CAPIS Morning Note – 03/06/26: Thank God Its Friday (TGIF) as Down Week Coming to an End

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.56% at 6830.71 from Wednesday higher by 0.78% at 6869.50. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.56% at 6830.71 from Wednesday higher by 0.78% at 6869.50.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is -0.20% from 0.36% on Monday’s close.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -28.75 (-0.42%) at 6806.50 on the SP 500 around 6:40 a.m. EST.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.171% from 4.119%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks were higher two weeks ago by 1.07% on the S&P 500 but then lost -0.44% this past week. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • US increased Middle East Air Power to highest level since 2003 Iraq Invasion. And now we know why as we began actions against Iran over last weekend. Week One is complete.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly – Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m.EST.
    • Monthly –Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and then Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. EST
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Daley 8:30 a.m. EST and 10:15 a.m. EST, Collins 1:20 p.m. EST and Hammack 1:30 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EST.
    • Participates in Signing Time at 1:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Meeting with the Secretary of War at 2:30 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Meeting with the Secretary of the Interior at 3:30 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Saving College Sports Roundtable at 4:00 p.m. EST
    • Heads to Miami, time to be determined.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: GWRE +0.40, SOBO +0.21, COO +0.07, OMDA +0.07, PTRN +0.06, IOT +0.05, SWBI +0.04, COST +0.03, GDYN +0.01, MRVL +0.01 of note. 
  • Misses: MEOH -0.78, RUM -0.03, GAP -0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: PayPay (PAYP) files amended IPO prospectus, disclosing it intends to offer 31.05 million ADSs with projected price range of $17-$20 per share.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • ALOY – Pricing of Upsized $50 Million Public Offering.
    • CLDI – Proposed Public Offering.
    • VEEE Filed Form AW.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • AES – Launch of Consent Solicitation for Senior Notes.
    • EQIX – Closes Offering of $1.5 Billion of Senior Notes.
    • HAS – Pricing of Public Offering of Notes.
    • LNG Pricing of $1 Billion Senior Notes due 2036 and $750 Million Senior Notes due 2056.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • DY: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • LQDA: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • NOMD: Form F-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
    • OLN: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.

News After The Close:

  • Marvel (MRVL) beats by 0.01 and raises guidance stock up 12%.
  • Costco (COST) beats.
  • RTX awarded a $256 million modification to previously awarded Navy contract.
  • LMT awarded a $132.9 million modification to Navy contract. 

 Buybacks:

  • GAP to buyback $1 billion of shares.

Executive Changes: 

  • GIS appoints Jonathan Ness as Chief Supply Chain Officer, effective March 16, 2026.

Dividends Announcements or News:

    • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: PEP BHP BLK RIO TT RCL CRH GM LHX AJG FIX EBAY KMB TPR KHC NTRS CHRW ITT RS GPC KIM TAP KNX CBSH TEX WING LAD BTG PRMB OTEX  of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:45 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 -44, NASDAQ 100 -211,  Dow Jones -274. Europe is lower while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.173% from 4.113% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $69,824 lower by -1.92% down $1,362 from $72,878 lower by -0.74% down $-518 yesterday.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy and Technology were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Materials, Consumer Defensive, Industrials, Healthcare and Real Estate were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: AQN +0.01 of note.
  • Missed: EMBJ -0.40 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – GWRE MRVL PTRN SWBI of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning -Noneof note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: OMDA +19.2%, SWBI +13%, EVC +12.9%, MRVL +12.6%, IOT +11.6%, PTRN +8.2%, OPRX +7.4%, DTI +6%, ALNT +4.6%, GWRE +3.5%, TPC +3.4%, PBR +3.3%, CTNM +2.2%, EMBJ +2.2%, ERO +2.1%, USFD +2%of note.
  • GapDown: NUTX -27.5%, OWLT -23.7%, INGM -12.8%, MEOH -8.7%, ALOY -7.3%, PROF -7.2%, GAP -6.7%, ASLE -5.1%, AERO -4.8%, LQDA -4.2%, COO -3.7%, OLN -3.2%, GRNT -3.2%, RUM -2.9%, TNXP -2.3%  of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. LSAK CVSA WGS see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: UAE May Freeze Iranian Assets. (WSJ)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks fall as bond rout deepens after jump in oil price. Bloomberg
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: How $800 a Month Car Payments are Hurting Car Sales. (NYT)
  • Bloomberg Lead: War Keeps The Strait of Hormuz Almost Completely Shut. (Bloomberg)
  • USA Today: McDonalds (MCD) moves to a bigger burger, the Big Arch. (USA Today)
  • Thoughtful Money: Significant Economic Strain Ahead, David Rosenberg. (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: 3 of note: Daley 8:30 a.m. EST and 10:15 a.m. EST, Collins 1:20 p.m. EST and Hammack 1:30 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EST.
    • Participates in Signing Time at 1:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 1:30 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Meeting with the Secretary of War at 2:30 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Meeting with the Secretary of the Interior at 3:30 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Saving College Sports Roundtable at 4:00 p.m. EST
    • Heads to Miami time to be determined.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • Baker Hughes Rig Count due out at 1:00 p.m. EST.
    •  Monthly
      • February Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 60,000 from 130,000. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 4.30%.
      • January Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST as well and are expected to slide to -0.1% from 0.0%.
      • January Consumer Credit is due out at 3:00 p.m. EST and is expected to fall to $9.90 billion from $24 billion.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  33% from 36% of Equities are Positive, and 20% from 36% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • DA Davidson Best of Breed Bison Conference
    • MS Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: ATAI BMY LNTH of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: HBIO SAFX of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: ICE INTU MRVL (2), NFLX of note.
  • Downgrades: ADT, TTD of note.