Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
- The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.41% at 6978.60 from Monday higher by 0.50% at 6950.23.
- The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 as it moved back above 6900 with last Thursday’s close. Resistance is now at 7000.
- S&P 500 hit its third All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Monday, January 12.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is higher by 1.94% from 1.52% on Wednesday’s close.
- Futures are higher this morning by +22.50 (+0.32%) at 7031 on the SP 500 around 6:20 a.m. EST.
- Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.249% from 4.221%.
Executive Summary:
- Fed speakers are in a blackout period through 2:30 p.m. EST when the FOMC concludes its meeting.
- Highly unlikely that there is a cut with strong Q3 GDP and the Atlanta Fed’s forecast of 5.4% Q4 GDP. That favors a selloff.
- The case for a Government Shutdown grows on Friday as Republican and Democrat divide grows over the Minneapolis shooting.
- This is a big earnings week. Expect volatility.
- The latest Short Interest Data for NYSE and NASDAQ is out and NYSE was flat while NASDAQ rose 1.41%
- Updated Short Interest Absolute Table since June Close. Note the rise since June close.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
- Weekly – Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EST.
- Monthly –FOMC out today.
- Fed Speakers of Note today: Fed Speakers are in blackout period until 2:30 p.m. EST.
- President Trump’s schedule:
- Nothing posted for today at 6:30 a.m. EST.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: FFIV +0.79, QRVO +0.31, STX +0.28, LOGI +0.17, NXT +0.16, MANH +-0.08, PFS +0.08, TRMK +0.02, of note.
- Misses: GEF -0.78, PKG -0.09, PPG -0.07, BXP -0.04, TXN -0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: None of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- ALT – Pricing of $75 Million Registered Direct Offering of Common Stock.
- FEAM: Form S-1..8,720,930 Shares of Common Stock.
- SARO: Form S-3ASR..187,137,524 Shares.
- SATL – Satellogic Announces Closing of $35 Million Registered Direct Offering of Common Stock.
- STEX – Closing of Underwriters’ Over-Allotment Option in Full, Resulting in Gross Proceeds of $40.25 Million.
- VANI – Closing of Common Stock Offering.
- VENU Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
- Notes Filed Or Priced:
- FDX Pricing of FedEx Freight’s $3.7 Billion Offering of Senior Notes in Connection with Planned Spin-Off.
- Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders:
- SARO – Pricing of Its Secondary Offering of 50,000,000 Shares of Common Stock by Affiliates of The Carlyle Group Inc. and GIC.
- Private Placements:
- ASTI – Closing of up to $25 Million Private Placement Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules $10 million upfront with up to approximately $15 million of potential aggregate proceeds upon the exercise in full of warrants.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- BZAI: Form S-3.. $250 Million Mixed Shelf.
- CPOP: FORM F-3 – $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
News After The Close:
- Embraer (EMBJ) discloses that Q4 backlog reached a record $31.6 billion.
- Vale (VALE) provides Q4 production and sales update.
- LMT awarded a $129 million Air Force contract.
- Deere (DE) announces major expansion with two new US facilities.
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- NGS announced Stephen Taylor, Chairman Emeritus and member of the Board of Directors, has informed the Company that he will retire as a Director at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders and not stand for re-election to the Board.
- LC announces that John C. (Hans) Morris notified the company of his intent to resign as independent Chairman of the Board, effective as of March 31, 2026.
- SF announces a three-for-two stock split of stifel’s common stock in the form of a 50% stock dividend to be distributed on February 26, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 12.
- LYFT appoints Deborah Hersman to its Board of Directors, she was at Waymo.
Buybacks:
- BDX authorizes 10 million additional share repurchases; co has completed $250 million repurchase to date in FY26.
- ASB authorizes the repurchase of up to $100 million of common stock.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today of note: PAYX WST ENTG CLKX AM CALM PAGS PXED of note.
- Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note: None of note.
- ES increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.7875 per share from $0.7525 per share.
- ORFF increases quarterly dividend to $0.30 per sh from $0.27 per share.
- ED increases quarterly dividend 4.4% to $0.8875 per share.
- SUN increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.9317 per share from $0.9202 per share.
- TRMK announces 4.2% increase in its regular quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share from $0.24 per share.
- ADP increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.81 per share from $1.79 per share.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)
- Futures S&P 500 +17, NASDAQ 100 +205, Dow Jones -33. Europe is lower while Asia is higher ex Australia. Bond yield is at 4.249% from 4.227% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $89,919 higher by 0.89% which is $792 from $87,909 higher by 0.26% which is $243.
Sector Action:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Technology, Financials and Utilities were higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclicals, Real Estate and Industrials were lower.
- One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close: (Above $5 billion –if looking for under $5 billion go to Erlanger Scans then TWA -Earnings Due Out For The Week)
- Tomorrow Before The Open: (Above $10 billion -if looking for under $10 billion go to Erlanger Scans then TWA -Earnings Due Out For The Week)
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: GEV+10.41, TEVA +0.32, EAT +0.25, VFC +0.13, DHR +0.07, T +0.06, ADP+0.05 of note.
- Misses: ASML -0.23, NAVI -0.29, LII -0.30 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – SARO of note.
- Mixed – None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – RWAY KMI of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: LRN +32.5%, NXT +13.9%, STX +10.3%, FFIV +9.8%, TXN +8.7%, MANH +6.9%, WIX +6.6%, ASML +6.2%, SYBT +3.7%, EDU +3.6%, VFC +3.6%, ALHC +2.9%, BXP +2.9%, LZ +2.8%, DGII +2.8%, PONY +2.7%, BROS +2.5%, RYN +2.3%, APLS +2% of note.
- GapDown: VENU -19.9%, ALT -15%, TRMK -14.9%, QRVO -11.3%, UMC -9.9%, ELVR -9.8%, SARO -7.8%, PFS -7%, ELV -6.5%, GEF -4.9%, BZAI -3% of note.
Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.
Insider Action: None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. JYNT sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- WSJ Lead Story: Amazon to Lay Off 16,000 Employees. (WSJ)
- Markets Wrap: Stocks . (Bloomberg)
- NY Times Business Section Lead Story: Record Debt in World’s Richest Nations Threatens Global Growth. (NYT)
- Bloomberg Lead: Trump’s Embrace of a Weaker Dollar Fuels Bets On The Downtrend. (Bloomberg)
- Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart: Oil & Gas Stocks To Boom with Rick Rule. (Podcast)
- Kalshi Fed Forecasts are as good as Wall Street’s. (Bloomberg)
- Mortgage Applications fell -8.5%, out at 7:00 a.m. EST.
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
- Fed Speakers are in Blackout Period until 2:30 P.M. EST
- President Trump’s schedule for today:
- None posted as of 6:30 a.m. EST.
- Economic Data Out –
- Weekly
- Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 a.m. EST.
- Monthly
- The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is out with its latest decision at 2:00 p.m. EST with a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST with Chairman Powell.
- Weekly
M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.
Moving Average Table: 73% from 87% of Equities are Positive, and 76% from 92% of Bonds are Positive.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- TD Cowen’s Global Mining Conference
- Top Analyst, Investor: AGEN ANVS HALO of note.
- Shareholder Meetings: ACN APD J OMC of note.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- Capital Link Company Presentation Series
- DealFlow Discovery Conference
- TechGALA Japan
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
- Upgrades: KKR MCHP V of note.
- Downgrades: PAA PYPL of note.