CAPIS Morning Note – 02/09/26: Stocks Modestly Lower, Seahawks Win Superbowl as Walker Named MVP

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 1.97% at 6932.30 from Thursday lower by -1.23% at 6798.40. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 from 6700. Resistance is now at 7000 from 6800. S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Tuesday, 1/27/26. Year to date […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Friday higher by 1.97% at 6932.30 from Thursday lower by -1.23% at 6798.40.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 from 6700. Resistance is now at 7000 from 6800.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Tuesday, 1/27/26.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is higher by 1.27% from -0.69% on Thursday’s close.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -18.75 (-0.29%) at 6934 on the SP 500 around 6:30 a.m. EST.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.232% from 4.20%.

Executive Summary:

  • Last week we noted that is was, “Highly unlikely that there was a cut with strong Q3 GDP and the Atlanta Fed’s forecast of 5.4% Q4 GDP”. That favored a selloff and yesterday we fell by -1.23%, so extended downside action looks like it may have ended with the Friday rebound despite this comment from Goldman’s trading desk over the weekend.

  • This is another big earnings week. Volatility continues with positive moves and big drops.
  • Stocks rallied hard on Friday. So we may be out of the “Danger Zone”.
  • Bitcoin is still below $70,000 from Thursday.
  • Another Government Shutdown next weekend over Department of Homeland Security?

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly –  None of note.
    • Monthly – None of note.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: 3: Waller at 1:30 p.m., Miran 2:30 p.m. and 5:00p.m as well as Bostic 3:15 p.m.
  • 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Returned home late from Palm Beach this morning
    • Has a television interview at 3:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a policy meeting at 5:00 p.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: (Beats > $0.10)

  • Beats: None of note. 
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • CGC files for 18,705,578 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • NTHI files for 2,950,498 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • HAL files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • SFST files for $125 million mixed securities shelf offering.

News After The Close:

  • CVS Health (CVS)  announces that its approximately 9,000 community pharmacies are accepting TrumpRx discount cards.
  • U.S. targets March for Ukraine peace deal. (Reuters)
  • Intel (INTC) to co-lead investment in AI chip startup SambaNova.
  • Hims & Hers (HIMS) lowers after hours as FDA says it intends to take action against non-FDA-approved GLP-1 drugs.
  • Weight Watchers International (WW) has integrated GLP-1 drugs into its weight management services and with HIMS ruling a plus for them.
  • NOC awarded a $198 million US Navy order.
  • MBIN to join S&P SmallCap 600.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News: None of note.

Buybacks: None of note

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: BX AMP ETR GLP LVS NMM OHI AAPL GROW MPLX PZZA of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 -11.50, NASDAQ 100 -82.50, Dow Jones -47. Europe is higher ex FTSE while Asia is higher. Bond yield is at 4.228% from 4.20% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $69,016 lower by -2.70% down $1902 from $66,185 higher by 4.17% up $2628.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: All others ex Communications were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  Communication Services were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: PGY+0.46, APO+0.43, BIIB +0.36, CURB +0.23, CLF +0.19, MNDY +0.12, BDX +0.10, DT +0.03, SBH +0.02 and WAT +0.02
  • Missed: CNA-0.13, KD -0.08 of note.
  • Flat: EPC
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – CURB DT of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – EPC MNDY BDX of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: DT +10.6%, WW +9.6%, CNA +8.5%, STM +6.7%, NVO +6.4%, ABUS +3.9%, CURB +2.9%, APO +2.4%  of note.
  • GapDown: HIMS -14.9%, NWG -6%, EPC -4%, ELLO -3.7%, CLF -3.2%, BDX -2.9%, AXG -2.8%, SFST -2.8% of note.

Insider Action: HWKN sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. SONO RUM see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history:

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Stock’s Sharp Rebound Only Making Investors More Nervous. (WSJ)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks slip as caution lingers. Bloomberg
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Why the NFL Booked Bad Bunny. (NYT)
  • Bloomberg Lead:  Novo Nordisk Suing Hims & Hers over Obesity Drug Copycats. (Bloomberg)
  • Thoughtful Money:  Breakout or Breakdown? (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Fed Speakers:
      • Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks at 1:30 p.m. EST.
      • Federal Reserve Governor Miran speaks at 2:30 p.m. EST and 5:00 p.m. EST.
      • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Bostic speaks at 3:15 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Returned from Palm Beach this morning.
    • Has a television interview at 3:00 p.m. EST.
    • Participates in a Policy Meeting at 5:00 p.m. EST.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • None of note.
    •  Monthly
      • None of note.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  76% from 40% of Equities are Positive, and 68% from 25% Bonds are Negative.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Cantor Fitzgerald: Adani Annual Conference
    • DA Davidson CEO Forum
    • Oppenheimer Healthcare Winter Summit
    • UBS Financial Services Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor:  CIEN ARWR ADT of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings:  GLTO MWA TRUG of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: ARES DOC MDT RBLX VTRS  of note.
  • Downgrades: None of note.