CAPIS Morning Note – 02/10/26: Retail Sales Out At 8:30 a.m. EST, Stocks Up Modestly

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.47% at 6964.82 from Friday higher by 1.97% at 6932.30. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 from 6700. Resistance is now at 7000 from 6800. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Tuesday, 1/27/26. Year to date […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.47% at 6964.82 from Friday higher by 1.97% at 6932.30.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 from 6700. Resistance is now at 7000 from 6800.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Tuesday, 1/27/26.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is higher by 1.74% from 1.27% on Thursday’s close.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +3.25 (+0.05%) at 6987 on the SP 500 around 6:20 a.m. EST.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.18% from 4.20%.

Executive Summary:

  • This is another big earnings week. Volatility continues with positive moves and big drops.
  • Stocks rallied hard on Friday and yesterday. So we may be out of the “Danger Zone”.
  • Bitcoin is still below $70,000 from last Thursday.
  • Another Government Shutdown this upcoming weekend over Department of Homeland Security and its funding as its actions have upset Democrats?

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly –  API Petroleum Institute Data.
    • Monthly – Retail Sales, Import/Export Data and Factory Orders.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Hammack at 12:30 p.m., Logan 1:00 p.m.
  • 3 Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Signing Time at 4:30 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a policy meeting at 5:30 p.m. EST.
    • Has a private dinner at 7:00 p.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: (Beats > $0.05)

  • Beats: MEDP +0.48, CINF +0.47, ACGL +0.39, AMKR +0.25, SSD +0.13, ACM +0.12, CRBG +0.11, NTB +0.07, ICHR +0.07, UPWK +0.05 of note. 
  • Misses: GT -0.10, PFG -0.04, VNO -0.02, UDR -0.02. KRC -0.02, MTW -0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • AEON: FORM S-3 – Up to 51,292,953 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • AVX: Form S-3.. Up to 4,792,533 Common Shares.
    • BHAT: Form F-1.. 10,666,666 Units, Each Unit Consisting of One Ordinary Share or One Pre-funded Warrant to Purchase One Ordinary Share and One Warrant to Purchase One Ordinary Share.
    • BRTX: Form S-1.. Up to 9,708,738 Units.
    • GAIN – Announces Notes Offering.
    • NGHT: Form S-1.. 150,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • PHGE: FORM S-3 – 5,310,933 Shares of Common Stock (and including up to 261,933 Dividend Shares).
    • WRAP: Form S-3.. 1,700,000 Shares of Common Stock 2,500,000 shares of Common Stock Underlying Warrants.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced:
      • PFGC – Pricing of Offering of $1.06 billion of 5.625% Senior Notes due 2034.
      • TMO – Prices Offering of USD-Denominated Senior Notes.
      • GOOGL to tap bond market for $20 billion not $15 billion.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • VNRX: Form S-3.. 17,968,090 Shares of Common Stock Offered by Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BEAT: Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.

News After The Close:

  • CSX announces $670 million locomotive fleet upgrade with Wabtec (WAB).
  • Credo Technology (CRDO) guides JanQ and AprQ revenue well above consensus.
  • RING to join Small Cap Index.
  • RTX awarded a $230 million Navy contract.
  • FONR, RICK to Delay 10-Q.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • WRBY appoints Adrian Mitchell as Chief Financial Officer, effective February 10.

Buybacks: None of note

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: V ASML IBM SCCO AEP AWK LEVI DLB AROC MGY MWA FIBK FBK ARCB GABC RES of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.
  • TROW  increases quarterly cash dividend 2.36% to $1.30 per share from $1.27 per share  increases quarterly cash dividend 2.36% to $1.30 per share from $1.27 per share

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 +9.50, NASDAQ 100 +39, Dow Jones +8. Europe is higher ex FTSE while Asia is higher EX aUSTRALIA. Bond yield is at 4.18% from 4.228% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $68,682 lower by -2.91% down $-2059 from $69,016 lower by -2.70% down $1902 on Monday.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Materials, Technology, Energy and Communications were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  Consumer Defensive, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical and Financials were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: ($5 billion Market Cap and up)

  • Tomorrow Before The Open: ($5 billion Market Cap and up)

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: (> $0.05)

  • Beat: SPOT +1.69, HAS +0.57, CVS +0.09, FISV +0.09, DGX +0.05 of note.
  • Missed: WCC -0.49, OSCR -0.35, RACE -0.32, INCY -0.11, MAR -0.02, AXTA -0.01 of note.
  • Flat: BP of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – DGX ACM ICHR of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – SPOT INMD ZBH PFG of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: ICHR +18.3%, CRDO +17.3%, SPOT +13.9%, CCO +8.2%, PHG +7.1%, YMT +6.7%, UTL +5.9%, RLGT +5.4%, TII +4.6%, CMCO +4.5%, SSD +4.5%, ACM +4.2%, AMKR +3.8%, PSNL +3.4%, SLP +3%, RNG +2.8%, TSM +2.8%, CCSI +2.7%, LUXE +2.7%, CRBG +2.6%, DD +2.5%, HGTY +2%, PSN +2%, AZN +2%, KT +2%  of note.
  • GapDown:  UPWK -25.3%, RGNX -12.6%, AMTM -11.3%, GTM -10.7%, GT -7.8%, ASB -7.6%, DC -7%, PAL -6.4%, WCC -6.2%, MEDP -4.8%, ON -4.7%, BP -4.1%, VNO -3.8%, LTM -2.9%, MTW -2.5% of note.

Insider Action: KMB sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. ADM sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history:

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Trump to Repeal Landmark Climate Change Finding in Huge Regulatory Rollback. (WSJ)
  • Markets Wrap:  Stock Rally pauses as traders await economic data.  Bloomberg
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Pilots and Flight Attendants Criticize American Airlines Performance. (NYT)
  • Bloomberg Lead:  Alphabet Seeks $94 billion From Sale of Pound and Swiss Franc Bond Sales . (Bloomberg)
  • Thoughtful Money: The Coming Great Boom.  (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Fed Speakers:
      • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Hammack speaks at 12:30 p.m. EST.
      • Federal Reserve Dallas President Logan speaks at 1:00 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Signing Time at 4:30 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a policy meeting at 5:30 p.m. EST.
    • Has a private dinner at 7:00 p.m. EST.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • API Petroleum Institute Data.
    •  Monthly
      • December Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 0.4% from 0.6% in November.
      • December Import/Export Prices are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.
      • November Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 0.5% from -1.30%.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO) agrees to be acquired by Mubadala Capital, in partnership with TWG Global, for $6.2 Billion 

Moving Average Table:  90% from 76% of Equities are Positive, and 68% from 68% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Financial Services Conference
    • BTIG MedTech Digital Health Life Science & Diagnostic Tools Conference
    • DA Davidson CEO Forum
    • Evercore Travel & Transport Conference
    • Stifel 2026 Transportation & Logistics Conference
    • UBS Financial Services Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: CRMD DVAX PCAR  of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings:  CSPI IIIN ROK  of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • CNBC Digital Finance Forum
    • Precious Metals & Critical Minerals Investor Conference

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: BKNG FLNC PLTR SHOP SNAP TTWO VST  of note.
  • Downgrades: UAA of note.