CAPIS Morning Note – 04/01/26: Futures Higher As Trump To Speak To Nation Tonight

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 2.91% at 6528.52 from Monday lower by -0.39% at 6343.72. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6500 from 6300. Resistance is now at 6600 from 6400. A gain of two levels from Monday. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 2.91% at 6528.52 from  Monday lower by -0.39% at 6343.72.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6500 from 6300. Resistance is now at 6600 from 6400. A gain of two levels from Monday.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +53.50 (+0.81%) at 6442 on the SP 500 around 6:25 a.m. EDT.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.287% from 4.33%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks have lost -4.63% in the last five weeks and -9.09% since the peak in January on the S&P 500. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • U.S. moves into Week Five of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is the conflict making progress on a ceasefire.
  • The S&P 500 is now clustering with multiple (6) drops of greater than -1%.  We enter a new month today and now have 0 drops of more than -1%.
  • Futures are strong (+32.50 points) on reports that Trump is saying that U.S. and Iran are working on an end to the war. President Trump will speak to the nation tonight.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still backed up due to the government shutdown, but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly – MBI Mortgage Applications out at 7:00 a.m. EDT. Crude Oil Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly – Retail Sales out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. ISM Manufacturing Index out at 10:00 a.m. EDT. ADP Employment Report 8:15 a.m. EDT
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Musalem 9:05 a.m. EDT,  Barr at 9:10 a.m. EDT
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Attends Supreme Court Oral Arguments at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an Easter Lunch at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Delivers an Address To The Nation at 9:00 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: PVH +0.51, NCNO +0.16, NKE +0.06 of note. 
  • Misses: PLAY -1.54, RH -0.67 of note.
  • Flat:  None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • BTM: Form S-1.. 651,786 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • DTCX – Closing of $20.17 Million Public Offering.
    • FBLG – Pricing of $3 Million Public Offering.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • MU – Pricing of the Cash Tender Offers for Any and All of Certain Outstanding Senior Notes.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement:
    • TANH – Pricing and Closing of $2.15 Million Registered Direct Offering and Private Placements.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • SOWG Up to 109,009,250 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placements:
    • TANH – Pricing and Closing of $2.15 Million Registered Direct Offering and Private Placements.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ACNT: FORM S-3 – $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • CVU: Form S-3.. $30,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • GALT: FORM S-3 – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • RCEL: FormS-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • SOWG: Form S-3.. $1,000,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • XXII: Form S-3.. up to $250 million Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close: (Not updated due to technical issues)

  • 10K or 10Q Delays – ALTS of note.

Buybacks: (Not updated due to technical issues) 

Executive, Corporate Changes: (Not updated due to technical issues)

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Today: APD CAH STT RJF NYT ACM EHC FRT CUBE PEGA INGR CHH SFBS FULT CVBF ANDE TNET WWW PLPC of note.
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Thursday: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 +56, NASDAQ 100 +265, Dow Jones +396. Europe is higher while Asia is higher.  Bond yield is at 4.285% from 4.33% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $68,652 higher by 1.15% up $781 from $66,304 lower by -0.05% down $-34.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: All ex Energy were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy was lower. 
  • One Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close:

  • Thursday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: CALM +0.36 of note.
  • Missed:  MSM -0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: FDS SNX of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – NCNO of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – NKE RH of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: NCNO +20.8%, SHAZ +10%, NERV +5.9%, OMER +5.4%, CALM +5.2%, LI +5%, GALT +4.7%, AIR +3.9%, HHH +3%, PLAY +3%, AREC +2.9%, NIO +2.7%, XPEV +2.5%, DRS +2.1% of note.
  • GapDown: ORIC -21.8%, RH -18.6%, SVC -12.2%, NKE -10.5%, FBRX -4.8%, MSM -4.3%, KBDC -2.8%, PPHC -2.3%   of note.

Insider Action: NMM  sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. EPSN see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: UAE Wants Strait Open And Is Willing To Join The Fight. (WSJ)
  • Bloomberg Lead:. Trump Sees War Ending In Weeks While Taking Swipes At Allies. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks and Bonds Charge Higher As Oil Slides. (Bloomberg)
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Trump Says He Halted Nuclear Threat From Iran. (NYT)
  • USA Today:  Sky-High Gas Prices Are Changing The Way Americans Live. (USA Today) 

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve St. Louis President Alberto Musalem at 9:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Federal Reserve Governor Barr at 9:05 a.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Attends Supreme Court Oral Arguments at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in an Easter Lunch at 12:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Delivers an Address To The Nation at 9:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly –
      • MBI Mortgage Applications out at 7:00 a.m. EDT.
      • Crude Oil Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Monthly –
      • February Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise 0.50% from -0.20%.
      • March ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 52.30% from 52.40%.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes:

Moving Average Table: 53% from 8% of Equities are Positive, and 48% from 4% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Lytham Partners Industrials & Basic Materials Summit
    • Oppenheimer Seed to Scale Ag Summit
  • Top Analyst, Investor: NYXH of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: HPE of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • New York International Auto Show
    • World Vaccine Congress

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: PJT WFC of note.
  • Downgrades NKE (3) of note.