Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Wednesday lower by -0.51% at 6882.79 from Tuesday lower by -0.84% at 6917.81.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 6800 from 6900. Resistance is now at 6900 from 7000.
- S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Tuesday, 1/27/26.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is higher by 0.54% from 1.06% on yesterday’s close.
- Futures are higher this morning by +2.75 (+0.06%) at 6909 on the SP 500 around 6:00 a.m. EST.
- Bond Market is unchanged today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.282%.
Executive Summary:
- Last week we noted that is was, “Highly unlikely that there was a cut with strong Q3 GDP and the Atlanta Fed’s forecast of 5.4% Q4 GDP”. That favored a selloff and yesterday we fell by 0.51% so extended downside action is still a viable threat.
- This is another big earnings week. Volatility continues with positive moves in SLAB, ENPH, APPS and SMCI while there were big drops in AMD, NVO and CMG.
- Stocks sold off hard again on Wednesday but recovered about 25% of their losses by the close, just like Tuesday. So we are still in the Danger Zone.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) hints at memory supply problems.
- Bitcoin breaks $70,000.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
- Weekly – Jobless Claims and Natural Gas Inventories of note.
- Monthly – December JOLTS are out at 10:00 a.m. EST.
- Fed Speakers of Note today: Fed Atlanta President Bostic (10:50 a.m. EST)
- President Trump’s schedule:
- Participates in the National Prayer Breakfast at 8:30
- Participates in a Policy Meeting at 4:00 p.m. EST.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close: (Beats > $0.10)
- Beats: ALL+4.48, CB +0.75, AMSC +2.66, ALGT +0.71, MUSA +0.67, ELF +0.52, PTC+0.36, ALGN +0.32, MET +0.24, GOOG +0.19 and QCOM+0.11 of note.
- Misses: KMPR -0.62, NOV -1.18, HP -0.24, AFL -0.12, ORLY -0.02, EQH -0.02, ESS -0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: None of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
- DRCT: Form S-1.. 1,818,181 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
- EIKN – Pricing of Upsized Initial Public Offering.
- USAU: Form S-1.. 2,883,238 Shares Common Stock.
- XELB: Form S-1..13,628,865 Shares of Common Stock.
- Notes Filed Or Priced:
- GEV Closing of $2.6 Billion Public Offering of Senior Notes.
- HHH – Prices Offering of Senior Notes.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders:
- FLOC: Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf — Up to 57,530,845 Shares of Class A Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
- NUAI: Form S-3.. 8,560,000 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholder.
- Private Placements: None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- FLOC: Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf — Up to 57,530,845 Shares of Class A Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
- MAZE: Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
- MDLZ: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
News After The Close:
- Qualcomm (QCOM) guides lower on memory supply issues.
- Google (GOOGL) beats on earnings and revenues. Off -3%.
- Costco (COST) reports January Same Store Sales +6.4%.
- Barron’s is cautious on – WMT, COST, PG, PEP, KO, NWL, MNST, BRBR, THS.
- Shares of Lumentum (LITE), Broadcom (AVGO), and Celestica (CLS) are moving sharply higher in after-hours trading because Alphabet’s (GOOG/GOOGL) massive $175–$185 billion CapEx guidance for FY26 signals an unprecedented wave of spending on AI infrastructure and networking hardware.
- NOC awarded a $249 million US Air Force contract.
- LMT awarded a $249 million Navy contract.
- U.S. weighs allowing ByteDance to purchase Nvidia (NVDA) H200 chips as conditions remain unresolved.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- MTRX announces the appointment of Shawn P. Payne as Chief Operating Officer, effective immediately
Buybacks:
- ALL $4 billion share repurchase program will commence once existing $1.5 billion program has been fully executed.
- ITUB authorizes new share repurchase program.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today of note: VLO DHI WTFC IDA KBH AZZ FUL of note.
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.
- ALL increases dividend by 8%.
- ALLE increases quarterly dividend 8% to $0.55 per share from $0.51 per share
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)
- Futures S&P 500 -15, NASDAQ 100 -81, Dow Jones -88. Europe is lower ex France while Asia is lower ex Hang Sang. Bond yield is at 4.264% from 4.28% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $69.297 lower -5.56% at $-4067.
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Energy, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Financials were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Communication Service sand Consumer Cyclical were lower.
- One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close: (>$10 billion Market Cap)
- Tomorrow Before The Open:
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beat: SONY +1.68, CI+0.20, B +0.14, EL +0.06
- Missed: UBER -0.65, ARES -0.24, MT -0.16, JCI -0.16, CARR -0.02 of note.
- Still to Report: FOXA ABBV of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – AMSC MUSA MOD FORM KLIC TTMI of note.
- Mixed – None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – NTGR QCOM SNAP ESS AVB FMC REXR WOLF of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: AMSC +16.7%, ALXO +12.9%, SITM +12.4%, ALGN +10.9%, FORM +10.2%, SYM +9.9%, NIO +9.9%, KLIC +9.6%, CPAY +8.9%, NTGR +8.3%, TENB +7.9%, EZPW +7.5%, ELF +6.5%, SNAP +6.3%, PTC +5.7%, BIDU +5.4%, PAHC +5%, CLS +4.7%, SNEX +3.9%, DHT +3.8%, BOOT +3.8%, CMP +3.8%, DDL +3.7%, ALVO +3.5%, GENI +3.3%, PTEN +3.3%, CARS +3.2%, MC +3.1%, ARWR +3%, RRX +2.9%, LITE +2.5%, GBDC +2.1%, MT +2.1%, OHI +2%,of note.
- GapDown: CRNC -18.7%, FLNC -16.7%, WOLF -14.7%, KMPR -14.3%, QCOM -11.8%, RAL -11.2%, EL -10.5%, CARR -9.9%, VOD -8.3%, ARM -7.9%, ARM -7.9%, CENT -7.4%, BNC -6.7%, DGII -5.7%, FMC -5.7%, CCI -5.5%, COHR -5%, UHAL -4.5%, SVM -4.4%, UGI -4.1%, GOOG -3.3%, ASGN -3.2%, ASX -3%, REXR -2.8%, ORLY -2.5%, HIVE -2.2%, LPG -2.2%, XEL -2.2%, AFL -2.1%, VCTR -2.1%, SONY -2.1%, NEGG -2%, NOV -2% of note.
Insider Action: None sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- WSJ Lead Story: Investor Jitters Persist After Two Day Tech Rout. (WSJ)
- Markets Wrap: Tech Stocks Under Pressure As Bitcoin Sinks. (Bloomberg)
- NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Private Credit Starts To Crack. (NYT)
- Bloomberg Lead: Bitcoin Breaks Below $70,000. (Bloomberg)
- Thoughtful Money: Economy About To Break (Podcast)
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
- Fed Speakers are out of the blackout period.
- Fed Atlanta President Bostic (10:50 a.m. EST)
- Fed Speakers are out of the blackout period.
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- Attends the National Prayer Breakfast at 8:30 a.m. EST.
- Receives the Intelligence Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EST.
- Makes Announcement at 7:00 p.m. EST.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly
- Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 p.m. EST.
- Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.
- Monthly
- December JOLTS is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and came in last month at 7.146 million.
- Weekly
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.
Moving Average Table: 53% from 56% of Equities are Positive, and 8% unchanged Bonds are Negative.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- DA Davidson Midwestern Bank Summit
- BMO Infrastructure & Utilities Conference
- Goldman Sachs: Energy Symposium Week
- Macquarie China Consumer Channel Check Day
- Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor: NYXH, XTIA of note.
- Shareholder Meetings: BZH, GEOS, MBRX, TWST of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Insights Symposium
- Lake Street Life-Sciences Invitationa
- Noble Capital Markets Emerging Growth Virtual Equity Conference
- Small Cap Growth Investor Conference
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: ADNT CE FUBO SNAP VRNS ZGN of note.
- Downgrades: EXR ODFL SHOO of note.