Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Wednesday higher by 0.78% at 6869.50 from Tuesday lower by -0.94% at 6816.63.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000.
- S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been over one month since a new all-time high.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is 0.36% from -0.42% on Monday’s close.
- Futures are higher this morning by 1.75 (+0.04%) at 6877.75 on the SP 500 around 6:30 a.m. EST.
- Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.119% from 4.084%.
Executive Summary:
- Stocks were higher two weeks ago by 1.07% on the S&P 500 but then lost -0.44% this past week. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”.
- Bitcoin moved above $70,000 ending a month long move below $70,000.
- US increased Middle East Air Power to highest level since 2003 Iraq Invasion. And now we know why as we began actions against Iran over the weekend.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
- Weekly – Natural Gas Inventories and Jobless Claims are due out at 10:30 a.m. and 8:30 a.m. EST.
- Monthly –January Import/Export Prices are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and rose 0.1% and 0.3%.
- Fed Speakers of Note today: Bowman 1:15 p.m. EST and Goolsbee 7:00 p.m. EST.
- President Trump’s schedule:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EST.
- Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EST.
- Participates in a Visit of the 2025 Major League Soccer Champions – Inter Miami CF at 4:00 p.m. EST.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EST.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: CBRL +0.55, AEO +0.13, VEEV +0.12, BLLN +0.05, OKTA +0.05, AVGO +0.02 of note.
- Misses: STUB -1.54, KROS -0.16, BULL -0.04, GO -0.02, JBU -0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: None of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: PayPay (PAYP) files amended IPO prospectus, disclosing it intends to offer 31.05 million ADSs with projected price range of $17-$20 per share.
- Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- MAIA – Closing of $30 Million Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock.
- MDLN – pricing of secondary offering of class A common stock.
- SHC – Secondary Offering of Common Stock.
- Notes Filed Or Priced:
- POST – Pricing of Senior Notes Offering.
- SM – Prices an upsized private offering of $1.0 billion of senior notes due 2034.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
- DAVE – Pricing of $175 Million 0% Convertible Notes.
- Private Placement: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders: None of note.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- EFSC: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf.
- MDJH: FORM F-3 – $70,000,000 – Mixed Shelf Offering.
- OCS: Form F-3ASR – Mixed Shelf.
- SON: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
- WLKP: Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
News After The Close:
- Broadcom (AVGO) beats and raises.
- Morgan Stanley (MS) ticking higher following report it will lay off 2,500 employees.
- RTX awarded a $183 million Army contract
Buybacks:
- AVGO to buyback $10 billion of shares.
Executive Changes:
- JOUT discloses that CFO David Johnson intends to retire later this year.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today of note: QCOM WDC CI IMO ES EXPE EXE SGI JKHY ONB AWI LEA HWC VNT SLM TR LOB RYI AAT DEA of note.
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:45 a.m. EST)
- Futures S&P 500 -2, NASDAQ 100 -5, Dow Jones -122. Europe is mixed while Asia is higher. Bond yield is at 4.113% from 4.077% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $72,878 lower by -0.74% down $-518 from $71,028 higher by +3.94% up $2683 yesterday.
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Financials, Communication Services and Industrials were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Energy and Consumer Defensive were lower.
- One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close:
- Thursday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: ATHM +0.29, JD +0.21, CNQ +0.15, BILI +0.13, BJ +0.03, KTB +0.09, ONON +0.05 of note.
- Missed: LQDA -0.09, OLPX -0.03 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – BLLN AVGO VEEV of note.
- Mixed – None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – BJ GO of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: ALTO +25.8%, NAGE +18.6%, TTD +17.2%, VEEV +10.9%, WKEY +9.1%, AVGO +7%, OOMA +6.8%, GPK +5.9%, CBRL +5.6%, BLLN +4%, FIGR +3.9%, GOTU +3.7%, WIX +3.4%, BILI +3.1%, CNQ +2.2%of note.
- GapDown: GO -24.9%, PEPG -17.9%, SES -17.8%, STUB -13.3%, CCRN -5.8%, PLPC -5.3%, COHR -4.3%, IREN -4.2%, SHC -4.1%, STOK -4.1%, RGTI -4.1%, KROS -3%, STTK -3%, BTE -2.8%, AEO -2.6%, JBI -2.5% of note.
Insider Action: MORN TTD sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. DUOL LAW GTE see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: TTEC of note.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- WSJ Lead Story: How the Iran Conflict is Widening. (WSJ)
- Markets Wrap: Stocks waiver as oil and yields rise. Bloomberg
- NY Times Business Section Lead Story: China Sets The Growth Target Below 5% For First Time in Decades. (NYT)
- Bloomberg Lead: Strait of Hormuz escorts risk triggering Iran anti-ship missiles. (Bloomberg)
- Thoughtful Money: Investing in the Graphene boon? (Podcast)
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: None of note
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EST.
- Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EST.
- Participates in a Visit of the 2025 Major League Soccer Champions – Inter Miami CF at 4:00 p.m. EST.
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:30 p.m. EST.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly
- Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.
- Natural Gas Inventories due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.
- Monthly
- January Import/Export Prices are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and rose 0.1% and 0.3%.
- Weekly
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.
Moving Average Table: 36% from 47% of Equities are Positive, and 36% from 36% Bonds are Positive.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Corporate Conference
- Mizuho Technology Conference
- MS Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
- Wolfe Research Housing Conference
- Wolfe Research Refining Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor: GAP VRSK of note.
- Shareholder Meetings: BCTX COR MTSI SONO SYM of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- Miami Breast Cancer Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: CCRN DCH PENN of note.
- Downgrades: None of note.