CLDX files a secondary offering.
- KMTS files for common share offering; size not disclosed.
- Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
- Private Placement: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders:
- INR files for 64,047,081 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
- LUNR files for 34,565,097 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- INR files for $750 million mixed securities shelf offering.
News After The Close:
- 10K or 10Q Delays – AFJK KRMN of note.
- Arcosa (ACA) completes sale of its inland barge business to Wynnchurch Capital for $450 million in cash.
- Trump Administration is preparing to reshape its steel and aluminum tariff structure.
- BA awarded a $900 million Air Force contract.
- BAESY awarded a $145.8 million Army contract.
Buybacks:
- SFIX announces it has resumed repurchases under its existing share repurchase program.
Executive, Corporate Changes:
- CVGI CFO Andy Cheung to resign; does not intend to initiate a search for a permanent CFO replacement; reaffirms FY26 revenue.
- MVBF promotes Michael Giorgio to additional role as COO.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Top Names Ex-Dividend Today: CSCO AXP PGR BMY ITUB RSG SYY ERIC GEHC NTAP RGLD TME GL BRX MORN SSD ESE CPB ESAB HASI ABM TWO of note.
- Top Names Ex-Dividend Monday: None of note.
- GBX increases quarterly dividend to $0.34/share from $0.32 per share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EDT)
- Futures S&P 500 -95, NASDAQ 100 -454, Dow Jones -577 . Europe is lower while Asia is lower ex China. Bond yield is at 4.364% from 4.285% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,332 lower by -2.68% down $1835 from $68,652 higher by 1.15% up $781.
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: All ex Energy and Consumer Defensive were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Energy and Consumer Defensive were lower.
- One Month Winners: Energy of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close: None of note.
- Monday Before The Open: None of note.
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: AYI +0.14 of note.
- Missed: MSM -0.02 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: AIRS LNN of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
- Mixed – None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: NCNO +20.8%, of note.
- GapDown: ORIC -21.8%, of note.
Insider Action: VTS TISI see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: CNTB RBRK of note.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- WSJ Lead Story: Oil Jumps After Trump Vows To Hit Iran Extremely Hard. (WSJ)
- Bloomberg Lead:. Hedge Funds walloped by a month of turmoil sparked by Iran War. (Bloomberg)
- Markets Wrap: Stocks tumble as Souring War Outlook lifts oil. (Bloomberg)
- NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Markets Recoil After Trump Claims Success in Iran Without Offering Exit Plan. (NYT)
- USA Today: How the Moon is Testing Our Ambition Again (USA Today)
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: None of note.
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
- Signs Executive Orders at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly –
- Jobless Claims out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
- Natural Gas Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
- Monthly –
- None of note.
- Weekly –
M&A Activity & Daily Changes:
Moving Average Table: 53% from 8% of Equities are Positive, and 48% from 4% Bonds are Positive.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Lytham Partners Industrials & Basic Materials Summit
- Oppenheimer Seed to Scale Ag Summit
- Top Analyst, Investor: None of note.
- Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- New York International Auto Show
- World Vaccine Congress
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: OLLI ROAD SGML TLRY VALE WING of note.
- Downgrades AKAM WIX of note.