CAPIS Morning Note – 01/20/26: Ugly Start To Week On Trump’s Greenland Demands

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -0.06% at 6940.01 from Thursday higher by 0.26% at 6944.47. The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 as it moved back above 6900 with last Monday’s close. Resistance is now at 7000. S&P 500 hit its third All-Time Closing High of 2026 […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:

  • The S&P 500 finished Friday lower by -0.06% at 6940.01 from Thursday higher by 0.26% at 6944.47.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 6900 as it moved back above 6900 with last Monday’s close. Resistance is now at 7000.
  • S&P 500 hit its third All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Monday, January 12.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 finished up by 1.44% from 1.18% on Friday’s close.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -109.25 (-1.57%) at 6867.50 on the SP 500 around 6:10 a.m. EST.
  • Bond Market is lower today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.291% from 4.172%.

Executive Summary:

  • Davos World Economic Forum begins this week and President Trump to speak there.
  • Fed speakers are in a blackout period through next Wednesday.
  • Clearly, the decision by President Trump to pursue Greenland is moving markets and will need to be resolved quickly to avoid market turmoil.

Key Events of Note Today:

  • Economic news of note is still delayed due to the government shutdown but we will be producing what is scheduled to be reported.
    • Weekly – None of note for today.
    • Monthly -None of note for today.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Fed Speakers are in blackout period through January 28th.
  • Short Term Bond Auctions and 11:30 and 1:00 EST.
  • President Trump’s schedule:
    • Has a Signing Time in the afternoon.
    • The President returned to the Whoite House at 2:10 a.m. from the Indiana vs. Miami National Championship Game in Miami , FL.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: BOK+0.32 of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: None of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • BH: Form S-3 – $500,000,000  shares of Class A and B Common Stock
    • IVP: FORM S-1 – 200,000,000 shares of Class A Common Stock
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • SKYX files for 3,350,000 share common stock offering by selling shareholders
  • Private Placements:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • APM: Form F-3.. $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf
    • BCAB: Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf
    • EPM: Form S-3.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf
    • REFI: Form S-3.. $452,114,647 Mixed Shelf
    • UFG: Form F-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf

News After The Close:

  • Google (GOOGL) files notice to appeal the DOJ search decision,
  • President Trump to invoke a 10% tariff on 8 European Countries for not selling Greenland to the U.S. Tariff will rise to 25%.
  • StandardAero (SARO) will replace Frontier Communications (FYBR) in the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, January 22.
  • BAESY awarded a $204 mln Navy contract.
  • SHW awarded a $127.5 mln Navy contract to provide worldwide paints, coatings, solvents, preservation products, and engineering and technical services.
  • BA awarded a $25.3 bln Defense Microelectronics Activity contract.
  • LMT and BAESY awarded a $25.3 bln Defense Microelectronics Activity contract. 

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • MLKN appoints former J. Jill CEO Claire Spofford to Board of Directors.
  • On January 14, 2026, C. Michael Dozier, Executive Vice President, announced his retirement from PACCAR (PCAR) after 37 years of service. Mr. Dozier’s retirement is effective April 1, 2026. W. Lance Walters, Assistant Vice President, will be promoted to Vice President and will assume responsibilities for the company’s operations in Australia, Mexico and South America effective April 1, 2026.

Buybacks: None of note.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: CMRE CARR ZTS DELL PNC CAT of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow day of note: CL LOW of note.
  • MCB increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.20/share from $0.15/share.
  • FAST increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.24/share from $0.22/share.
  • SCM reduces regular dividend to $0.34/share from $0.40/share. 

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:35 a.m. EST)

  • Futures S&P 500 -104.25, NASDAQ 100 -456.75, Dow Jones -679. Europe is lower while Asia is low. Bond yield is at 4.293% from 4.181% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $91,197 from $95,450 lower by -2.06% which is at $-1903.

Sector Action:

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Real Estate, Energy, Industrials and Financials were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Materials, Consumer Cyclicals and Healthcare were lower.
  • One Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Materials, Industrials, Energy, Healthcare and Financials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Communication Services, Industrials and Energy of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Technology and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Materials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Defensive and Real Estate of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: 

  • Wednesday Before The Open:

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: CMA +0.1, DHI +0.10, USB +0.07, FITB +0.04, MMM +0.03, KEY +0.02  of note.
  • Misses: FOR -0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – CSWS of note.
  • Mixed – None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – OLN of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • GapUp: RAPT +63.8%, NUAI +9.1%, IAG +7.2%, SLV +6.7%, IBRX +5.8%, B +3.9%, GLD +3.3%, YMM +2.7%, SPHR +2.6%, SLN +2.2%, LOT +2.1%of note.
  • GapDown: BKKT -8.6%, VALN -7.7%, SKYX -4%, AZN -3.8%, COHR -3.7%, MRNA -3.1%, SCM -3%, BA -2.4%, OGN -2.4%, AXL -2.3% of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list. No new outliers of note.

Insider Action:  None see Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  None sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: None.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Trump Doubles Down on Greenlead Ahead of Davos Arrival. (WSJ)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Treasuries Join Global Bond Slide After Japan Triggers Selloff. (Bloomberg)
  • NY Times Business Section Lead Story: China’s Birthrate Drops To Lowest Level Since 1949. (NYT)
  • Markets Wrap: Stocks sink on Greenlead as Japan stirs bond rout. (WSJ)
  • Barron’s is + on SIEGY NGG and +/- on.

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Fed Speakers are in Blackout Period until 1/28.
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • President Trump attends a Signing at 3:00 p.m. EST.
    • Flies to Davos, Switzerland in the evening.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • None of note.
    •  Monthly
      • None of note.

M&A Activity & Daily Changes: None of note.

Moving Average Table:  70% from 80% of Equities are Positive, and 44% from 92% of Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bernstein Utility Conference
    • Needham Growth Conference
  • Top Analyst, Investor: AYTU, OGEN of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: ATOS, OPTX  of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note. 
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • Davos
    • Capital Link’s Corporate Presentation Series

Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrades: ENPH ICHR METC NNN O ONON PSTL REG  of note.
  • Downgrades: EIX HE IDA NTAP NWE OGE SO of note.