In the July 2026 edition of the CAPIS Monthly Research Briefing, Ed O’Dowd welcomed Brendan Walsh, Managing Director at Markets Policy Partners, and Ed Hill, Partner at Forbes Tate Partners, for a wide-ranging discussion on the policy developments shaping markets and Washington. The conversation explored the Federal Reserve’s evolving leadership, fiscal and legislative priorities in Congress, geopolitical developments in the Middle East and what investors should watch as attention begins to shift toward the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race.
Below is a timestamped recap of the conversation.
00:03: Introduction and Session Overview
Ed O’Dowd opens the call, welcoming participants and framing the session around macroeconomics, public policy and the political developments shaping today’s investment landscape. He introduces Brendan Walsh of Markets Policy Partners and Ed Hill of Forbes Tate Partners, outlining an agenda that spans Federal Reserve policy, regulation, legislation, the war in Iran and the midterm elections.
01:50: Interest Rate Outlook & The Fed’s New Leadership
Walsh reviews the latest inflation data, noting that recent PCE readings have been encouraging even as core inflation remains the Fed’s primary concern. While political pressure continues to build for lower interest rates, he argues that competing economic and political forces make an extended pause the most likely outcome. He also discusses incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s efforts to reshape the institution through new research committees, suggesting the Fed is unlikely to make significant policy changes while reassessing its broader framework. Hill adds that the composition of these committees signals a comprehensive review of how the Fed approaches monetary policy, communications and productivity analysis rather than a continuation of the previous regime.
07:45: Fiscal Policy, “Reconciliation 3.0” and a Potential Government Shutdown
The discussion turns to fiscal policy, with Hill outlining the House’s efforts to advance the “Reconciliation 3.0” bill while navigating disagreements over defense spending and agricultural funding. He explains why appropriations remain stalled, increasing the likelihood that Congress will rely on another continuing resolution to fund the government beyond September. Although a government shutdown remains possible, Hill believes lawmakers are more likely to postpone major fiscal battles until after the elections.
10:50: Legislative Agenda
Hill reviews several of Congress’ remaining priorities for the year, including executive appointments, crypto legislation, FISA reauthorization and additional sanctions targeting Russia. While these initiatives remain active, he notes that legislative bandwidth is limited and many proposals face uncertain paths through Congress.
13:32: Political Landscape Heading into the Midterms
Turning to the political outlook, Hill discusses the indicators he follows most closely, including polling, prediction markets and candidate quality across key races. While historical trends suggest the President’s party typically loses House seats during midterm elections, he cautions that a relatively small number of competitive districts and state-specific dynamics make broad national predictions difficult. Hill adds that Republicans currently appear better positioned to retain control of the Senate, while the House remains considerably more competitive. He also warns that divided government following the election could further reduce Congress’ ability to advance meaningful legislation.
19:09: Looking Ahead: 2028 Presidential Race
Responding to a question from O’Dowd, Hill offers an early assessment of potential Republican and Democratic candidates for 2028. He discusses J.D. Vance’s early position among Republicans while highlighting Marco Rubio and several governors as names to watch. On the Democratic side, Hill notes that the field remains wide open, with former Vice President Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore, J.B. Pritzker, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff representing different ideological wings of the party that could shape the nomination process.
24:34: Iran, Energy Markets and Supply Chain Risks
Walsh examines the evolving conflict involving Iran, arguing that markets are likely to remain in a period of intermittent geopolitical tension rather than move toward a decisive resolution. He discusses Iran’s strategic position around the Strait of Hormuz, the implications for global energy markets and the growing importance of rare earth minerals and critical supply chains for the defense industry. While oil prices may continue experiencing periodic spikes, Walsh expects negotiations to continue alongside limited military actions rather than a sustained escalation.
28:06: Audience Q&A
Following a question on interest rates and committees during the audience Q&A, Walsh elaborates on the Fed’s hawkish/dovish positioning and the potential path toward longer-term policy normalization. Although labor market conditions warrant close monitoring, he believes policymakers are unlikely to cut rates unless employment deteriorates meaningfully. Hill adds that Warsh’s broader institutional review creates an additional incentive for policymakers to avoid significant changes while evaluating the Fed’s long-term operating framework. Walsh also touches on labor market conditions and how they could influence the Fed’s next moves.
30:46: The Complicated Path for Crypto Legislation
Hill concludes by discussing the uncertain outlook for federal crypto legislation. While ethics concerns and political disagreements continue to complicate congressional negotiations, he explains that both the SEC and CFTC are already preparing to use their existing regulatory authority if legislation stalls. Over the longer term, Hill argues that statutory clarity remains important because future administrations could otherwise reverse regulatory approaches more easily through agency leadership changes.
33:17: Closing Remarks and August Preview
Ed O’Dowd thanks Walsh and Hill and previews CAPIS’ August Monthly Research Briefing, featuring Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies, which will focus on technical analysis and market navigation. He closes by encouraging attendees to connect directly with CAPIS and its research partners for additional insights and discussion.