0:00 – Introduction: Ed O’Dowd welcomes CAPIS clients and industry friends to the April edition of the CAPIS Monthly Research Briefing. He welcomes back returning guest Brandon Walsh of Markets Policy Partners and introduces Justin Kintz of Forbes Tate Partners, a D.C.-based consultancy firm, for a conversation on the evolving U.S. trade landscape.
1:48 – A New Era of Tariffs: Justin Kintz sets the stage by characterizing today’s trade policy environment as one of the most volatile in recent memory. He notes that the Trump administration is reframing tariffs as a fiscal tool, aiming to shift U.S. revenue strategy from income taxes to external tariff collection. This approach is also being used as a geopolitical lever to extract concessions from trade partners while appealing to voters with tax cuts.
5:00 – Liberation Day and Subsequent Market Fallout: On April 1, the U.S. announced a sweeping plan for reciprocal tariffs, which briefly sent markets into turmoil. The administration quickly paused implementation following the reaction. Still, the broader strategy has since continued in other forms, including expanded direct tariffs on China. Justin describes how these initiatives lean on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which is now facing legal challenges, and Section 232 tariffs, which are tied to national security and likely to remain in place for years.
10:50 – Sector Spotlight: Who’s Most Exposed?: Industries most affected by these trade shifts include electronics, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, energy and agribusiness. Walsh highlights China’s dominance in rare earth mineral production — materials that are foundational to the tech, defense, and auto sectors. As supply chains reorient, companies in these sectors should closely monitor USTR-led 232 investigations and prepare for a multi-year lobbying landscape.
15:00 – Tie-in to Tax Policy: Brendan Walsh pivots to fiscal policy, pointing out that current House tax reconciliation efforts assume a permanent extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). To balance the books, the administration may need to identify $1.5 trillion in new revenue, with tariffs playing a symbolic and strategic role. Kintz notes that while direct tax hikes are politically risky, expect to see base broadening or top-tier increases floated as part of the final package.
20:00 – Federal Reserve Outlook: With markets pricing in rate cuts, Walsh urges caution. The Fed is currently in a wait-and-see stance, particularly as tariff-induced inflation could re-enter the picture. If price pressures resurface later this year, rate hikes could return by late 2025, even as the Fed stands ready to provide liquidity if markets become dislocated.
21:35 – China, The Biggest Variable: Kintz and Walsh both emphasize that China remains the wild card. Retaliatory tariffs and restrictions on rare earth exports are already in motion. These moves raise risks across technology supply chains, particularly if the geopolitical rift deepens.
22:30 – Global Realignment and Isolation Tactics: A broader realignment is taking shape: the U.S. is working to build a trade bloc that excludes China, partnering with Canada, Mexico, Europe, and Southeast Asia. In exchange for market access and defense guarantees, these nations may commit to manufacturing in the U.S., eliminating digital service taxes and increasing defense spending The administration has already used tariffs to block oil exports from Venezuela to China, signaling a long-term pressure campaign aimed at reshaping the global order.
28:40 – What to Comes Next: Kintz warns that markets may become desensitized to tariff threats, even as their impacts grow. A new trade architecture—centered on bilateral deals, economic leverage, and strategic insulation—is rapidly replacing the multilateral status quo.
31:45– Conclusion and Upcoming Events: Ed O’Dowd wraps up the session and announces that Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies will join the next CAPIS Monthly Research Briefing on Thursday, May 22, for a technical market outlook.
Watch the full April 2025 Market Research Briefing (featuring Markets Policy Partners and Forbes Tate Partners) below.
