CAPIS Morning Note – 01/06/23: Jobs Friday Sees December Data Out At 8:30 a.m. EST

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -1.16% at 3808.10 with Wednesday higher by 0.75% at 3852.97.  The overnight high of 3849 was hit at 10:35 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3824 at 4:40 a.m. EST, a range of ~25 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -1.16% at 3808.10 with Wednesday higher by 0.75% at 3852.97.  The overnight high of 3849 was hit at 10:35 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3824 at 4:40 a.m. EST, a range of ~25 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was +1.25.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: DCT +0.02.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Avalon Acquisition Inc. (AVAC) Confirms Funding to Extend Period to Consummate Initial Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • GERN 55.8 Million shares offering priced at $2.45 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • NXE: Establishes C$250 Million At-the-Market Equity Program.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AAOI: Filed Form S-3. $185 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • MRO: Filed Form S-3ASR. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: CTMX +61%, EFTR +18%, AEHR +15%, WWE +10%, SRTS +8%, FUSN +7%, CACI +4%, TPIC +4%, DRS +4%.
    • Trading Down: FATE -49%, GRPH -42%, BBBY -7%, KRUS -5%.
  • News Since The Close:          
    • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) Prepares to File for Bankruptcy Within Weeks. (WSJ)
    • CytomX (CTMX) shares surge more than 50% on Moderna partnership. (MarketWatch)
    • Pfizer (PFE) to Pull Back on Early-Stage Rare Disease Research, Selling Some Major Assets. (Barrons)
    • WWE’s (WWE) McMahon plans to return and sell the company. (MarketWatch)
    • Former Hedge Fund Manager Leon Cooperman on CNBC
      • Says in case of a soft landing — Could see a bottom around 3600 on SP 500.
      • Expects losses for US stocks in 2023: ‘Anybody looking for a new bull market is looking the wrong way’.
    • Tesla Motors (TSLA) Japan To Cut Prices Of Model 3, Model Y By As Much As 9.9%. (Reuters)
    • CACI Intl (CACI) wins $2.25 bln Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency Background Investigation Fieldwork Contract.
    • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) awarded $379.6 million procurement contract to supply Reactive Skin Decontamination Lotion Kit to U.S. Department of Defense.
    • Raytheon (RTX) obtains $208.7 Million Naval Sea Systems contract.
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) secures $139.7 Million contract and $130.7 Million modification contract for US Navy.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Alnylam Pharma (ALNY) Executive Chair Michael W. Bonney steps down, continues on Board as non-independent director; Amy W. Schulman to assume role of Chair of the Board.
    • Annovis Bio (ANVS) Announces New Appointments to Strengthen Its Senior Leadership Team.
    • Broadmark Realty (BRMK) announces that on January 5, 2023 it had received a letter from NYSE Regulation indicating that NYSE Regulation has determined to commence proceedings to delist the Company’s warrants from the NYSE American exchange and that trading in the warrants has been suspended.
    • Gaotu (GOTU) Regains Compliance with NYSE Continued Listing Criterion.
    • WalkMe (WKME) Announces Leadership and Board Changes.
    • Worthington (WOR) Executive Chairman John P. McConnell to step down from board in June 2023.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Aegon (AEG) to repurchase €42.5M shares for share-based compensation plans.
    • Vermilion Energy (VET) resumes share buyback. (see Dividends)
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Aytu BioPharma (AYTU) Announces 1-for-20 Reverse Stock Split.
    • Alterity Therapeutics (ATHE) Announces 1-for-10 Reverse ADS Split (consolidation).
    • Dave Inc. (DAVE) Announces Reverse Stock Split Effective.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Vermilion Energy (VET) raises dividend by 25%..

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -1, Dow Jones +20,  NASDAQ -24,  and Russell 2000 +1. (as of 7:54 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are higher.  Europe markets are trading higher ex the DAX. VIX Futures are at 22.77 from 22.46 yesterday.  Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas lower. $ barely down. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.729% from 3.683% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $16,724 from $16,813 yesterday lower by -0.78%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors:Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Technology, Utilities, Industrials, healthcare, Financial Consumer Defensive, Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners:  none of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrials, and Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Energy, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stocks fell Thursday after strong labor-market data bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to remain tough.  The S&P 500 dropped 44.87 points or 1.2% to 3808.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 339.69 points, or 1%, to 32930.08. The Nasdaq Composite fell 153.52 points, or 1.5%, to 10305.24. All the indexes had notched gains on Wednesday.  Of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors, only energy stocks ended the day higher, gaining 2%. Real estate, Utilities and Information Technology stocks were the biggest losers. (WSJ)

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Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: none of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: CMC, AYI, TLRY of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: GBX (0.42).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: LW, DCT, AUPH of note.
  • Negative Guidance: BBBY, PCRX of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: CTMX +57%, IPSC +17%, MNOV +15%, AEHR +14%, EFTR +12%, WWE +9%, GERN +7%, ALVO +6%, AUPH +6%, TSVT +5%, SRTS +5%, CACI +4%, FUSN +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: FATE -50%, GRPH -49%, BBBY -12%, KRUS -10%, SRNE -7%, WKME -4% of note.

Insider Action: SIVB sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: WWE, BBBY, TSLA, COST, LULU, WFC, ULTA, SI, RUN, FSLR, NOVA, DFC, SYF (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Futures are Subdued Before Key Jobs Data. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Trump Troubles Mount as Special Counsel Gets New 2020 Evidence. (Bloomberg)
  • China may further ease property rules. (Bloomberg)
  • Jobs Preview – Expect to cool but not enough to slow the Fed. (CNBC)
  • Rep Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) struggles to become Speaker of the House enters the fourth day. (Bloomberg)
  • Salesforce (CRM) guts acquisition Tableau as cans CEO Mark Nelson was fired in late December along with others. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. Auto Sales were the worst in over a decade. (CNBC)
  • Another Crypto blow as Genesis Global Trading considers bankruptcy. (WSJ)
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) Alzheimer’s Drug data due out today.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score dive bombs to 3% from 45%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President has lunch with The Vice President, 12:45 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • December Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to come in at 210,000 from 263,000 with the unemployment  rate to remain at 3.7%.
  • November Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to fall by -0.4% from 1.0% in October.
  • December ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to fall to 55% from 56.5%.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Research Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 11:15 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 12:15 p.m. EST
  • Federal Research Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 2:30 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Badger Meter (BMI) acquires Syrinix, a privately held provider of intelligent water monitoring solutions, for £15 million.
  • Bruker (BRKR) Announces Acquisition of ACQUIFER Imaging GmbH.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bloor Street Capital Virtual Battery Metals Conference 2023
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Credit Suisse 14th ASEAN Conference 2023 (01/05/23-01/06/23)
        • Goldman Sachs Global Energy and Clean Technology Conference (01/05/23-01/06/23)
        • Goldman Sachs 15th Annual Healthcare CEOs Unscripted Conference 2023 (01/05/23-01/06/23)
        • Morgan Stanley China Opportunity Conference (01/04/23-01/06/23)
        • Credit Suisse 9th Greater China Technology and Internet Conference 2023 (01/04/23-01/06/23)
        • Daiwa PURE Energy and Healthcare Conference
  • Company Meetings: GBX, SMMT.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BB, MSA.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: