Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.25% at 6716.09 from Monday higher by 1.01% at 6699.38.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 6700 from 6600. Resistance is now at 6800 from 6700.
- S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is -1.89% from -2.13% on Friday’s close.
- Futures are higher this morning by +35 (+0.51%) at 6805.25 on the SP 500 around 6:25 a.m. EDT.
- Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.183% from 4.224%.
Executive Summary:
- Stocks lost -2.02% two weeks ago and -1.60% last week. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”.
- U.S. moves into Week Three of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is showing progress that the attack is moving to a conclusion, and that there is participation from other countries.
- The S&P 500 is now clustering with multiple (2) drops of greater than -1%.
- All eyes are focused on the FOMC and its announcement and presser.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
- Weekly – MBA Mortgage Applications and Crude Oil Inventories.
- Monthly – PPI and Factory Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. EDT
- Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
- Fed Speakers of Note today: Now in the blackout period after today . FOMC Meeting ends today.
- President Trump’s schedule:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Dignified Transfer Ceremony at 2:30 p.m. EDT at Dover Air Force in Dover, Delaware.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: BOBS +0.24, LULU +0.23, ZTO +0.17, DOCU +0.06, HQY +0.05 of note.
- Misses: OKLO -0.10, TTAM -0.01, KMTS -0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: None of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- BMBL: Form S-3.. 58,618,411 Shares.
- LASE – Closing of Exercise of Warrants for $1.5 Million Gross Proceeds.
- RKLB: Form 424B5 — Up to $1,000,000,000 Common Stock.
- SABS – Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.
- STIM: FormS-3.. Up to 20,737,061 shares Common Stock.
- VEEE – Closing of Offering.
- Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
- ORA – Proposed Offering of $600 Million of Series A Convertible Senior Notes and $150 Million of Series B Convertible Senior Notes.
- Private Placement: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders:
- ATRA: FORM S-3 – Up to 400,000 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholder.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PLAG: Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- WETO: Form F-3..$100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
News After The Close:
- Cohu (COHU) announces that a leading U.S. based semiconductor manufacturer and foundry services company placed a multi-unit order for the Eclipse platform.
- Lululemon athletica (LULU) beat estimates and revenues but lowered guidance.
- Frontier Airlines (ULCC) discloses in filing that it entered into an amendment to the A320 Family Aircraft Purchase Agreement, deferring delivery of 69 A320neo family aircraft from between 2027 and 2030 to between 2031 and 2033.
- OKLO announces that the U.S. Department of Energy has approved the Nuclear Safety Design Agreement for Atomic Alchemy’s Groves Isotopes Test Reactor in Texas.
- Amazon (AMZN) ticks lower on report it wants to reduce its postal volume by at least two-thirds by this fall.
- Nvidia (NVDA) ticking higher on report its CEO says company is firing up H200 production for China.
- 10K or 10Q Delays NFE RILY TBRG
Buybacks: None of note.
Executive, Corporate Changes: None of note.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Top Names Ex-Dividend Today: HBAN CABGY BPOP AAON FSK CURB CSGS KRP KSS TUYA DOLE ARHS IGIC.
- Top Names Ex-Dividend Tomorrow:
- WSBF increases quarterly cash dividend 13.3% to $0.17/share from $0.15/share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EDT)
- Futures S&P 500 +28, NASDAQ 100 +136, Dow Jones +191. Europe is higher while Asia is higher as well. Bond yield is at 4.179% from 4.224% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are mixed with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $74,003 lower by -0.84% down $630 from $74,111 higher by 0.08% up $62.
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Financials and Industrials were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare, Consumer Defensive and Utilities were lower.
- One Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Communication Services and Technology of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Real Estate of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close:
- Thursday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: MOMO +0.34, M +0.14 of note.
- Missed: GIS -0.09, WB -0.07 of note.
- Flat: SAIL of note.
- Still to Report: JBL WSM of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – DOCU KMTS of note.
- Mixed – None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – LULU TTAM M of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: OVID +25.9%, NRGV +11.4%, HITI +7.2%, NFE +6.1%, HUYA +5.7%, ULCC +5.4%, ZTO +5.3%, RILY +4.7%, CTMX +4.6%, XOMA +4.5%, CTGO +4%, SLS +3.6%, DOCU +2.6%, ORIC +2.4%, NN +2% of note.
- GapDown: KMTS -6.4%, SABS -5.2%, TTAM -4.4%, RKLB -3.1%, ESEA -3%, MYGN -2.9%, BOBS -2.9%, WB -2.7%, ZNTL -2.6%, GTE -2.4%, SBSW -2.2% of note.
Insider Action: AVO GO sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: SARO of note.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- WSJ Lead Story: Israel is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One. (WSJ)
- Bloomberg Lead: Traders Rethink Fed Rates Outlook As Growth Worries Build. (Bloomberg)
- NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Flight Costs Are Up But Travelers Are Not Deterred. (NYT)
- USA Today: On Week Three, of the Iran War, Trump Faces A Hard Truth. (USA Today)
- Thoughtful Money: . (Podcast)
- Mortgage Applications plunge -19%.
- Macy’s (M) issues negative guidance.
- General Mills (GIS) misses estimates on consumers pulling back.
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: Now in the blackout period until after today’s FOMC Meeting.
- FOMC is out with its latest announcement at 2:00 p.m. EDT and a press conference led by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
- Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
- Participates in a Dignified Transfer Ceremony at 2:30 p.m. EDT at Dover Air Force in Dover, Delaware.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly
- MBA Mortgage Applications are due out at 7:00 a.m. EDT.
- Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
- Monthly
- February PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT with estimates at 0.30% from 0.50%.
- January Factory Orders are due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT and came in December at -0.70%.
- Weekly
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.
Moving Average Table: 37% from 20% of Equities are Positive, and 28% from 8% Bonds are Positive.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- JP Morgan Industrials Conference
- JP Morgan Napa Valley Biotech Forum
- KeyBanc Healthcare Forum
- Macquarie Bright Ideas Consumer Conference
- OFC Conference
- Oppenheimer’s Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference
- Piper Energy Conference
- Stifel CNS Days
- Truist Money in Motion Summit
- William Blair Park City Industrial Summit
- Wolfe Badishkanian Small Group March Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor: None of note.
- Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- Nvidia (NVDA) GTC
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: BILI, WPC, MSCI, LMND, LTM, ICHR, EPRT, DOV, PINE, ALGN of note.
- Downgrades: LLY (HSBC), CF of note.