CAPIS Morning Note – 01/27/23: Intel Missed Estimates And Guides Lower, NASDAQ Indexes Lower Than S&P 500

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday by 1.10% at 4060.43 from Wednesday lower by -0.02% at 4016.22.  The overnight high of 4076.50 was hit at 4:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4057.25 at 3:25 a.m. EST, a range of ~19 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini)…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday by 1.10% at 4060.43 from Wednesday lower by -0.02% at 4016.22.  The overnight high of 4076.50 was hit at 4:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4057.25 at 3:25 a.m. EST, a range of ~19 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -9.50 points which is -0.23%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: KLAC +0.29, V +0.17, AX +0.15, HTH +0.12, FICO +0.08, WRB +0.07, WY +0.06, AJG +0.04, FFBC +0.04, ASB +0.04, RMD +0.04, OLN +0.02, RHI +0.01, WSFS +0.01  of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: PACW (0.64), EMN (0.35), FIBK (0.19), ABCB (0.17), SSB (0.14), KNX (0.11), INTC (0.10), FHI (0.10), GBCI (0.01), LHX (0.01) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

  

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • INPX: Form 8K– issued an aggregate of 476,500 shares of its common stock.
    • MOVE: Proposed Public Offering. (Newbridge Bookmanager)
    • SLDB: Filed Form S-1.. 11,992,548 shares common stock.
    • WGS: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Class a Common Stock and Concurrent Registered Direct Offering. (Jefferies bookmanager)
    • XRTX: Filed Form F-3.. US$50,000,000 Common Shares Warrants Units.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • SLGL: Announces Aggregate $22.8 Million Concurrent Registered Direct and Private Placement Offerings..
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • Avantax, Inc. (AVTA) Commences a Modified Dutch Auction Tender Offer to Repurchase up to $250 Million of its Common Stock..
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: NOG +7%, AJG +4%, AX +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: INTC -9%, HAS -7%, KLAC -%%, RHI -5% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours:  INTC, V, HAS, KLAC (CNBC)
    • Blackstone (BX) Faces $5 Billion Of Withdrawal Requests From More Property Funds. (FT)
    • Intel (INTC) Tumbles After Forecast Suggests Comeback Is Far Off. (Bloomberg)
    • Intel (INTC):
      • Will Not Give Annual Forecasts For 2023.
      • Says Macro Difficulties To Last Through First Half.
      • Seeing The Largest Ever Inventory Correction By Customers In Q1 – Q1 Revenue Outlook Impacted By Sharp Inventory Correction By Customers.
    • KLA Corp. (KLAC) stock sinks as outlook disappoints following a drop in chip demand. (MarketWatch)
    • Hasbro (HAS) issues downside guidance, COO to leave and eliminate 1,000 jobs (15% of workforce) as well as organizational changes, hits other toy stocks. (WSJ)
    • MORGAN STANLEY: “.. are the lows on $TSLA in for this year? I’m not so sure about that .. we see FY23 as a year where auto price inflation turns to deflation .. we could see Tesla test new lows in the first half (our updated bear case is $70) before exceeding our $220 .. target.”
    • Tesla (TSLA) now accounts for ~7% of all options trading on an average day. On Jan. 6, the busiest day on record, more than 5.2 million contracts traded, nearly **10%** of all options. (WSJ)
    • FDA advisers recommend using same strain for initial COVID vaccine and boosters. (PFE, MRNA) (Reuters)
    • Lockheed Martin’s (LMT) Sikorsky awarded $657 million U.S. Army contract modification.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Arbutus (ABUS) Announces Resignation of Board Member.
    • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) names Flaton to board for $30,000 a month. (MarketWatch)
    • Canoo (GOEV) Appoints Ken Manget Chief Financial Officer.
    • Chevron (CVX) appoints Mark A Nelson Vice Chairman.
    • Cincinnati Bancorp, Inc. (CNNB) Announces Voluntary SEC Deregistration and Nasdaq Delisting.
    • Ecopetrol (EC) announces that Felipe Bayón Pardo will lead the Company as CEO.
    • Hasbro (HAS) Announces Organizational Changes.  COO to step down; to eliminate 1,000 jobs and implement leadership and other organizational changes. (WSJ)
    • Industrias Bachoco SA (IBA) announces retirement of its CEO Rodolfo Ramos, Ernesto Salmon to succeed him.
    • Marqeta (MQ) Names Simon Khalaf as CEO.
    • Match Group (MTCH) CEO Bernard Kim Names Executive Leadership Team.
    • New Pacific Metals (NEWP) names Andrew Williams as President.
    • Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) to join S&P SmallCap 600.
    • Partner Communications (PTNR) Announces Delisting From Nasdaq And Concentration Of Its Share Trading On The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.
    • Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) Strengthens Leadership Team With Appointment of Senior Executive John Martin as Chief Financial Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) Increases Share Repurchase Authorization to $200 Million.
    • PCB Bancorp (PCB) Announces Amendment to Stock Repurchase Plan.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Liminal BioSciences (LMNL) announces 10-for-1 reverse stock split.
    • WISA trading reverse split price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Archrock (AROC) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.15 per share, a 3.5% increase.
    • AOS Goes ex div on Monday for $0.30.
    • AXP To Boost Quarterly Div By 15% To $0.60 per share.
    • Hilltop Holdings (HTH) increases quarterly dividend by 7%.
    • LNT Goes ex div on Monday for $0.4525.
    • NiSource (NI) increases quarterly stock dividend 6.4% to $0.25 per share.
    • Schwab (SCHW) Declares 14% Increase in Quarterly Common Stock Dividend and Declares Preferred Stock Dividends.
    • Silvergate Capital (SI) has suspended the payment of dividends on its 5.375% Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A, in order to preserve capital.
    • South State (SSB) declared a quarterly cash dividend on its common stock of $0.50 per share.
    • Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Announces Cash Dividends, Increasing Quarterly Common Stock Dividend Rate By 17.6%.
    • Weyerhaeuser (WY) declares supplemental dividend of $0.90 per share on its common stock.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -14, Dow Jones -19,  NASDAQ -68,  and Russell 2000 -7. (as of 7:59 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are higher.  Europe markets are trading higher. VIX Futures are at 19.77 from 19.95 yesterday.  Gold higher, Silver lower and Copper higher.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.552% from 3.487% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $22,985 from $23,058 yesterday, lower by -0.52%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Real Estate, and Financial  of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Energy, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, and Communication Services of note.

U.S. stocks rose Thursday after a fresh slate of economic-data and corporate earnings reports continued to paint a mixed picture of the economy’s direction.  The S&P 500 added 44.21 points, or 1.1%, to 4060.43, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 199.06 points, or 1.8%, to 11512.41. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 205.57 points, or 0.6%, to 33949.41, rising for five consecutive trading days.  All three indexes are up for the year so far, though their rally has been choppy and tentative. On Wednesday, the major indexes had closed nearly flat after a slew of earnings reports.  (WSJ)

 

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Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: HCA +2.49, ALV +0.18, ROP +0.15, BAH +0.03, PFS +0.03, SBSI +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: FBP, CL of note.
  • Misses: CHTR (1.26), STEL (0.73), CVX (0.20), AXP (0.17) of note.
  • Still to Report: BMI, FHB, GNTX of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: EMN, LPG, AXP of note.
  • Negative Guidance: INTC, HAS, HCA of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: NOG +7% of note.
  • Gap Down: INTC -9%, PACW -8%, WRB -6%, KLAC -5%, HAS -5%, ARCE -4%, RHI -4%, APPF -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  COIN sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: CVX, INTC, AXP, SI, AMD, RL, CHWY, V, HAS, KLAC (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Adani Rout Crosses $51 billion as Stocks Plunge by Daily Limits. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  U.S. has not noticed that Chinese cars are taking over the world. (Bloomberg)
  • House GOP considers a debt limit extension to September 30. (Bloomberg)
  • Fed sees soft landing as silver lining that their bid of soft landing is working as Temp jobs decline. (Bloomberg)
  • Vegas hotel guests file lawsuit over hotel room rates in the city. (Bloomberg)
  • Almost half of Americans think we are in a recession. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score inches 97%.  Lone hold out is the NASDAQ 200 Day

 

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:30 p.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route Camp David, 5:30 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • December Personal Income is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 0.2% from 0.4% in November.
  • December PCE Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST as well and is expected to come in at 0.3% from 0.2% in November.
  • December Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to come in at -1.0% from -4.0%.
  • The January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) is expected to stay at 64.6.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: With the FOMC announcement coming we do have a Fed blackout period set for January 21 until Feb 2.

M&A Activity:

  • OneSpan (OSPN) to Acquire Blockchain Technology Provider ProvenDB to Bring Secure Vaulting to the Future of Digital Transactions.
  • TopBuild (BLD) acquires SRI Holdings.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Roth Capital Partners Aesthetics Tech Summit
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Capital Link Corporate Presentation Series (through 01/31/23)
        • TD Securities Mining Conference (01/25/23-01/27/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: