0:34 – Introduction: CAPIS’ Ed O’Dowd welcomes back Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies for the December 2024 Research Briefing.
02:11 – Market Trends and Equity Outlook: Katie kicks off with an overview of the current state of equity markets, identifying signs of overbought conditions but stressing that there are no confirmed sell signals yet. A potential corrective phase is anticipated in Q1 2025.
06:32 – Mega-Cap Leadership: Katie discusses the dominance of the Mag 7 stocks, which have driven market performance. She highlights recent breakouts and the potential for continued gains in the short term. While mega-cap stocks remain strong, Katie notes signs of momentum exhaustion and advises monitoring closely for potential corrective signals in early 2025.
09:40 – Sector Rotation: She goes on to explore sector performance, pointing to technology, communication services, and discretionary as leaders in 2024. However, Katie predicts that defensive sectors like utilities and staples may gain prominence in 2025.
10:08 – Small-Cap Insights: Katie reviews the Russell 2000, noting its positive long-term momentum but weaker relative performance compared to large caps, noting that balanced performance between small and large caps is expected in 2025.
19:09 – Commodities and Global Markets: Katie also examines several commodities, noting trends and key support levels.
23:42 – Treasury Yields and Dollar Index: Katie outlines the secular uptrend in treasury yields and the dollar index, advising on strategies to capitalize on long-term momentum.
34:51 – Closing Thoughts and Looking Ahead to 2025: The discussion wraps with a forward-looking focus on the year ahead with Katie highlighting, among other key insights how a shift towards more defensive sector rotation is anticipated for the next six months heading into 2025, reflecting increased caution and a focus on stability as markets consolidate following a strong rally.
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