CAPIS Morning Note – 01/11/23: Markets Up Modestly As They Await CPI Tomorrow

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.70% at 3919.25 from Monday lower by -0.08% at 3892.09.  The overnight high of 3954.75 was hit at 5:15 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3934.50 at 2:10 a.m. EST, a range of ~20 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.70% at 3919.25 from Monday lower by -0.08% at 3892.09.  The overnight high of 3954.75 was hit at 5:15 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3934.50 at 2:10 a.m. EST, a range of ~20 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was 8.50.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

  

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • MGO Global (MGOL) 1.5 Million share IPO, offered at $5.00.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Mercato Partners Acquisition Corporation (MPRA) Signs Letter of Intent for a Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • RWT: Pricing of Public Offering of Preferred Stock.
    • WHD: Prices Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • GERN: Closing of Upsized Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants Plus Full Exercise of the Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares for Total Gross Proceeds of $227.8 Million.
    • PEAR: Form 424B5.. Up to $150,000,000 of Shares ofClass A Common Stock.
    • SENS: Filed Form S-3.. 10,000,000 Shares of Common Stock Nonstatutory Stock Options Restricted Stock Units.
    • WHD: Public Offering of Common Stock .. $150,000,000 of its Class A common stock. (JPM Bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • DCTH: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 2,140,931 Shares of Common Stock Offered by the Selling Stockholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • VIVK: Filed Form S-3.. $100Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • Merck (MRK) Completes Tender Offer to Acquire Imago BioSciences, Inc.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: PROK +24%, HKD +9%, BLND +8%, PI +5%, CONN +5%.
    • Trading Down: ICHR -17%, HALO -6%.
  • News Since The Close:         
    • Oil Price Cap Costs Russia $170 Million A Day, Researcher Says – (Bloomberg)
    • FedEx (FDX) to Pare Sunday Deliveries Again as E-Commerce Wanes. (Bloomberg)
    • Wells Fargo (WFC) Announces Strategic Direction for Home Lending: A Smaller, Less Complex Business Focused on Bank Customers and Minority Communities. (CNBC)
    • Best Buy (BBBY) Takes On Amazon Prime With New Free Shipping Benefit. (CNET)
    • Tesla (TSLA) applies for massive $700 million expansion of Gigafactory Texas. (Electrek)
    • Jeffrey Gundlach, Doubline Capital (Bloomberg):
      • Says “I am very excited about 2023!” He said last year felt “hopeless” for investors, especially bond managers. He calls the bond market “absolutely exciting.”
      • Preferred equity exposure: anything but the US (ROW, Europe, EMs). “I prefer Emerging Market” equities.
      • Says “I think the dollar is headed lower”
    • Vitamin Shoppe Owner Franchise Group (FRG) Considers Going Private. (WSJ)
    • Halo Therapeutics (HALO) stock drops following weak 2023 outlook. (MarketWatch)
    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) awarded $464 million U.S. Air Force contract.
    • Monthly Assets Under Management: CNS -4.5% mom
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AIG CFO to Take Temporary Medical Leave of Absence. (MarketWatch)
    • Avanos Medical, Inc. (AVNS) Announces New Leadership Appointments.
    • First Financial (FFIN) elects Michelle S. Hickox as EVP and CFO.
    • Flywire (FLYW) Announces Changes to Board of Directors.
    • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) announces that Frank D’Amelio, former CFO of Pfizer (PFE), has been appointed to its Board of Directors. (MarketWatch)
    • Luokung (LKCO) Receives Nasdaq Listing Determination Company to Request Hearing.
    • NYSE American has Commenced Delisting Proceedings in the MIMO  WSC Warrants of Airspan Networks Holdings Inc. (MIMO)
    • Skeena (SKE) Announces Chief Operating Officer Shane Williams Has Left The Company; Randy Reichert, President & CEO, Will Temporarily Assume The Duties Of COO In Addition To His Normal.
    • World Wrestling (WWE) Board of Directors unanimously elects Vince McMahon Executive Chairman.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) plans up to $150 million in share repurchases.
    • Integra (IART) reiterates plans to initiate a $150 million share repurchase.
    • Laser Photonics (LASE) Board of Directors Authorizes 2 Million Share Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Victoria’s Secret & Co. (VSCO) Announces New Share Repurchase Authorization up to $250 million.
  • Stock Splits or News: 
    • EAR 1-for-20 Reverse Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • ABBV Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.48.
    • MAA Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.40.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +7, Dow Jones +55,  NASDAQ +12,  and Russell 2000 +3. (as of 7:57 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are higher.  Europe markets are trading higher. VIX Futures are at 22.15 from 23.41  yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher. $ barely down. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.576% from 3.565%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is flat versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $17,414 from $17,232 yesterday, lower by -0.28%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Basic Materials, Communication Services, Healthcare of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Financial, Basic Materials, Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrials, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Energy, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, and Financial of note.

U.S. stocks rose Tuesday, even as investors parsed remarks from Federal Reserve officials indicating a higher-for-longer outlook for interest rates.  The S&P 500 rose 27.16 points, or 0.7%, to 3919.25, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 186.45 points, or 0.6%, to 33704.10. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 106.98 points, or 1%, to 10742.63.   Investors have been cheered in recent weeks by signs that inflation is moderating and hints that central-bank officials are considering when to stop raising interest rates. Still, Fed policy makers have sounded a cautious note that even when rate increases end, monetary policy will have to remain tight.   Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the central bank is strongly committed to lowering inflation, even though interest-rate increases to restrain economic growth could fuel political blowback.  (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: KBH of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: TSM of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: GTY, NARI, SHAK, ICLR, ACLS, PI, IART, AXNX, INMD, MDRX of note.
  • Negative Guidance: SNX, INGN, ILMN, ICHR, CVLT, HALO, VSCO of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: PROK +54%, WWE +7%, CONN +6%, BLZE +6%, HKD +5%, GATO +5%, FFIN +5%, PI +5% of note.
  • Gap Down: ICHR -17%, PLMR -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: KMX, CRM, COIN, LUV, WFC, TSLA, LEVI, WBD, TOL, DIS. (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: U.S. Flights Grounded After Outage of Key FAA Advisory System.  (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Apple (AAPL) to Begin Making In House Screens in 2024 in Shift Away From Samsung. (Bloomberg)
  • Fed’s No Rate Cut Mantra Is Being Rejected By Markets Seeing A Recession. (Bloomberg)
  • Mortgage Refinance Demand surges after rates fall and homeowners take advantage of the drop. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score increases to 77% from 65%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 1:00 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:00 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
    • 30-yr Mortage Rate Actual: 6.42% VS 6.58% Previous
    • Applications (WOW) Atual: 1.2% VS -10.3% Previous
    • Composite: +1.2%, Purchase: -0.5%, ReFi: +5.1%
  • Atl. Fed Business Inflation 10:00 a.m. EST
  • ET EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out for the period of December 13th through December 28th. During that period, the S&P 500 fell -5.88%.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity: None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • CJS Securities 23rd Annual New Ideas for the New Year Investor Conference 2023.
    • Bank of America ASEAN Conference 2023
    • Fearnley Securities Offshore Drilling Seminar 2023
    • KPMG Symposium
    • Seaport Transformation & Sustainability Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • ATB Capital Institutional Investor Conference (01/10/23-01/12/23)
        • Bank of America C-Suite SMID Conference (01/10/23-01/11/23)
        • Commerzbank German Investment Seminar
        • Goldman Sachs Currencies & EM Conference
        • H.C. Wainwright Biotech Conference 2023 (01/09/23-01/13/23)
        • JP Morgan 41st Annual Healthcare Conference 2023 (01/09/23-01/12/23)
        • Morgan Stanley Latin America Executive Conference (01/10/23-01/13/23)
        • Needham 25th Annual Growth Conference 2023 (01/09/23-01/12/23)
        • UBS Winter Infrastructure & Energy Conference (01/09/23-01/11/23)
        • UBS Greater China Conference 2023 January Main conference (01/09/23-01/12/23)
  • Company Meetings: CMC, CPTN, VISL .
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BCLI, DESP, FFIV, PALT, PPL, RGLD,  STNG.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:  None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: