Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -0.61% at 6632.19 from Thursday lower by -1.52% at 6672.62.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 6600 from 6700. Resistance is now at 6700 from 6800. THIS IS A CHANGE SINCE THURSDAY’S CLOSE.
- S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is -3.12% from -2.53% on Thursday’s close.
- Futures are higher this morning by +46 (+0.70%) at 6682.50 on the SP 500 around 7:35 a.m. EST.
- Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.22% from 4.165%.
Executive Summary:
- Stocks lost -2.02% two weeks ago and -1.60% last week. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”.
- U.S. moves into Week Three of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is showing progress that the attack is moving to a conclusion.
- The S&P 500 is now clustering with multiple (2) drops of greater than -1%.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
- Weekly – None of note.
- Monthly – Empire State Manufacturing and Industrial Production are due out at 8:30 a.m. and 9:15 a.m. EDT
- 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction at 11:30 p.m. EDT.
- Fed Speakers of Note today: Now in the blackout period before the next FOMC Meeting.
- President Trump’s schedule:
- No schedule today.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: None of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: None of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- JYD – Pricing of $6.7 Million Registered Direct Offering.
- KRRO: Form S-3.. Up to 7,650,764 shares of Common Stock.
- RBKB: FORM S-1 – Offering of Participation Interests in up to 3,298,199 Shares of Rhinebeck Bancorp.
- ZYXI: Form RW.
- Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
- Private Placement: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders:
- IRD: Form S-3.. 7,374,632 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- ASYS: Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- MTEK: Form F-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- NNOX: Form F-3..$100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- SLNG: FORM S-3 – Mixed Shelf Offering.
- STXS: Form S-3..$100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
News After The Close:
- U.S. carmakers warn Washington on Chinese auto threat ahead of Trump-Xi meeting. (Bloomberg)
- Hawaiian Electric (HE) discloses on its website that it’s working to restore power to about 8,000 customers across Oahu that were impacted by severe storms.
- Fastenal (FAST) announces it will begin construction of a new Southeast US regional operations and logistics center in Carrollton, Georgia. The groundbreaking ceremony will take place on March 24.
Buybacks:
- F authorizes repurchases of up to 31.7 mln shares to offset dilutive effect of other matters.
Executive, Corporate Changes: None of note.
Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EST)
- Futures S&P 500 +47, NASDAQ 100 +209, Dow Jones +225. Europe is mixed while Asia is mixed as well. Bond yield is at 4.257% from 4.2541% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $73,701 higher by 3.04% up $2157 and $72,281 higher by +2.83% up $1987 last Friday.
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Energy were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower.
- One Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Communication Services and Technology of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Real Estate of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close:
- Tuesday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: SAIC +0.44, DLTR +0.01 of note.
- Missed: BEKE -0.12 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
- Mixed – None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – SAIC of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: SOC +17%, NBIS +16.2%, ULH +9.7%, MU +4.3%, INFQ +4.2%, HIVE +3.8%, STXS +3.7%, GLSI +3.6%, BNC +3.1%, ENLT +2.9%, VTS +2.3%, NIU +2.1% of note.
- GapDown: ZEPP -10.4%, ASYS -7.5% of note.
Insider Action: ECC AMR sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. IP sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: SVRE of note.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- WSJ Lead Story: US Tries to Build a Coalition on Iran to Address Energy Crisis. (WSJ)
- Markets Wrap: Stock Futures Rise with Focus on Oil, Dollar Falls. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Lead: Iran Strikes Gulf Oil Hub as it Rejects Trump ‘s Ceasefire Claim. (Bloomberg)
- NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Why Little Was Done To Head Off Oil’s Strait of Hormuz Problem. (NYT)
- USA Today: Trump Demands Countries Send Strait of Hormuz Reinforcements. (USA Today)
- Thoughtful Money: Iran War to Send Gold Higher? (Podcast)
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: Now in the blackout period before the next FOMC Meeting.
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- No schedule today.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly
- None of note
- Monthly
- March Empire Manufacturing is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall to 0.50 from 7.10.
- February Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.4% from 0.70%.
- Weekly
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.
Moving Average Table: 17% from 20% of Equities are Positive, and 0% from 0% Bonds are Positive.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- JP Morgan Industrials Conference
- OFC Conference
- Oppenheimer’s Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference
- Piper Energy Conference
- William Blair Park City Industrial Summit
- Wolfe Badishkanian Small Group March Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor: CAN CTEV NSRX NVDA NWSA OKTA TMC of note.
- Shareholder Meetings: ADV SLXN of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- Nvidia (NVDA) GTC
- Optica Executive Forum
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: CRCL ECL PBR SMPL UPST of note.
- Downgrades: HAIN KLC QCOM of note.