CAPIS Morning Note – 02/02/26: Stocks Lower As Volatility Continues

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -0.43% at 6939.03 from Thursday lower by -0.13% at 6969.01. The low on Thursday, SPX was 6870.80. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 as it moved back above 6900 with last Thursday’s close. Resistance is now at 7000. S&P 500 hit […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -0.43% at 6939.03 from Thursday lower by -0.13% at 6969.01. The low on Thursday, SPX was 6870.80.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 as it moved back above 6900 with last Thursday’s close. Resistance is now at 7000.
  • S&P 500 hit its fourth All-Time Closing High of 2026 on Tuesday.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is higher by 1.37% from 1.80% on Thursday’s close.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -50.25 (-0.75%) at 6942.50 on the SP 500 around 6:05 a.m. EST.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.257% from 4.253%.

Executive Summary:

  • Last week we noted that is was, “Highly unlikely that there was a cut with strong Q3 GDP and the Atlanta Fed’s forecast of 5.4% Q4 GDP”. That favors a selloff and here we go. Since Wednesday, the S&P 500 is lower by -0.56%.
  • The case for a Government Shutdown is not over as we have a partial shut down as of this morning. Hopefully, this is resolved this week.
  • This is another big earnings week. Expect volatility to continue.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly – None of note.
    • Monthly – January ISM Manufacturing is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Fed Atlanta President Bostic
  • 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction at 11:30 a.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Participates in Signing Time at 3:30 p.m. EST.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note. 
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • BNTC files for 1,481,481 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • RDNT files prospectus supplement relating to the resale of up to 190,924 shares of common stock by the selling stockholders.
    • SPWR files for 22,381,878 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • FSBC files for $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.

News After The Close:

  • Peloton (PTON) reduces workforce 11%, including engineering roles.
  • President Trump intends to pick Brett Matsumoto for Bureau of Labor Statistics head role per The Wall Street Journal.
  • Walt Disney (DIS) CEO Bob Iger has told associates he plans to step down before the Dec. 31 end of his contract, board expected to vote on new CEO next week.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang walks back how much the company will invest in Open AI.
  • LHX awarded a $283.3 million US Air Force contract for ground control element support and sustainment services.
  • GD awarded a $255.1 million US Navy contract.
  • Seattle Seahawks reportedly to go up for sale after Super Bowl LX, according to ESPN.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • OLMA announces that COO and CFO Shane Kovacs is departing, effective January 30 
  • BYRN COO John Brasseur to step down in order to pursue other professional opportunities, effective Feb 17 

Buybacks:

  • AZZ approves a new $100 million share repurchase program.
  • SMBK authorizes $10 million share repurchase plan.
  • ABX announces $20 million share repurchase program.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: C AYI HYG KMI LQD NRG OKE TLT WES ALLY EWBC GGAL of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: MET NI SXT BANR SRCE BY SPH CCEC AMAL of note.
  • SMA declares a dividend of approximately $0.1227 per share for month of February, reflecting targeted annualized dividend of $1.60 per share compared to a current forward dividend of $1.34 per share 

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 -, NASDAQ 100 -, Dow Jones -. Europe is higher while Asia is lower ex China. Bond yield is at 4.226% from 4.253% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower for a second day in a row. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $77,748 higher by 0.79% up +$675  from $82,809 lower by -1.36% down $-1113.48 on Friday.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive and Healthcare were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before The Open: (Greater than $5bil)

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beat: IDXX +0.15, RVTY +0.13, NSSC +0.06, DIS +0,06, TSN +0.02, APTV +0.01
  • Missed: None of note.
  • Still to Report:  HESM TWST of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – RVTY of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – APTV of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: MOLN +10.8%, PSNY +2.8%, ABX +2.6% of note.
  • GapDown: PHAR -13%, OLMA -7.3%, XPEV -4.3%, EGO -3.5%, BBNX -2.4%, TSLA -2.2%, ORCL -2.2%of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.

Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story:  Market swings signal choppy start to week. (WSJ)
  • Markets Wrap: . (Bloomberg)
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Target’s New CEO faces hometown crisis. (NYT)
  • Bloomberg Lead: Trump Launches a $12 Billion Minerals Stockpile to Counter China. (Bloomberg)
  • Thoughtful Money: Risk-off Reset Ahead for Stocks? (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Gold & Silver not a Bubble? (Podcast)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Fed Speakers are out of the blackout period.
      • Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at 12:30 p.m. EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in signing time at 3:30 p.m. EST.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • None of note.
    •  Monthly
      • January ISM Manufacturing are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to rise to 48.30% from 47.90%.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  53% from 76% of Equities are Positive, and 52% from 56% of Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • DA Davidson Midwestern Bank Summit
    • Goldman Sachs Saudi CMF Select
    • Goldman Sachs: Energy Symposium Week
  • Top Analyst, Investor: None of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: BLBX, HCTI of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Payments of the Future

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: FUTU MCD of note.
  • Downgrades: HUM INDB PB