CAPIS Morning Note – 02/24/26: Stocks Rebounding. State of the Union Tonight.

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -1.04% at 6837.75 from Friday higher by 0.69% at 6909.51. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. Year to date the […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -1.04% at 6837.75 from Friday higher by 0.69% at 6909.51.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is -0.11% from 0.93% on Friday’s close.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +11 (+0.18%) at 6862 on the SP 500 around 6:25 a.m. EST.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.037% from 4.074%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks were higher last week by 1.07% on the S&P 500 but then gave it all up yesterday losing -1.04%. We are not out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • Bitcoin is still below $70,000 from 2/5.
  • Crude moves back below $70 so that was a brief pop above $70.
  • US increases Middle East Air Power to highest level since 2003 Iraq Invasion. Action coming on Iraq?
  • There have now been three days with losses greater than -1.0% so the S&P 500 is in clustering mode with four days left in the month. Take away, the chances of another day with losses of more than -1% is high into the end of the month.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly – API Petroleum Institute Data is out at 4:30 p.m. EST.
    • Monthly – Case Schiller Home Price Index at 9:00 a.m. EST and Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. EST.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Goolsbee at 8:00 a.m. EST, Bostic at 9:00 a.m. EST, Waller 9:15 a.m. EST, Cook 9;30 a.m. EST, Barkin 3:15 p.m. EST and Collins at 3:20 p.m. EST
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 9:00 a.m. EST.
    • Participates in the Annual State of the Union Luncheon at 12:30 p.m. EST.
    • Delivers The State of the Union Speech at 9:00 p.m. EST.
  •  Month Auction at 11:30 a.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: (Beats > $0.10 AND <$-0.10)

  • Beats: OVV +2.86, EVER +1.18, PRA +0.57, BBBY +0.28, MAX +0.26, VVX +0.22, BWXT +0.19, VIR +0.18, KEYS +0.17, SKWD +0.14 of note. 
  • Misses: TNC -1.22, FWRD -0.65, BMRN -0.41, ALSN -0.37, UFPI -0.35, FANG -0.25, ZD -0.14 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • BNRG: Form F-3.. Up to 4,015,875 Ordinary Shares.
    • CRML: FORM F-3 – 2,777,600 Ordinary Shares.
    • ED – Common Share Offering with a Forward Component.
    • IPWR – Pricing of $14 Million Financing of Common Stock.
    • OGE: FORM S-3ASR – 5,000,000 Shares Common Stock.
    • OGS: FORM S-3ASR – 1,144,038 SHARES Common Stock.
    • PPL – pricing of equity units offering.
    • ROC – Closing of Upsized Initial Public Offering.
    • VEEE – Closing of Public Offering.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • VRSK – Prices Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
    • TNDM Proposed Private Placement of Convertible Notes.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  •  Selling Shareholders:
    • BXP: Form F-3ASR.. 9,393,589 Class A Common Shares by Selling Shareholders.
    • WLDS: FORM F-1 – Up to 7,043,500 Ordinary Shares – Offered by the Selling Shareholder.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AAL: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • CDW: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • IVR: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • RDN: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • WHR: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.

News After The Close:

  • Paramount Skydance (PSKY) raises its offer for Warner Bros (WBD).

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • AVAV Kevin McDonnell, the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AeroVironment, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his decision to retire from his employment with the Company effective as of July 31, 2026.
  • WLKP discloses that CFO Steven Bender intends to retire.  

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: None of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.
  • VMI increases quarterly cash dividend 13% to $0.77 per share from $0.68 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 +9, NASDAQ 100 +77,  Dow Jones +122. Europe is higher ex FTSE while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.035% from 4.075% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold is lower with Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $63,336 lower by -1.43% down $945 from $66,348 lower by down $-1064 on Friday.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Materials, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Utilities were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Financials, Consumer Cyclicals, Communication Services and Industrials were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: BEAM +3.34, DDS +1.56, WLK +1.16, BNS +0.62, HD +0.19, FWRG +0.17, IMOS +0.12, +AMAT +0.10 of note.
  • Missed: AHCO -1.11, ARVN -0.54, CECO -0.33, FERG -0.29, KNSA -0.16 of note.
  • Flat: DEA of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – BRSL XMTR  of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – FWRG PLNT CECO of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: VIR +66.6%, MYGN +22.6%, KEYS +15.1%, SGHC +15%, MAX +13.8%, SIBN +10.2%, BWXT +8.8%, CLVT +8.3%, ADEA +8%, TARS +7.1%, FWRD +6.8%, PLOW +5.5%, ACVA +5.4%, GLPG +4.9%, AESI +4.5%, INR +4.3%, IIPR +4%, BNC +3.1%, VVX +3.1%, HD +3%, BBBY +2.6%, OVV +2.3%, HLX +2.3%, NTRA +2.2%, of note.
  • GapDown: TARA -13.2%, MGNX -12.6%, ZD -11.8%, UCTT -9.7%, PAY -8.9%, TNC -7.8%, WHR -7.6%, TNDM -7.3%, HIMS -7%, FMS -6.7%, KWR -5.1%, PRIM -4.9%, KTOS -4.6%, AS -4%, FANG -3.3%, UFPI -3%, CYD -3%, NVO -2.6%, BMRN -2.6%, CNNE -2.5%, AWI -2.5%, ALSN -2.4%  of note.

Insider Action: LPX sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. Nonesee Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: CNDT of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Meta and AMD Agree to AI Chip Deal Worth More Than $100 Billion. (WSJ)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks Mount Cautious Recovery . Bloomberg
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored. (NYT)
  • Bloomberg Lead: Trumps 10% Levy Takes Effect As US Rebuilds Tariff Wall. (Bloomberg)
  • Thoughtful Money: Setup For A Rally In Stocks?  (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: 6 see up top of note
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 9:00 a.m. EST.
    • Participates in the Annual State of the Union Luncheon at 12:30 p.m. EST.
    • Delivers The State of the Union Speech at 9:00 p.m. EST..
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • API Petroleum Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EST.
    •  Monthly
      • December Case Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EST and expected to stay at 1.4%.
      • February Consumer Confidence are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 86 from 84.50.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  30% from 77% of Equities are Positive, and 88% from 88% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BMO Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conf
  • Top Analyst, Investor: None of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • A.G.P. Digital Asset Innovation Summit

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: FOXA GPC VIR of note.
  • Downgrades: CMCSA GOSS KRC of note.