CAPIS Morning Note – 03/13/26: Futures Are Higher, Will It Hold To The Open?

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -1.52% at 6672.62 from Wednesday lower by -0.08% at 6775.80. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6600 from 6700. Resistance is now at 6700 from 6800. THIS IS A CHANGE SINCE THURSDAY’S CLOSE. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -1.52% at 6672.62 from Wednesday lower by -0.08% at 6775.80.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6600 from 6700. Resistance is now at 6700 from 6800. THIS IS A CHANGE SINCE THURSDAY’S CLOSE.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is -2.53% from -1.02% on Wednesday’s close.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -28.75 (-0.42%) at 6750.50 on the SP 500 around 6:35 a.m. EST.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.22% from 4.165%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks lost -0.44% two weeks ago and -2.02% last week. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • U.S. moves into Week Two of its attack on Iran. Key to this week is a potential takeover of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The S&P 500 is now clustering with multiple (2) drops of greater than -1%.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly –  Baker Hughes Rig Count are due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Monthly – Durable Orders, PCE Core, Q4 GDP and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment are due out at 8:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • 30 Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Now in the blackout period before the next FOMC Meeting.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Signs Executive Orders at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Greeting with the National Finals Rodeo Winners at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Heads to Palm Beach for the weekend in the late afternoon.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: ADBE +0.19, RBRK +0.15, WPM +0.14, TTAN +0.09, SVCO +0.09, ZUMZ +0.08, PD +0.05, KLC +0.03, AVO +0.03, S +0.01 of note. 
  • Misses: ULTA -0.09, LEN -0.02, EVCM -0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • AAOI: Form 424B5 — $500,000,000 Common Stock.
    • AERT: FORM S-3 – Up to 1,355,906 Class A Ordinary Shares.
    • DNTH – Closing of its Upsized $719 Million Underwritten Public Offering Including Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • XENE – Closing of $747.5 Million Upsized Public Offering Including Full Exercise of the Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
    • INDV – Prices Upsized $450.0 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
    • PAR – Pricing of $250.0 Million of Convertible Senior Notes.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ACET: Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • ALEC: Form S-3..Up to $400,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • MBX: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.

News After The Close:

  • Broadcom (AVGO) announces that the Tomahawk 6 family switch series is now shipping in production volume.
  • Adobe (ADBE) beat on earnings and revenues. Guided higher yet lower as CEO moves to Chairman roll.
  • Robinhood (HOOD) out with February numbers. (Release)
  • Lennar (LEN) missed on earnings and revenues.
  • Amazon (AMZN) to shift Prime Day sale to June. (Bloomberg)
  • BA awarded a $2.33 billion option exercise modification to previously awarded Air Force contract.
  • RTX awarded a $266.9 million modification to Missile Defense Agency contract.
  • LMT awarded a $111.5 million Navy contract.

 Buybacks: None of note.

Executive, Corporate Changes: 

  • GRAL announces retirement of CEO Bob Ragusa and appointment of Josh Ofman, as successor; effective June 1.

Dividends Announcements or News:

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 +24, NASDAQ 100 +86,  Dow Jones +168. Europe is lower EX FTSE while Asia is lower as well. Bond yield is at 4.251% from 4.226% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are LOWer with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $72,281 higher by +2.83% up $1987 from $70,556 from $69,654 lower by -0.11% at $-82.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy and Utilities were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None
  • Monday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: BEKE +0.08 of note.
  • Missed: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – ADBE RBRK TTAN  of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – KLC  of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: TOI +15.6%, SVCO +10.3%, VACH +8.8%, VEON +7.8%, KLAR +7.5%, KYIV +5.9%, RILY +4.8%, KODK +4.4%, NKTR +3.8%, HIVE +3.4%, APEI +2.7%, CSTM +2.6%  of note.
  • GapDown: KLC -33.8%, EVCM -20.7%, PAR -19.9%, OFRM -19.3%, TBCH -16.9%, PD -14.6%, ZUMZ -9.2%, AVO -8.8%, ULTA -8.4%, ADBE -7.7%, TTAN -6.1%, S -5.2%, HNRG -4.5%, TIC -4.4%, PODD -3.9%, EGY -3.9%, AAOI -2.5%, AMCI -2.1%  of note.

Insider Action: GO AMR BBBY sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  IP sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: An Exodus of Money Endangers Wall Street’s Private Credit Craze. (WSJ)
  • Markets Wrap: . (Bloomberg)
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Oil Shock Sends Tremors Through the World Economy. (NYT)
  • Bloomberg Lead: Turkey says NATO Intercepted Third Missile Over Country. (Bloomberg)
  • USA Today: Iran War Updates. (USA Today)
  • Thoughtful Money: Crisis in Private Credit. (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: Now in the blackout period before the next FOMC Meeting.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Signs Executive Orders at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Greeting with the National Finals Rodeo Winners at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Heads to Palm Beach for the weekend in the late afternoon.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
    •  Monthly
      • February Durable Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to improve to 0.70% from -1.40%.
      • February PCE Core are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST as well and are expected to stay at 0.4%.
      • Q4 GDP (Second Estimate) is due out at 3:00 p.m. EST and is expected to stay at 1.40%.
      • March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to fall to 55.6 from 56.7.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  20% from 30% of Equities are Positive, and 0% from 0% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Truist Human Capital Day
  • Top Analyst, Investor: PROF SCHW VXRT of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: HEI PAPL of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • Nvidia GTC

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: CAE HNRG KNX LOCO NIO NOA QGEN of note.
  • Downgrades: KLC NRDS of note.