00:00–01:10 — Welcome + Introduction
Ed O’Dowd opens CAPIS’ February Monthly Research Briefing and introduces Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton, who will lead a technical analysis-focused discussion. Katie sets expectations early: her message is not the most bullish, but not the most bearish, either amid a 2026 backdrop defined by uncertainty.
01:10 — U.S. Equity Trends
Katie begins with the big-picture context: the S&P 500 remains in a secular uptrend, but longer-term momentum has downticked, and several overbought/exhaustion indicators suggest correction risk is elevated. Even with a strong start to the year, the market’s internal character has changed—especially as leadership has broadened beyond tech. On the intermediate-term view, she describes a weakening slope in the trend and a “mixed” indicator picture that leans more lower than higher, unless key support holds.
8:40 — Small Caps, Breadth, and Market Resilience
- Small caps (Russell 2000 / IWM): Katie highlights an encouraging longer-term setup that supports the case for maintaining (or even increasing) small-cap exposure relative to an investor’s baseline.
- Market breadth (Advance-Decline Line): She points to improving market participation as a key reason the S&P 500 has remained resilient—helping keep the market from sliding into a deeper correction. She flags a short-term breadth signal that suggests a pullback in participation could develop, which would make the tape more fragile unless leadership re-expands.
12:15 — Sentiment + Volatility: VIX and “Fear & Greed” Index
- VIX: Katy describes a momentum shift that implies the market may be entering a higher-volatility cycle over the coming weeks.
- Fear & Greed Index: Katy characterizes sentiment as more neutral than extreme, but trending lower—suggesting there may still be “room” before the kind of washed-out pessimism that often marks stronger entry points.
14:15 — Rotation Themes: Growth vs. Value, International vs. U.S., and Sector Dispersion
Katie discusses:
- Growth vs. Value: Tech weakness has pulled down growth leadership, reinforcing the idea of a rotation toward value stocks —potentially meaningful, though she notes it may be a bit overdone in the short term.
- International vs. U.S.: Katy highlights improving relative trends overseas (developed and emerging), supporting a more balanced environment between U.S. and international equities.
- Sector Dispersion: She emphasizes that dispersion creates opportunity—one of the reasons Fairlead prioritizes sector rotation as a “middle layer” between index-level and single-stock decisions. She also calls out how different 2026 has already looked at the sector level—energy, consumer staples, and materials have emerged as upside leaders after lagging in 2025, and interest-rate-sensitive areas (like real estate and utilities) are also showing improvement.
23:15 — Cross-Asset Technical Analysis: Oil, Gold, the Dollar, Yields and Bitcoin
Katie closes the main presentation with a cross-asset tour:
- Crude Oil: WTI crude oil is rallying amid a long-term downtrend, with implications for energy equities.
- Gold and Silver: Katy expects a consolidation/pause to play out, but still frames precious metals as an uptrend environment.
- S. Dollar: The Dollar Index is oversold near key trendline support that could support a counter-trend move unless a breakdown confirms.
- 10-year Treasury Yields: Katy frames yields as rangebound, with potential for downside testing within that structure.
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin has entered a cyclical downtrend. Katy notes a sharp downdraft that weakens longer-term momentum enough to suggest 2026 may be an “off year,” even if the longer-term uptrend remains intact.
30:55— Q&A: Mega-Cap Divergence, International Positioning and Crypto Beyond Bitcoin
Ed opens the Q&A by summarizing a key theme: broadening leadership and diversification beyond the Mag7. Katie agrees and adds that mega caps are starting to diverge, making it more of an environment where fundamentals (and earnings reactions) can matter more on a name-by-name basis. She calls out NVIDIA as a near-term focal point with earnings upcoming and outlines the key levels defining its current range.
Ed asks about Japan and India positioning, and Katie describes:
- Japan as holding up well with strong long-term momentum, though she would not be surprised to see a multi-month consolidation phase.
- India (INDA ETF) as a prolonged range/triangle-like formation, with attention on whether it resolves via a decisive breakout or breakdown
Ed asks about other crypto assets beyond Bitcoin. Katie explains that Ether has behaved like a higher-beta version of Bitcoin lately and that downside momentum has not fully resolved across many coins. She references the rotational framework she uses to assess relative strength among major altcoins relative to Bitcoin, noting that some are improving while others are lagging.
44:29 — Conclusion + March Preview
Ed closes by thanking Katie and reiterating that clients can contact Fairlead Strategies for a more tailored, personalized analysis. He previews the next Market Research Briefing, which will feature Ubineer’s Andi Kerenxhi on March 26 for an AI-focused analysis.