CAPIS Morning Note – 02/12/26: Stocks Bounce After Flat Wednesday

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.00% at 6941.47 from Tuesday lower by -0.33% at 6941.81. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 from 6700. Resistance is now at 7000 from 6800. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Tuesday, 1/27/26. Year to date […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.00% at 6941.47 from Tuesday lower by -0.33% at 6941.81.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 from 6700. Resistance is now at 7000 from 6800.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Tuesday, 1/27/26.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is higher by 1.41% from 1.41% on Tuesday’s close.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +21.25 (+0.30%) at 6981.75 on the SP 500 around 6:25 a.m. EST.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.177% from 4.137%.

Executive Summary:

  • This is another big earnings week. Volatility continues with positive moves and big drops. Notables after the close include .
  • Stocks rallied hard on Friday and Monday before stalling out the last two days. So we may not be out of the “Danger Zone”. 
  • Bitcoin is still below $70,000 from last Thursday.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly –  Jobelss Claims and Natural Gas Inventories.
    • Monthly – Existing Home Sales.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Logan at 7:00 p.m., Miran at 7:05 p.m. EST
  • 30 Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EST.
    • Makes an Announcement with the Administrator of the EPA at 1:30 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EST and 5:30 p.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: (Beats > $0.10)

  • Beats: NBR +2.04, INSP +0.97, FAF +0.61, PRI +0.45, MFC +0.35, APP +0.29, MSI +0.24, MH +0.18, AR +0.12, SLF +0.12 of note. 
  • Misses: VKTX -0.48, QTWO -0.30, EQIX -0.14, AM -0.14. ALB -0.11 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • BRTX – Pricing of $5.0 Million Public Offering.
    • HCWB: Form S-1.. Up to $10,000,000, consisting of: Up to 9,523,810 Shares of Common Stock.
    • NCI –  Closing of Approximately US$8.1 Million Public Offering of Class A Ordinary Shares.
    • NKTR – Pricing of Upsized $400 Million Public Offering.
    • NTST Launch of Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • SOPA – Pricing of $3.0 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • UOKA Closing of Upsized $6.0 Million Public Offering.
    • WRN: Form F-10 Filed – Offering.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
    • FVCB -, Completion of $25 Million Senior Notes Offering.
    • JNJ: Form S-3ASR – debt securities.
    • MRSH Pricing of $600 Million Senior Notes Offering.
    • RXO – Prices $400 Million Senior Notes Offering.
    • TMUS – Proposed Public Offering of Euro-Denominated Senior Notes.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced:
    • ASTS Proposed Repurchases of up to $300.0 Million Convertible Senior Notes to be Funded By Concurrent Registered Direct Offerings of Class A Common Stock.
    • NRGV – Upsize and Pricing of $140 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
  • Private Placement:
    • ASTS Proposed Private Offering of $1.0 Billion of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2036.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  •  None of note.Selling Shareholders: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CMS: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
    • ENTA: Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • GLUE: S-3ASR Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • ZSPC: Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close:

  • McDonald’s (MCD) beat on earnings and revenues as the value meal is working.
  • Cisco (CSCO) beat on earnings and revenues but offered mixed earnings guidance, stock is lower by -7% in pre-market.
  • President Trump at White House event says he will direct Department of Energy to issue funds to coal plants in KY, NC, WV, and OH.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • PTLO announces the appointment of Brett Patterson as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective Monday, February 23, 2026

Buybacks:

  • EQH announces additional $1 billion share repurchase authorization.
  • CGNX approves a $500 million increase to its existing share repurchase authorization.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: XOM TJX RMD DCI TTEK STBA FMBH of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.
  • EQIX increases quarterly cash dividend to $5.16/share from $4.69/share 
  • GPI increases quarterly cash dividend 10% to $0.55/share from $0.50/share 
  • FE increases quarterly dividend 4.5% to $0.465/share from $0.445/share
  • MFC  increases quarterly cash dividend 10.2% to $0.485/share from $0.44/share

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 +22, NASDAQ 100 +72, Dow Jones +133. Europe is higher while Asia is mixed. Bond yield is at 4.177% from 4.13% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $67,925 higher by 0.75% up $515.70 from $67,217 lower by -2.30% down by $-1,580 on Wednesday.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors:   Energy, Consumer Defensive, Materials, Utilities and Industrials were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Financials, Communication Services, Real Estate and Consumer Cyclical were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: ($10 billion Market Cap and up)

  • Tomorrow Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: (> $0.10)

  • Beat: CHKP +0.64, CROX +0.38, LNC+0.31, FTS +0.28, GVA +0.19 of note.
  • Missed: BTDR -0.60, H -0.14, TRIP -0.11, BRKR -0.06 of note.
  • Flat: BP of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning –  of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning –  of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp:  FSLY +40.9%, NVCR +23.9%, CGNX +23.3%, MH +20.7%, ATNI +20.2%, PRCH +20.2%, LNC +11.7%, VKTX +11.6%, EQIX +9.9%, ZBRA +9.3%, WST +8.1%, HUBS +6.1%, WTS +5.5%, CXW +5.4%, BTU +5.2%, LXP +5.1%, MMS +4.6%, AR +4.2%, VCTR +3.9%, PRI +3.8%, WRD +3.4%, MELI +3.2%, FRMI +3.2%, VNT +3.2%, CNR +3.1%, PAG +2.8%, BUD +2.7%, PTLO +2.6%, METC +2.4%, HCC +2.4%, ARLP +2%, CW +2%of note.
  • GapDown:  CLR -30.1%, NRGV -17.5%, MICC -15.7%, ROL -15.3%, INSP -15.3%, PAYC -9.1%, ASTS -8.8%, QS -7.8%, CSCO -7.4%, TYL -7.2%, VNDA -7.1%, SNY -6.5%, FBRT -6.4%, NBR -6.3%, CHKP -5.5%, APP -5.3%, ALMU -4.9%, QTWO -4.8%, HIMX -4.2%, BMM -3.9%, NBIX -3.8%, WRN -3.7%, CPA -3.7%, GEO -3.7%, DAR -3%, PPC -2.7%, ETR -2.4%, ALB -2.3%, NE -2.1%, BTI -2.1%, ENTA -2% of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history:

 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Healthcare Jobs Have Become The Engine of America’s Labor Market. (WSJ)
  • Markets Wrap:  Stocks gain and dollar slip in front of jobs data.  Bloomberg
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Amateur Gamblers Are Beating Wall Street PhDs. (NYT)
  • Bloomberg Lead: Trump Rebuked Over Canadian Trade Tariffs. (Bloomberg)
  • Thoughtful Money: Markets Getting Better Or Worse?  (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Fed Speakers:
      • Federal Reserve Dallas President Logan speaks at 7:00 p.m. EST.
      • Federal Reserve Governor Miran speaks at 7:05 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EST.
    • Makes an Announcement with the Administrator of the EPA at 1:30 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 3:00 p.m. EST and 5:30 p.m. EST.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.
      • Natural Gas Inventories out at 10:30 a.m. EST.
    •  Monthly
      • January Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 4.21 million from 4.35 million.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  80% from 80% of Equities are Positive, and 92% from 96% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Financial Services Conference
    • BMO Auto Finance Forum
    • Guggenheim Emerging Outlook: Biotech Summit
    • Noble Capital Markets Equity Investor Conference
    • Piper Sandler Novel Targets in Immunology Symposium
    • TD Cowen Aerospace & Defense Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: ASC BC BCTX CDNA DDOG DOC FDX of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: CRNC LSH SDCH SLP of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • Precious Metals & Critical Minerals Investor Conference

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: BWA CAO GCMG SHOP of note.
  • Downgrades: KHC VVV  of note.