CAPIS Morning Note – 02/17/26: Stocks Start Week Lower

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 0.05% at 6836.17 from Thursday lower by -1.57% at 6832.76. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26. Year to date the […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 0.05% at 6836.17 from Thursday lower by -1.57% at 6832.76.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on 1/27/26.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is lower by -0.14% from -0.19% on Thursday’s close.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -27 (-0.37%) at 6823.50 on the SP 500 around 6:25 a.m. EST.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.03% from 4.117%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks were lower last week by -1.39% on the S&P 500. So we are not out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • Bitcoin is still below $70,000 from 2/5.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly – API Petroleum Institute Data
    • Monthly –Empire State Manufacturing and NAHB Housing Market Index.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today:  Barr at 12:45 p.m. EST and Daly at 2:30 p.m. EST
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Ambassador Credentialing at 2:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:00 p.m. EST.
  • 3 & 6 Month Treasury Auction at 11:30 a.m. EST.
  • 1 Year Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: (Beats > $0.05)

  • Beats: None of note. 
  • Misses: EXAS -0.34 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • CRIS: Form S-3.. 107,706,700 Shares.
    • FOA: Form S-3.. 2,326,190 Shares of Class A Common Stock underlying Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Stock.
    • GPUS – “At-the-Market” Offering of Preferred Stock.
    • NKTR – Closing of $460 Million Public Offering Including Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • OTIS: Form S-3ASR – 2020 LONG-TERM INCENTIVE PLAN.
    • PASW: Form F-1.. Up to 13,611,800 Ordinary Shares.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • COR Closes $3.0 Billion Senior Notes Offering.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  •  None of note.Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AMGN: Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf.
    • BWA: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • NVCT: FORM S-3 – $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.

News After The Close:

  • JNJ confirms that a jury in the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas has found JJNJ responsible for the company’s baby powder products contributing to the death of a Pennsylvania woman.
  •  LOW is eliminating about 600 corporate and support roles.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • NOC elects Admiral Christopher Grady, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to its board of directors.
  • ELF  appoints Matthew Farrell, former CEO of Church & Dwight (CHD), to its Board of Directors. 

Buybacks:

  • BMI increases its share repurchase authorization by $75 million bringing the total share repurchase authorization to $150 million.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note:  None of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: COP AFL MPC ED CTSH GIB WMG ARMK FCFS POWI MKTX HRI LSTR BSM ENR of note.
  • VMC increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.52 per share from $0.49 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 -26, NASDAQ 100 -188 Dow Jones -96 . Europe is higher while Asia is mixed Bond yield is at 4.03% from 4.11% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $67,772 lower by -0.64% lower by $436 from $67,065 higher by 2.46% up $1602.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors:   Utilities, Materials, Real Estate, Energy and Industrials were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Technology and Financials were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: HRI +0.20, LDOS +0.17, CNH +0.08, LPX +0.05, MDT +0.02 and IDYA +0.01 of note.
  • Missed: BLDR-0.13,  POR -0.10 ALLE -0.05, WAY -0.03 of note.
  • Flat: of note.
  • Still to Report: ATMU CIGI DCH ENB MRNA SXT WEN of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – CNH of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp:  ZIM +35.1%, RYI +8.6%, ENLT +7.1%, NPO +5.2%, BNC +4.4%, NESR +4%, NWG +3.6%, LAD +3.2%, GSK +2.6%, SON +2.4%, ESLT +2%of note.
  • GapDown:  WHG -7.5%, CMPS -7.2%, ALLE -3.6%, LDOS -3.5%, IHG -3.2%, WPM -2.7% of note.

Insider Action: AXR ARE see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. QDEL SRZN PSNL NDAQ see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Warner Reopens Talks with Paramount. (WSJ)
  • Markets Wrap: US Futures Slide.  Bloomberg
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Hyatt’s Tom Pritzker Steps Down. (NYT)
  • Bloomberg Lead: Jesse Jackson Dies at 84. (Bloomberg)
  • Thoughtful Money: Economic Bull Turns Cautious. (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today: 2
    • Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speaks at 12:45 p.m. EST.
    • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks at 2:30 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Ambassador Credentialing at 2:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:00 p.m. EST.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • API Petroleum Institute Data due out at 4:30 p.m. EST.
    •  Monthly
      • February Empire State Manufacturing is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 7.1% from 7.7% in January.
      • February NAHB Housing Market Index are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to come in as 38 from 37.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  43% from 36% of Equities are Positive, and 96% from 84% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Barclay’s Industrial Select Conference
    • Citi Global Industrial Tech and Mobility Conference
    • Goldman Sachs India New Age Tech Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor:  COYA RDWR SON VMET of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings:  PURE of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • CAGNY
    • NAHB International Builders’ Show

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: ALB CVX DLTR LBRT LUV MRSH SHOP of note.
  • Downgrades: DG of note.