Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Thursday lower by -0.54% at 6908.86 from Wednesday higher by 0.81% at 6946.13.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 from 6800. Resistance is now at 7000 from 6900.
- S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. It has been one month since a new all-time high.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is 0.93% from 1.47% on Wednesday’s close.
- Futures are lower this morning by -29 (-0.41%) at 6891 on the SP 500 around 6:25 a.m. EST.
- Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 3.989% from 4.05%.
Executive Summary:
- Stocks were higher last week by 1.07% on the S&P 500 but then gave it all up Monday losing -1.04% and then gained 1.59% Tuesday and Wednesday before dropping -0.54%. yesterday. We are out of the “Danger Zone” for now we thought yesterday but this morning through some doubt into that concept. With March up next week, we could break out above 7,000.
- Bitcoin is still below $70,000 from 2/5 but getting close to clearing this level with this morning’s level at $68,262.
- US increases Middle East Air Power to highest level since 2003 Iraq Invasion. Action coming on Iraq?
- There have now been three days with losses greater than -1.0% so the S&P 500 is in clustering mode with one day left in the month. Take away: the chances of another day with losses of more than -1% are moderate from high into the end of the month with the turnaround on Tuesday and Wednesday behind us.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
- Weekly – Baker Hughes Rig Count is out at 1:00 p.m. EST.
- Monthly – PPI and Construction Spending of note.
- Fed Speakers of Note today: None of note
- President Trump’s schedule:
- The President participates in a local TV interview with time to be determined in Corpus Christi, Texas.
- Heads to Corpus Christi, Texas in the morning.
- Receives an Energy Briefing at 4:05 p.m. EST.
- Makes remarks on Energy at 4:35 p.m. EST.
- Head to Palm Beach with a time to be determinded.
- 5 Year Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close: (Beats > $0.10 AND <$-0.10)
- Beats: AGD +0.87, INTU +0.47, DELL +0.36, ADSK +0.21, ZS +0.12, JANX +0.11 of note.
- Misses: MARA -3.34, CRWV -0.39, PCRX -0.33, FLUT -0.15, SG -0.11 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: None of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- BCAX – Closing of Oversubscribed Public Offering and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
- DUOT – Pricing of $65 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.
- KTOS – Prices Public Offering of Common Stock.
- XEL: Form S-3ASR – Dividend Reinvestment and Stock Purchase Plan.
- Notes Filed Or Priced:
- AEE – Pricing of Senior Notes due 2036.
- CACI – Pricing of $500 Million Offering of 6.375% Senior Notes.
- CNX – Closing of $500 Million Senior Notes Offering.
- MTDR – Prices Offering of $750 Million of Senior Notes Due 2034.
- SIRI – Prices Upsized Offering of $1,250,000,000 of 5.875% Senior Notes Due 2032.
- SUN – Pricing of Upsized Private Offering of Senior Notes.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
- Private Placement:
- ALBT – up to $9.75 Million Private Placement Priced At-the-Market under Nasdaq Rules.
- CC – Upsizing and Pricing of Private Offering of $700,000,000 of 7.875% Senior Notes Due 2034.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders:
- RYTM: Form S-3ASR – 2,395,831 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders – Mixed Shelf.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- BRSP: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
- IART: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
- MTCH: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
- SKT: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
News After The Close:
- Intuit (INTU) beat on estimates and revenues but missed on guidance.
- Autodesk (ADSK) beat on estimate and revenues and raised guidance.
- Dell Inc. (DELL) beat on estimates and revenues and raised guidance.
- Zscaler (ZS) beat on estimates and revenues and raised guidance.
- Flutter (FLUT) misses on earnings, misses on revenues and misses on guidance. Bye bye to DKNG as well.
- Dentsply (XRAY) announced a $120 million restructuring and killed the dividend.
- Netflix (NFLX) declines to raise offer for Warner Bros (WBD). It’s Paramount’s (PSKY).
- Alphabet (GOOGL) moving higher after hours on report its Google unit strikes multibillion-dollar AI chip deal with Meta, which sharpens Nvidia rivalry. (The Information)
- CoreWeave (CRWV) guides Q1 revenue below consensus.
Buybacks:
- EBS authorizes the repurchase of up to $50 million of the company’s common stock on or before March 31, 2027.
- DELL announces $10 billion increase in share repurchase authorization.
Executive Changes:
- REXR announces promotion of John Nahas to Chief Operating Officer, effective April 1.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today of note: TMUS UL UNP FRCOF GLW BAM B HLT D AONNF SVNDFEL IBKR DOV HUBB NHNCF FCNCA LH Q DOW TSN BEP MGA BIP HII RYKKF EVR AGNC CR WTS BAX EGO COLB ADC CFR YASKF TKCOF TSUSF BEPC FDX STEP BIPC CPA VIRT JRFIF AVAL NNI of note.
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.
- CNS increases quarterly cash dividend 8.1% to $0.67 per share from $0.62 per share
- WCC increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.50 per share from $0.4538 per share
- GL increases quarterly dividend to $0.33 per share from $0.27 per share
- XRAY eliminated its quarterly dividend.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)
- Futures S&P 500 -36, NASDAQ 100 -142.50, Dow Jones -352. Europe is higher in France while Asia is higher ex China. Bond yield is at 3.989% from 4.052% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $65.909 lower by -2.33% down $-1565 $68,010 lower by -1.56% down $1074 from $65,795 higher by 2.17% up $1375.
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Financials, Real Estate, Industrials, Materials and Energy were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Communication Services, Utilities and Consumer Cyclical were lower.
- One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close: None of note.
- Monday Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: DK +0.63, ANIP +0.35, CRI +0.16, NWN +0.03, UUUU +0.02 of note.
- Missed: FRO -0.11, BTSG -0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – GOLF of note.
- Mixed – None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – ONC of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: NGNE +33.2%, CAI +20.4%, AAOI +19.6%, MARA +18.6%, XYZ +18.4%, ARLO +17.4%, NATL +14.6%, PUBM +13.9%, DELL +10.9%, PRAA +10.5%, REAL +10.2%, FIGS +9.1%, PSKY +8.4%, NFLX +8.1%, RKT +6.4%, BWIN +5.8%, BLFS +5.2%, RCKT +5.1%, SOUN +4.6%, AVPT +4.1%, AGO +3.6%, XRAY +3.5%, TBI +3.3%, EVTC +3.2%, DCBO +3.2%, DEC +3%, RLAY +2.8%, ASUR +2.7%, CSTL +2.3%, GRND +2.1%, ARX +2.1%, PACS +2%, GLOB +2%, ICFI +2% of note.
- GapDown: DUOL -25.5%, XPOF -23.5%, EBS -22.7%, DNA -16.3%, FLUT -13.2%, SEER -13%, DUOT -12.7%, AMBA -11.2%, CRWV -11.1%, WLDN -10.5%, ZS -9.1%, PGNY -8.3%, SG -7.7%, ALHC -7.4%, CRI -7.4%, INOD -7.1%, PSNL -7%, LASR -6.6%, BWMX -6.4%, KTOS -6.1%, SMR -6.1%, , ESTC -6%, FIGR -6%, PBYI -5.9%, SOLV -5.4%, RKLB -5.1%, PAR -4.8%, BCO -4.2%, AUGO -4.2%, PCRX -3.5%, INTU -3.4%, OPK -3.3%, WULF -3.1%, NNI -3%, PSO -2.6%, NEXM -2.5%, TPC -2.4%, UCTT -2.3%, WBD -2%, ACA -2% of note.
Insider Action: No stocks sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. CADL see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: No stocks of note.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- WSJ Lead Story: Paramount Wins Bidding War For Warner Brothers Discovery. (WSJ)
- Markets Wrap: S&P 500 faces February loss as Europe and Asia rally. Bloomberg
- NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Trump’s Foreign Policy Resurrecting Empire. (NYT)
- Bloomberg Lead: New Credit Blowup in London Has Wall Street Chasing Billions. (Bloomberg)
- Thoughtful Money: Coming wave of distressed sellers to tank home prices worse than the GFC. (Podcast)
- Block lays off 40% of its workforce in a move to AI. (WSJ)
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: None of note
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- The President participates in a local TV interview with time to be determined in Corpus Christi, Texas.
- Heads to Corpus Christi, Texas in the morning.
- Receives an Energy Briefing at 4:05 p.m. EST.
- Makes remarks on Energy at 4:35 p.m. EST.
- Head to Palm Beach with a time to be determined.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly
- Baker Hughes Rig Count is due out at 1:00 p.m. EST.
- Monthly
- January PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 0.3% from 0.5% in December.
- November Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to fall to 0.30% from 0.50%.
- Weekly
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.
Moving Average Table: 85% from 97% of Equities are Positive, and 92% from 96% Bonds are Positive.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Baird Silicon Slopes Technology Summit
- Guggenheim Healthy Altitudes Summit
- Susquehanna Technology Conference
- Wolfe Research Real Estate Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor: BTAI INMB RCAT of note.
- Shareholder Meetings: ALCO BDL of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: LUV LYV NFLX PLTR PUBM of note.
- Downgrades: NXRT WBD of note.
