CAPIS Morning Note – 06/12/26: SpaceX and Stock Market To Infinity And Beyond?

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 1.75% at 7394.30 from Wednesday lower by -1.61% at 7266.99. The S&P 500 sees support now at 7300 from 7400. Resistance is now at 7400 from 7300. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7300 S&P 500 hit its 25th […]

Overnight Summary and Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Thursday higher by 1.75% at 7394.30 from Wednesday lower by -1.61% at 7266.99.
  • The S&P 500 sees support now at 7300 from 7400. Resistance is now at 7400 from 7300. In the last two months, support has moved from 6300 to 7300
  • S&P 500 hit its 25th All-Time Closing High of 2026 last Tuesday.
  • Futures are higher this morning by +27.50 (+0.37%) at 7423.50 on the SP 500 at 6:55 a.m. EDT.
  • Bond Market is higher today on price with the 10-Year Yield at 4.459% from 4.526%.

Executive Summary:

  • Stocks ended its nine week winning streak, with the S&P 500 gaining 19.49% in the last nine weeks. This past week saw the S&P 500 drop -2.59%. We are now up 5.81% from 8.63% since the peak in January on the S&P 500 as of last Friday’s close.
  • U.S. moves into Week 16 of its attack on Iran. Is the ceasefire going to break with recent missile launches by all parties over the weekend?
  • Short Interest Shares Short continues to move higher but dollars short drops $600 billion in last 45 days (last three reports).

Key Geopolitical Events of Note:

  • Economic news of note.
    • Weekly –  Baker Hughes Rig Count of note.
    • Monthly – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment of note.
  • Fed Speakers of Note today: Blackout period.
  • President Trump’s schedule: 
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Signing Time at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Pre-Tape Interview at 5:30 p.m. EDT.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: RH +0.15, ADBE +0.10
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note. LEN

Capital Raises of Note/Pricings:

  • IPO Filings: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed Or Priced:
    • ELVN commences public offering of $250 million shares of common stock and pre-funded warrants.
    • ADUR – Closing $15.54 Million Underwritten Public Offering.
    • FNGR: Form S-1.. Up to 16,531,931 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Conversion of Senior Secured Convertible Note.
    • GLBS up to 16,750,000 Common Shares underlying previously issued warrants.
  • Notes Filed Or Priced: None of note.
  • Convertible Offerings Filed or Priced: None of note.
  • Private Placement:
    • RKDA – $4 Million Private Placement Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Direct Offering: None of note
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders:
    • SNDA files for 17,109,184 share common stock offering by selling stockholders.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AMTB files for 300 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • CNTY: Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • GLBS: Form F-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • LWLG files mixed securities shelf offering.

After The Close:

  • Adobe (ADBE) beat on earnings and revenues.
  • GM awarded a $142.9 million Army contract.
  • First Advantage Corporation (FA) will replace Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc. (KW) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Tuesday, June 16. 
  • US Foods (USFD) awarded a $166.9 million Defense Logistics Agency contract.
  • SpaceX retail demand hits $100 billion. (MarketWatch)

Thursday’s Winners:  

  •  IMDX +4.4%,  FA +3.7%,  PEN +2.7%,

Thursday’s Losers:

  • ADBE -5.6%, LEN -3.4%, ELVN -2.1%

Executive, Corporate Changes:

  • ADBE announced that Dan Durn, executive vice president and CFO of Adobe, is departing the company on June 15, 2026. Steve Day, SVP of Corporate Finance and CFO of Adobe’s Customer Experience Orchestration Business Unit, will serve as interim Chief Financial Officer, effective June 15, 2026.
  • MRVL announces the appointment of Dan Durn to Chief Financial Officer, effective June 15, 2026. 
  • MHK announces that COO Paul De Cock has been appointed as CEO, effective September 30.
  • ASA announces resignation of Axel Merk as COO of the fund.
  • GPK announces its Board of Directors has elected Larry M. Venturelli as Chairman of the Board, effective today.

Dividend Calendar:

  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Friday: None of note.
  • Top Names Ex-Dividend Monday: None of note.
  • WPC increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.94 per share for an annualized dividend rate of $3.76 per share compared to prior rate of $3.72 per share.

Buybacks:

  • SCI announces its Board of Directors has increased the authorized level of repurchases of its common stock by approximately $472 million.
  • AMAL authorized the repurchase of an additional $31.4 million of common stock under its share repurchase program.

What Happening This Morning:

Futures S&P 500 +41, NASDAQ 100 +280 Dow Jones +323. Europe is higher as is Asia. Bond yield is at 4.459% from 4.526% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $63,764 from $63,088.

Sector Action: 

  • Daily Positive Sectors:  Materials, Industrials, Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Financials were the leaders.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy and Consumer Defensive led the way lower.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Defensive and Industrials of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Energy, Materials, Utilities, Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Materials, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Energy, Materials, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: None of note
  • Monday Before The Open: None of note

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beat: None of note. 
  • Missed: None of note. 
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – ADBE of note.
  • Mixed – RH of none.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: After The Close & This Morning – None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Market Breadth improved on Thursday.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%): 

  • Gap Up: YB +12.3%, CBRL +9.8%, AIB +5.6%, STI +5.3%, CLLS +4.5%, HNGE +2% of note
  • Gap Down:  SMCI -10.3%, SUJA -6.7%, SMMT -6.2%, WOLF -5.9%, STTK -5.9%, AKR -3.7%, TSM -3%, GTLB -2.6%, FJET -2.4%, IIPR -2.2% of note.

Insider Action: FBIN ECL RYAN STEP TMCI ALL sees Insider Buying with dumb short selling. None see Insider Buying with smart short sellers. Above $100,000 in purchases with high shorts but no history: VIA of note.

Other Trading Action: None of note.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. Bolded source means paywall.

  • WSJ Lead Story: Trump Says Iran Deal is Close But Tehran Says No Decision Has Been Made. (WSJ)
  • NY Times Lead Story: World Cup Opening Day Sees Tears, Red Cards and Altitude. (NYT)
  • USA Today: Trump Stages UFC Fight at the White House.  (USA Today)
  • Bloomberg: SpaceX prepares for lift off. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks rally further as US and Iran move close to a deal. (Bloomberg)

Economic & Geopolitical:

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today:
    • Federal Reserve Black Out Period
  • President Trump’s schedule for today:
    • Participates in Executive Time at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
    • Participates in Signing Time at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
    • Participates in a Pre-Tape Interview at 5:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Data Out –
    • Weekly
      • Baker Hughes Rig Count out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
    • Monthly
      • June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10;00 a.m. EDT and expected to improve to 46.20 from 44.80.

M&A Activity & Daily: None of note.

Moving Average Table: 76% from 40% of Equities are Positive, and 68% from 8% Bonds are Positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Davidson Technology & Consumer Conference
    • Kepler CEO/CFO Tour
    • Oppenheimer Semiconductor Tour
  • Top Analyst, Investor: KURA MBX of note.
  • Shareholder Meetings: BBY FOUR TOST WW of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • Apple WWDC
    • ODDO BHF Nextcap Forum

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: AMD FORM of note.
Downgrades: ARE TRV of note.