Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.39% at 6343.72 from Friday lower by -1.67% at 6368.85.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 6300 from 6400. Resistance is now at 6400 from 6500. A drop of one level again yesterday.
- S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is -7.33% from -6.96% on Thursday’s close.
- Futures are higher this morning by +53.50 (+0.81%) at 6442 on the SP 500 around 6:25 a.m. EDT.
- Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.33% from 4.396%.
Executive Summary:
- Stocks have lost -7.82% in the last five weeks and -9.09% since the peak in January on the S&P 500. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”.
- U.S. moves into Week Five of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is the conflict making progress on a ceasefire.
- The S&P 500 is now clustering with multiple (6) drops of greater than -1%. A new drop was added Friday.
- Futures are strong (80 points) on reports that Trump is saying that U.S. may pull out of Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening up. Yup that is correct.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note is still backed up due to the government shutdown, but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
- Weekly – API Petroleum Institute Data out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
- Monthly – Consumer Confidence out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
- Fed Speakers of Note today: Goolsbee 12:00 p.m. EDT, Barr at 3:00 p.m. EDT and Bowman 5:10 p.m. EDT.
- President Trump’s schedule:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
- Attends Chicago Opening Night at JFK Center For Performing Arts at 7:30 p.m. EDT.
- CNBC to interview Warren Buffet at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: PRGS +0.03 of note.
- Misses: PHR -0.04 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: None of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced:
- KPET – Pricing of Initial Public Offering.
- Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- CLGN: Form F-1.. 3,296,000 Ordinary Shares.
- FPS Closing of Public Offering of Class A Common Stock and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
- INSG: Form S-3.. UP TO 6,204,703 Shares of Common Stock.
- PAGP: Form S-3ASR.. Class A Shares.
- TPST: Form S-3.. 8,268,495 Shares.
- Notes Filed Or Priced:
- O – Prices $800 Million Offering of Senior Notes due 2033.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
- Private Placement: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders: None of note.
- Private Placements:
- ARTL – Closing of $11.0 Million Private Placement Priced At-the-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PLRX: Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
News After The Close:
- Netflix (NFLX) looking to expand its NFL package to four games.
- RTX awarded a $3.8 billion modification to Navy contract and also awarded a $125 million U.S. Transportation Command contract.
- Versigent (VGNT) will replace Titan International (TWI) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, April 2.
- American Express (AXP) named the official payments partner of the National Football League.
- Unilver PLC (UL) nearing deal to form $60 billion food company with McCormick (MKC).
- 10K or 10Q Delays – ALTS of note.
Buybacks:
- MTB authorizes new $5 billion share repurchase program.
Executive, Corporate Changes:
- INGN appoints Jason Richardson as CFO, effective April 6, 2026; reaffirms guidance.
- IMAX announces that CEO Richard Gelfond is on a temporary medical leave of absence as he undergoes treatment for pneumonia.
- CGAU announces that COO David Hendricks will be leaving the company.
- TRMK names Thomas C. Owens as COO and Joseph E. Bond as CFO.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Top Names Ex-Dividend Today: TTE DE SYK USB ITW MDLZ TRP O MPWR WPM VTR FITB PCG NUE NTR A WTW STLD AVB VLTO CIB ZBH SUI ESS NLY WPC LECO CPT of note.
- Top Names Ex-Dividend Tuesday: APD CAH STT RJF NYT ACM EHC FRT CUBE PEGA INGR CHH SFBS FULT CVBF ANDE TNET WWW PLPC of note.
- JBSS declares special cash dividend of $1.50 per share
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EDT)
- Futures S&P 500 +63, NASDAQ 100 +206, Dow Jones +457. Europe is higher while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.33% from 4.37% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,304 lower by -0.05% down $-34 from $67,566 higher by +.83% up by $1215 yesterday.
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Financials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Healthcare were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Industrials, Technology, Energy and Consumer Cyclicals were lower.
- One Month Winners: Energy of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close:
- Wednesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: MKC +0.07 of note.
- Missed: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: FDS SNX of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
- Mixed – None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – PHR PRGS of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: SOGP +9.2%, MNSO +8.2%, SOGP +7.9%, SPCE +6.9%, NTRA +5.2%, MKC +3.7%, NBIS +3%, SPIR +2.9%, ARRY +2.9%, RKLB +2.4%, GLPG +2.4%, SPWR +2.2%, SNY +2.1%, MLI +2% of note.
- GapDown: PEPG -44.1%, PHR -26.8%, SVC -14.5%, IONR -12.1%, TE -9.3%, TRMK -7.3%, PALI -5.1%, JBSS -2.2%, VRT -2%, MTB -2% of note.
Insider Action: KMTS sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: STIM of note.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- WSJ Lead Story: Trump May End War Without The Strait of Hormuz. (WSJ)
- Bloomberg Lead:. Trump Tells U.S. Allies to Buy Jet Fuel From U.S. Or Get It From Strait of Hormuz. (Bloomberg)
- Markets Wrap: Stocks futures rise as Trumps weighs ending war. (Bloomberg)
- NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Average Gasoline Hits $4 a gallon. (NYT)
- USA Today: Supreme Court may side with Trump on birthright citizenship. (USA Today)
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
- Federal Reserve Chicago President Goolsbee at 12:00 p.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Governor Barr at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
- Federal Reserve Governor Bowman at 5:10 p.m. EDT.
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
- Attends Chicago Opening Night at JFK Center For Performing Arts at 7:30 p.m. EDT.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly – API Petroleum Institute Data is due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
- Monthly – March Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 88 from 91.20.
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: Biogen (BIIB) to buy Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) for $41 a share.
Moving Average Table: 8% from 13% of Equities are Positive, and 4% from 0% Bonds are Positive.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Jefferies Power x Data Center Conference: Part II
- Kepler Aerospace & Defense Conference
- Oppenheimer Seed to Scale Ag Summit
- Top Analyst, Investor: CEG HSY KGC NXDT RGLD PWR SU SUN of note.
- Shareholder Meetings: HOV RDZN VNRX of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- American Academy of Dermatology Meeting
- New York International Auto Show
- World Vaccine Congress
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: APH EMR PRM VLTO of note.
- Downgrades PHR (3) of note.