CAPIS Morning Note – 03/20/26: Futures Lower to End The Week. Quadruple Witching.

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.27% at 6606.49 from Wednesday lower by -1.36% at 6624.70. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6600 from 6700. Resistance is now at 6700 from 6800. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.27% at 6606.49 from  Wednesday lower by -1.36% at 6624.70.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6600 from 6700. Resistance is now at 6700 from 6800. 
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is -3.49% from -3.23% on Friday’s close.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -45.75 (-0.67%) at 6614.75 on the SP 500 around 6:35 a.m. EDT.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.30% from 4.275%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks lost -2.02% two weeks ago and -1.60% last week. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • U.S. moves into Week Three of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is showing progress that the attack is moving to a conclusion, and that there is participation from other countries.
  • The S&P 500 is now clustering with multiple (3) drops of greater than -1%.
  • Today is Quadruple Witching. Watch for volatility and downside pressure.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly – Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Monthly – None of note.
  • 10-Year TIPS Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Now out of the blackout period.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in the Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Heads to Palm Beach in the late afternoon.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: FDX+1.10, FLY +0.11, PL +0.05, YSS +0.02 of note. 
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • CODA Up to 500,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • GNLX: Form 8K – entered into a Sales Agreement.
    • NUCL: Form S-1.. Primary Offering of Up to 23,422,133 shares of Common Stock Upon the Exercise of Warrants Up to 5,940,000 shares of Common Stock Upon Conversion of Series A Cumulative Convertible Preferred Stock Secondary Offering of Up to 30,059,408 shares of Common Stock Up to 11,922,133 Warrants.
    • NVGS – Commencement of Secondary Public Offering by Selling Shareholder and Concurrent Repurchase of Shares by Navigator Gas.
    • SABS – Closing of $85 Million Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.
    • SATL: FORM S-3 – $200,000,000 Aggregate Amount  of Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • SLDB: Form S-3.. 1,316,899 Shares.
    • SLDB: Form S-3.. 42,780,739 Shares.
    • UMAC – Proposed Public Offering.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • FLOC – Pricing of Public Offering by Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ALMS: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf
    • ASMB: Form S-3.. $400,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • CODA: FORM S-3 – $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering – Up to 500,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • DHT: FORM F-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • DRIO: Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • WPP: Form F-3ASR Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close:

  • FedEx (FDX) beats on earnings and revenues and raises guidance.
  • Planet Labs (PL) beat and raised. Stock higher.
  • 10K or 10Q Delays – None of note.

Buybacks: 

  • SCHL announces intent to repurchase up to $200 million of its common stock through modified dutch auction tender offer.
  • BOX is expanding its share repurchase program up to an additional $500 mln of common stock through September 30, 2027.  

Executive, Corporate Changes: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Today: WMT CNQ MSI VST IFF SBSW PSO HLNE MAIN ASO INSW TPB AIN RBCAA ALNT
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Monday: APH ITUB POR OTF BRKR DX BBU LTC NVGS
  • INDB  increases quarterly cash dividend 8.5% to $0.64/share from $0.59/share. 

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 -25, NASDAQ 100 -133,  Dow Jones -125. Europe is lower while Asia is lower ex China.  Bond yield is at 4.297% from 4.285% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $70,777 higher by 0.62% up $436 from $70,116 lower by -1.42% down $991.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy and Technology were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before The Open: None of note

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: None of note.
  • Missed: None of note.
  • Flat:  of note.
  • Still to Report:  of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – FDX PL of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: PL +16.4%, SCHL +10.4%, CURV +10.4%, TGNA +9.3%, YSS +9.2%, FDX +9.2%, PHR +7.7%, RYTM +7.4%, UAMY +5.8%, CHAC +5.5%, FLY +5.4%, GEMI +5%, ORN +3.6%, CORT +3.1%, BOX +2.3%, SLDB +2.1%, TNET +2% of note.
  • GapDown: SMCI -23.2%, UMAC -9.8%, FLOC -7.6%, NVGS -6.8%, KNOP -5.4%, SATL -4.3%, RLMD -2.1% of note.

Insider Action: CRM GO sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: AFCG of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: US War Planes and Helicopters Kick Off Battle to Reopen Hormuz. (WSJ)
  • Bloomberg Lead: Iran Continues Gulf Strikes After Israel Vows To Spare Energy Sites.  (Bloomberg)
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Boston Scientific knew of battery failure in its pacemakers. (NYT)
  • USA Today:  Hegseth Wants Billions More For Iran War as Trump Makes New Threats. (USA Today)
  • Thoughtful Money: Who Is Winning The Iran War? (Podcast)
  • The Big Take: Iran Leaves an Isolated Trump Grappling With Historic Oil Crisis. (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: None of note.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in the Commander in Chief Trophy Presentation at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Heads to Palm Beach in the late afternoon.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
    •  Monthly
      • None of note.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  13% from 17% of Equities are Positive, and 12% from 4% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Jefferies Auto Aftermarket Conference
    • Wolfe Badishkanian Small Group March Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: GWH HLIO RYTM of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings:  WBD of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • A.G.P. Tech Outing

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: OKE of note.
  • Downgrades: None of note.