CAPIS Morning Note – 02/06/23: Friday’s Selloff Continues As We Start A New Week.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -1.36% at 4136.48 from  Thursday higher by 1.47% at 4179.76.  The overnight high of 4143 was hit at 7:00 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4106.25 at 5:50 a.m. EST, a range of ~37 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -1.36% at 4136.48 from  Thursday higher by 1.47% at 4179.76.  The overnight high of 4143 was hit at 7:00 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4106.25 at 5:50 a.m. EST, a range of ~37 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -30.75 points which is -0.74%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.



Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Panera (See Rags and Mags WSJ story)
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Forest Road Acquisition Corp. II (FRXB) mutually agrees to terminate previously announced business combination with Hyperloop Transportation.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • KMF: Prices Private Placement of $40 Million of Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CMRA: Filed Form S-1.. 7,218,726 Shares of Common Stock.
    • ELYS: Filed Form RW.
    • HPCO: Filed Form S-1.. 4,729,729 Shares of Common Stock.
    • JZXN: Filed Form RW.
    • KPRX: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 1,052,798 Shares of Common Stock.
    • SABS: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 7,363,377 Shares of Common Stock Up to 7,363,377 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Warrants.
    • TZOO: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 3,410,000 Shares Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering:
    • DRRX: $10 Million Registered Direct Offering of Common Stock and Warrants.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • HGTY: Filed Form S-3..Up to 5,438,244 Shares of Class A Common Stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • LILM: Filed Form F-3.. Up to 3,101,523 Class A Shares offering by selling shareholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • IOBT: Filed Form S-3. $250 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • VAPO: Filed Form S-3 .. $200 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • FFIE: Announces $135 Million in Convertible Secured Notes Financing Commitments.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: CVNA 84.3%, TWOU 48.5%, JWN 42.3%, LPSN 36.4%, EGHT 28.8%, ALGN 27.5%, RPD 27.0%, CONN 24.7%, SMG 23.7%, ELF 22.4%, OI 22.2%, GSHD 21.6%, ENVA 21.1%, LPG 19.6%, TBK 19.5%.
    • Trading Down: HBI -19.6%, ACRS -19.4%, SLM -13.8%, ARRY -13.0%, EAF -12.7%, COP -12.6%, BPT -12.4%, HES -12.0%, NIO -11.9%, ESPR -11.5%, RCUS -11.4%, GPRK -11.4%, MPC -10.9%, SQQQ -10.4%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • A jury rejected an investor claims that Elon Musk broke securities laws when he tweeted about taking Tesla (TSLA) private.
    • Bank of America (BAC) trims CEO Moynihan’s pay by about 6% to $30 million. (MarketWatch)
    • Restoration Hardware (RH) announces restatement for three prior quarters; co also sees full year revs coming in at the lower end of prior guidance.
    • ASTC $100 million NASA contract with SpaceX.
    • Surmodics (SRDX) announces 13% workforce reduction.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week: META, GM, XOM, PTON, INTC, SBUX, JWN  (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: The Fed Slows Down (NYT)
    • U.S. Shoots Down Suspected Chinese Spy Balloon, Recovery Under Way. (WSJ)
    • Banks Borrow Unsecured Cash at Record Clip While Deposits Flee. (WSJ)
    • Disney (DIS) World Workers Reject Contract Offer. (NYTimes)
    • Tesla (TSLA) raises the price of US Model Y Long Range by $2,000 to $54,990, Performance by $1,000 to $57,990. (CNBC)
    • Nestle To Hike Food Prices Further In 2023, says CEO.
    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: PFE, LUV, BAC, WFC, GS, FITB, MTB, GOOG of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes:
      • Agree Realty (ADC) to replace Store Capital (STOR) in S&P 400 at open on 2/6
    • Brixmor Property (BRX) announces that Sheryl Crosland will replace John Schreiber as chair of the Board.
    • Carlyle (CG) names Harvey Schwartz CEO, former President at Goldman Sachs.
    • Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) Announces Appointment of Jessica Powell to Board of Directors . (see Dividends)
    • UFP Industries (UFPI) Chairman William G Currie to retire; CEO Matthew J Missad named Chairman.
    • Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) announces that the Company has appointed Scott Myers as President and Chief Executive Officer, and a member of the Board of Directors.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Align Tech (ALGN) entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement on Feb 3 to repurchase $250 million common stock.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • CNA Financial (CNA) Regular Quarterly Dividend Increased 5% To $0.42 Per Share Special Dividend Of $1.20 Per Share.
    • CORR Will Suspend Dividend Payments.
    • Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX) Announces an Increase in Quarterly Cash Dividend.
    • Ault Alliance (NILE) Announces the Dividend of Shares of TurnOnGreen and Giga-tronics to Its Stockholders Will Proceed.
    • PriceSmart (PSMT) Announces 7.0% Increase to Semi-Annual Dividend.
    • Public Storage (PSA) Increases Quarterly Common Dividend to $3.00 per share, a 50% increase..

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -25, Dow Jones -156,  NASDAQ -97, and Russell 2000 -13. (as of 7:55 a.m. EST).  Asia is lower ex the Nikkei and European markets are trading lower. VIX Futures are at 19.65 from 19.50 Friday.  Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.6028% from 3.394% Friday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $22,857 from $23,504 Friday, lower by  -0.15%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Utilities, Real Estate, Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Communication Services, Technology, Real Estate Financial  of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Basic Materials, Energy, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, and Technology of note.

Stocks declined to end a busy week after the monthly jobs report beat expectations, stoking fears that interest rate increases may continue longer than expected.  The Nasdaq Composite fell 193.86 points, or 1.6%, to 12006.95 as growth stocks led markets lower. The S&P 500 fell 43.28 points, or 1%, to 4136.48. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 127.93 points, or 0.4%, to 33926.01.  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq still notched gains for the week, gaining 1.6% and 3.3%, respectively.  Stocks shot higher this week before retreating Friday, with investors parsing through a wave of central-bank decisions, corporate earnings and economic data over the past several days. Friday brought fresh information on U.S. hiring, giving investors more clues on how well the labor market is holding up as the economy slows elsewhere.  (WSJ)

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Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: 

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: AMG +0.24, IDXX +0.15, TKR +0.13, CNA +0.07 of note.
  • Flat: CMI of note.
  • Misses: TSN (0.52), NBIX (0.20), ENR (0.04) of note.
  • Still to Report: ON of note.


  • Positive Guidance: TKR of note.
  • Negative Guidance: RH, PLCE of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: FFIE +31%, CTLT +21%, LSI +12% of note.
  • Gap Down: PLCE -9%, NEM -5%, CAN -5%, RH -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: TSN PYPL PLCE TMUS LYFT DELL SPOT ENR (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  US Moves To Recover Chinese Balloon While Weighing Retaliation. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Twin Earthquakes Kill More Than 1,000 in Turkey and Syria. (Bloomberg)
  • Chinese move from contrite to confrontational over US balloon. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks futures slide to start the week with more earnings and a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. (CNBC)
  • Dell Inc (DELL) to cut 6,500 jobs Hit by Plunging PC Sales. (Bloomberg)
  • Treasury yields rise from Friday as economic strength now questioned. (CNBC)
  • Panera is looking to go public this year along with other restaurant stocks. (WSJ)
  • Danaher (DHR) is looking to potentially bid for Catalent (CTLT) which is up 21% this morning. (MarketWatch)
  • Tyson Foods (TSN) misses estimates as lower beef prices hit the company. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score takes a slight step back to 97% from 100% as the Dow pulls back below the 5 day.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:30 a.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 12:00 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, 2:15 p.m. EST


  • Investor Movement Index 12:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Fanhua (FANH) Signs Definitive Agreement To Acquire Zhongji Shi’An Insurance Agency.
  • Marqeta (MQ) Completes Acquisition of Power Finance, Inc.
  • Newmont (NEM) submits proposal to acquire Newcrest Mining.
  • PSA $11 Billion Unsolicited Offer For Life Storage (LSI).
  • SLB Completes Acquisition of Gyrodata Incorporated.
  • Traxys Group (CG) to be Acquired by Traxys Management, Optiver and Investors.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • KeyBanc Hosted Company Meetings at AHR Expo
    • Stifel Biotech Ski Summit
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: AWH, CPTK, SHIP
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AVD
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: