Jon Lantz of CAPIS welcomes John Kosar of Asbury Research to this months research briefing. The two discuss current market trends and where they think the market is headed.
Watch the Briefing Here
John Kosar Predicts Significant Market Moves</font color>
1:25 – John Kosar begins his presentation and states that he believes the market is on the verge of a significant
shift upward.
2:01 – He presents selected charts from Asbury Research’s reports to give an overview of where the market is
and what to look for.
3:40 – Emphasis put on the importance of data in making investment decisions and how Asbury Research
focuses on getting on trends early.
4:43 – Two main questions most investors have: whether to invest and what to buy. Emphasis is placed on the
importance of getting on the market trend and staying with it.
7:01 – Three important factors for determining ETFs potential success: positive trend, relative out performance
compared to the S&P 500, and positive asset flows.
7:48 – Kosar identifies a target of 4250 for the market and notes that getting above 4140 should take the market
to that level, possibly through the summer. He also notes that investor sentiment has been negative for a couple
of months, which usually implies a bottom.
Market Analysis and Investment Strategies</font color>
11:06 – Kosar talks about how breaking through the current levels should take the market to 4200 and discusses
the next support levels.
12:01 – Kosar discusses how the Sox Index breakout targets 3750 as long as it stays above the 200-day moving
average.
13:06 – Percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their 40-day moving average may be a breath indicator.
16:22 – Kosar introduces the Correction Protection Model (CPM) as a defensive model that can be turned into
an offensive model with leverage. He explains that the purpose of CPM is to allow risk-averse investors to
participate in the market with less risk and volatility.
19:03 – A leveraged ETF that they tested with CPM was found to have outperformed the S&P 500 by 5.7
percent each year.
20:01 – Sector ETF Asset Flows model is used for finding the best sectors for sector rotation.
Out performance and Relative Performance Comparisons</font color>
20:31 – Trends have shortened up, even in sector rotation, and what used to be a one to two quarter trend on
average is now six to eight weeks.
21:07 – Kosar highlights that the best two sectors from last week, which had the biggest acceleration of assets
going in, were Communication and Financial services. The worst two sectors, with assets going out, were
Healthcare and Technology.
25:02 – Kosar introduces another model, the cart model. It looks at relative performance comparisons and finds
those that are outperforming. Last year, even in a bear market, they found value in stocks, low volatility stocks,
and the Dow.
27:02 – Another model is introduced that looks for relative performance in multiple time frames, specifically
comparing US and global equities. He notes that this can be a good way to find opportunities overseas.
Examples provided of trades that were picked up early by their model, including France and Spain.
32:18 – Questions
